It feels like we are in a bit of a rinse and repeat mode. Shallow high pressures allowing short spells of drier, warm weather (especially in eastern parts) followed by Atlantic lows pushing north west bringing rain, showers and fresher temperatures. This is very generalised of course. No signs of a long settled spell for the foreseeable. What is interesting is how long the WX charts have shown much of Western Europe red and Eastern Europe blue in terms of temperature anomalies. Probably since February!?

I wonder if this is the general pattern for the summer? If so, it will allow increasingly hot weather to push into Spain and France from time to time which then brings the likelihood of brief hot plumes over the UK.  

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger

 

I've heard a long term prognosis for the summer and it's a nice June and July and a somewhat poor August. That's not unusual.

After all a 100 years ago or more and August was percieved almost as an autumn month.

 

You sure about this?

Traditional summer was 21st June to 21st Sept. August has been either joint warmest or second warmest month on average for as long as I can remember - was it any different 100/200 years ago?

I think, though, that Augusts have been the worst-performing summer month since 2003 (in terms of deviation from average temp/sun/rain days)

Edited by user 17 May 2022 14:32:43(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

WX summary temps - week 1 with some good warmth pushing N almost to Denmark but just missing even SE England, also cooler air hanging back over W Russia. Week 2, more evenly distributed with reasonable warmth from England all the way across to the Baltic. Patchy rain across Europe exc Med week 1, on the Atlantic incl NW Scotland (again!) and Pyrenees - Alps week 2 with S England rather dry

GFS Op - current LP W of Ireland  moving to and fro in a N-S direction between its present position and E of Iceland. not drifting across Scotland as yesterday but does manage to throw a trough S-wards Sat 28th before rise of pressure from SW pushes it back to the Atlantic only affecting NW fringes. HP itself peaks at 1025mb S England Wed 1st though a suggestion of something thundery from the S Fri 3rd

GEFS - temps up and down for a few days in the S before settling to a couple of degrees above norm; some local spikes of pptn this week, and then only sporadic and small amounts of rain; the NW staying closer to norm throughout with more rain but more evenly distributed. NE temp profile like NW but rain like SE; SW the other way round.

ECM - more of a zonal flow developing after 22nd and HP well established over UK by Thu 26th

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

 

 

You sure about this?

Traditional summer was 21st June to 21st Sept. August has been either joint warmest or second warmest month on average for as long as I can remember - was it any different 100/200 years ago?

 

I think, though, that Augusts have been the worst-performing summer month since 2003 (in terms of deviation from average temp/sun/rain days)

 

Meteorologically and climatically August has always been a summer month - What I was referring to was how August was perceived pastorally and before the 14-18 War in the countryside it was seen as a borderline autumn month.

Some of this perception I think derived from the catastrophic weather of August 1912. August 1912 still hold the record for "The bad threes".

Those were.

1. The coldest month ever.
2. The wettest month ever.
3. The dullest month ever.

No month before or since has ever held all 3 of these bad records. The rainfall was colossal and culminated in the disastrous flooding of Norwich city centre following a downpour which dropped 200mm of rain in less than 24 hours.

The floodline on a building where the rivers Yare and Wensum meet in the middle of Norwich show a plaque at least 8 feet above my head and I stand 6foot 2 inches tall - So you can get an idea of what it was like.

What was even worse was the flooding was so violent that several buildings collapsed into the rivers killing 6 people.

I've read several times what August 1912 was like, and no way would I want to live through anything like that ever.

🔥

Today's temp summaries maintaining a 'layered' pattern of temps in W Europe from hot in Spain to cool in Scotland but futher east some very cold weather for the time of year coming S from the White Sea. Week 2 sees some warmth creep into S England while E Europe retains its cold pool. Rain fairly well distributed across Europe in week 1, resolving in week 2 into patches on the Atlantic (NW Scotland still damp), W Russia and over the Alps/Pyrenees. Driest in a strip along the W coasts of continental Europe.

Jet - a few bits of W-lies over Britain to start with and then more consistently from Wed 25th for a few days, mostly over Scotland. Not much to be seen after Mon 30th

GFS Op - pressure fairly high with mostly W-lies for the coming week, though a shallow trough briefly moves across Britain Mon/Tue 23rd/24th. HP develops Mon 30th 1025mb to cover Britain, and then slowly drifts N-wards to form a ridge Ireland - Norway with continental (warm, thundery?) LP affecting England

GEFS - for the S, a brief warming, cooler around Wed 25th before the mean steadily climbs to 3 or 4 C above norm Sun 5th (at that stage very fe ens members below norm though disagreement in the lead-up). In the N, the cooler period extends a few days beyond the 24th but does also warm up later.  Today's rain is SE only, most of Britain gets some on the 24th though v little in SW, mostly dry generally after that but the NW continues wet throughout.

ECM - Like GFS to Sat 28th but the HP then develops more quickly and moves N-wards more quickly so by Mon 30th slack LP over Europe is combining with Lp S of Ireland

WX summary charts show some warmth in W Europe and coolth in E Europe week 1 re-arranging itself into a sharper boundary running continuously E-W  with warm, not to say hot, weather from S France to Hungary to S Russia, sharply distinguished from cooler weather to the north. Rain moves from its week 1 pattern with patches in N Sea (Norway,Scotland), Belarus, N Russia to a week 2 with a strip matching the temp boundary above.

Jet weakly across Britain now, stronger and mainly across Scotland for the end of next week. Then it revives from 1st June in a rather fragmentary fashion in the region from the Channel up to the Baltic.

GFS OP places LP between Scotland and Iceland this coming week, throwing a trough S-wards for Tue 24th (995 mb N Sea) before HP covers Britain 1025mb Sat 28th. This HP drifts N-wards allowing NE-lies for a while before slack LP over the continent shifts this direction to weak E-lies around Thu 2nd (maybe something thundery for England) and then finally LP organises itself off W Ireland Sun 5th to bring up warmth from the S for England but cooler SW-lies for Scotland

FAX and BBC show lower pressure across UK for Mon 23rd/Tue 24th, esp BBC which links it to LP over France

GEFS for the S - warm in the next few days, cooler around Wed 25th, then a little above norm for the next fortnight but the hot outliers referred to in previous posts have disappeared  (op & control quite cool at different times). Rain on 23rd/24th, then very little. In the N, similar but the cool spell lasts a day or two longer, and the rain is more general for the period around the 25th with more to be seen at the beginning of June

ECM like GFS but also tending to emphasise the trough on Mon/Tue

Looking at the way the models are going, it wouldn't surprise me if many places record a warmer a temperature for 1st January than the 1st June. New Year's Day this year was the warmest on record, so it's actually very do-able.

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