Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

 

4.8 minus 0.3* = 4.5 currently? We could end up around 4.6 to 4.9 depending upon the extent of the downgrade

* Months with frosty nights often have a 0.3 or greater reduction

I have a feeling that the correction will be greater than 0.3C. but I hope not!

Met Office Hadley        4.9c       Anomaly      1.2c provisional to 28th

Metcheck                     4.43c     Anomaly       0.28c

Netweather                  4.73c     Anomaly       0.54c

Peasedown St John      4.72c     Anomaly      -0.72c.

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman

Met Office Hadley        4.9c       Anomaly      1.2c provisional to 28th

Metcheck                     4.43c     Anomaly       0.28c

Netweather                  4.73c     Anomaly       0.54c

Peasedown St John      4.72c     Anomaly      -0.72c.

I've bollocksed this one - Went for 6.0C

Met Office Hadley        5.1c         Anomaly       1.3c provisional to 29th

Metcheck                     4.50c       Anomaly         0.35c

Netweather                  4.9c         Anomaly         0.71c

Peasedown St John      4.57c       Anomaly         -0.88c. 

Well, it appears I'll have started this year in better shape than last, as luck would have it. Okay, it didn't take that much of it .

I can't say I'm filled with confidence in my Feb estimate - more signs of high pressure dominating somewhere in the vicinity of the UK, with hints of a drift right overhead for mid-month, in which case it will make a huge difference just how far north it is.

Jan has been far milder for much of Scotland than southern England, demonstrating the differential that can exist between stagnant conditions beneath it and a westerly flow on its northern flank. Had the high not clouded up 22nd-25th, the difference would probably have been even larger owing to more nights falling well below zero.

On the broad scale, the subtropical high pressure belt is exceptionally strong and far north. Only a handful of past winters can rival the current position. Funnily enough, one of those is the notorious 1976... best hope that's not an omen as from what I hear, the drought was tough enough back then and that was with a markedly smaller population (~56.2 million) than we have now (~68.2 million) - there are ~12 million more human beings consuming water each day!

Hoping for a hefty downwards adjustment 

Has there ever been an upwards adjustment or is that not possible? 

Originally Posted by: rcharlick

Every winter where I live (Basingstoke), the weather becomes less attractive as there are no decent spells of frost or even a snowfall event.

I am familiar with the synoptic set-ups that favoured more interesting winters and was expecting something more like 2010 this year but instead no break from the tedious mild pattern.

Is it safe to say that it will just continue to get warmer with eventually no cold outbreaks over winter and heatwaves from early summer onwards? 

Around 2005-2007 there were a minority on this forum predicting that cold winters would not happen again, then came the trio 08/09, 09/10 and the famous Dec 2010. Interestingly there were also a trio of cold winters 1984/85, 85/86. 86/87. These 2 clusters came around the same point in the double [Hale] solar cycle. It will be interesting to see whether a cold winter occurs around or shortly after the next Hale minimum, possibly around 2030.

Incidentally, we do not necessarily need solar minimum for severe winter months to occur. 1947 & 1979 were solar maximum winters.

I have no doubt that, despite the warming trend, we will see some more cold winter months. I expect the factors causing cold winter months to align favourably again at some point.

Originally Posted by: western100

Has the January CET been published yet?

Not yet

Looks like there are 2 days missing from the finalised data (16-17 Jan) but everything else is ready

Looking at the other 29 days and the provisional data for the missing days it looks as though the final figure will be not a million miles from 4.6C

Originally Posted by: lanky

 

Not yet

Looks like there are 2 days missing from the finalised data (16-17 Jan) but everything else is ready

Looking at the other 29 days and the provisional data for the missing days it looks as though the final figure will be not a million miles from 4.6C

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2022

It's there now at 4.58C

Respect and congrats to Whether Idle with 4.60C