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Offline Bertwhistle  
#61 Posted : 28 April 2022 19:08:46(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,805
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: springsunshine Go to Quoted Post
I can`t see how the April cet is at 9.4c? I know there have been a few warm days of 17c+ but most nightime minimums have been sub 5c especially recently.Most mornings this week it has felt like January,proper cold and raw,and well into the afternoon before a warming could be felt.I will be suprised if there is not a big big downward correction this month.

 

Not sure in the Bournemouth area where you are, Spring, but the sandy soils in the area make Hurn's lows often much lower - and with N/NE/E ly winds there is a good chance you will pick up low advected temps from the heaths.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline four  
#62 Posted : 29 April 2022 09:15:49(UTC)
four

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 21,293
Location: N.Y.Moors

It will close on 7.0 (-0.3C) here, despite some warm days earlier the past week has been way colder than normal with several frosts.
Offline Stormchaser  
#63 Posted : 29 April 2022 09:16:22(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,067
Man
Location: West Hants

Considering the predominant high latitude blocking pattern with a lot of air from the NE or E, this month should really be coming in cooler than average... but this isn't our father's climate!

I've been astonished by the warmth from this pattern, even with the cool nights here. It seems only the southernmost CET station has experienced those, with higher minima for the northern ones.

My local mean April max looks to be over 1°C above average, in contrast to a mean min over 0.5°C below average. Overall mean about a quarter of a °C above average.

 

Looking ahead at May, I have a feeling it will challenge us. Yesterday's GFS 00z run gave me an estimate for the opening third that was 1.6°C below the 1991-2020 average. Today's 00z has given me one that's 1.7°C above it! It then climbs further to peak 2.4°C above it on 12th... impressive, but is it a red herring or a trend setter? 

 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline ARTzeman  
#64 Posted : 29 April 2022 10:04:18(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
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Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       9.3c      Anomaly      1.5c provisional to 28th

Metcheck                    8.85c    Anomaly      0.83c

Netweather                 9.53c    Anomaly      1.44c

Peasedown St John     9.1c      Anomaly     0.64c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#65 Posted : 30 April 2022 09:42:07(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,147
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       9.3c        Anomaly      1.5c provisional to 29th

Metcheck                    8.80c      Anomaly       0.78c

Netweather                 9.5c        Anomaly       1.41c

Peasedown St John     9.02c      Anomaly      0.52c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Saint Snow  
#66 Posted : 01 May 2022 09:05:02(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Man
Location: St Helens

We've not had the May thread posted yet. 

Has anyone heard from GW? 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Online lanky  
#67 Posted : 01 May 2022 10:03:14(UTC)
lanky

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,046
Man

The Met Office confirmed data seems to be uip already at 9.05C

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Looks like a 4-way tie based on GW's estimate table

GezM

Saint Snow

Spring Sun Winter Dread

all 9.1C

and Hungry Tiger 9.0C

congrats to them all !!

 

 

 

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline Bolty  
#68 Posted : 01 May 2022 11:52:33(UTC)
Bolty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 4,670
Man
Location: Blackrod, near Chorley, Lancs - alt: 156m

A pretty remarkable CET for a month that had a cold start and hasn't really felt overly warm anyway. It just goes to show that a cold first week doesn't always mean a cold month overall, which I think caught many of us out this time.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station

Offline Global Warming  
#69 Posted : 01 May 2022 20:53:25(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Apologies for the delay - the May thread is now up.

April 2022 CET mean

1st - 10th: 6.4C (-1.2C)

11th - 30th: 10.4C (+1.4C)

Month as a whole: 9.05C (+1.0C vs. 1981-2010)

Mean Max CET 14.0C (20th warmest on record)

2022 CET mean (Jan - Apr)

7.07C (10th warmest on record since 1659) [warmest was 2007 with 7.80C)

Edited by user 01 May 2022 20:58:39(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Stormchaser  
#70 Posted : 04 May 2022 09:11:30(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,067
Man
Location: West Hants

April mean sea-level pressure anomalies for:

April 2021

April 2022

Based on those, one could be forgiven for expecting similar temperatures, maybe slightly higher in 2022 due to the mean flow being more toward ENE than NNE.

Yet we have a CET of 6.4°C for 2021, lowest since 1986, and one nearly 3°C higher for 2022!

Pretty frustrating for those who have correctly anticipated the dominant blocking pattern for this month based on events in the stratosphere and troposphere... I'm glad I didn't go all-in on the resulting lower temps, just in case!

 

This excess warmth has been achieved without anything unusual over most of Scandinavia or the North Sea (mean temp anomaly), which suggests to me anomalously warm air frequently followed a clockwise arc around from due west of the UK, where sea temperatures have been impressively high.

Goes to show that you don't necessarily need a westerly dominated month for N. Atlantic sea temps to have a significant impact on how warm it is here - though I suspect it's pretty rare to see high and low pressure areas align in the right way for such a large portion of a month.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#71 Posted : 05 May 2022 08:14:14(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 221
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Aylesbury, Bucks

Isn't that an easterly setup for April 22 ?

With easterlies not being especially known for cold outside the core winter months ?

Please correct me if I'm wrong, trying to learn here ...

Offline Taylor1740  
#72 Posted : 05 May 2022 09:33:49(UTC)
Taylor1740

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/12/2011(UTC)
Posts: 512
Location: Leeds

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread Go to Quoted Post
Isn't that an easterly setup for April 22 ?
With easterlies not being especially known for cold outside the core winter months ?
Please correct me if I'm wrong, trying to learn here ...

Yeah I think so, April 2021 was more direct Northerly hence much colder, this was more North-easterly which isn't necessarily that cold in April

NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Online Frank H  
#73 Posted : 18 May 2022 18:44:18(UTC)
Frank H

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2014(UTC)
Posts: 241
Location: Wrightington, Wigan

 

 

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redmoons1.97
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