6z throws up a decent evolution for the south - definitely the new pub run

It's not out of step with some of the ens members from recent sets, probably just one of the colder ones this time. The duration of the cold shots is also pretty much the same 2-3 days of colder uppers before the feed is cut off.

I still think as long as the HP stays around we're at a higher risk than usual of getting some cold uppers in, although no signs of a prolonged cold feed. Whether the cold is sufficient to kick some lake effect convection off despite the close proximity of the HP is debateable so the main result if/when the cold shots do happen would probably be to drop the temps for a few days. 

ECM ens IMBY also show a few periods where there's more members dipping down below average, notably 20th,  24th ish and 28th ish through to the end of the run. Of course there's also a fair few members which keep the HP too close or too far South to allow any cold uppers, so just a possibility rather than anything else.

All a touch more interesting than mild and zonal or dank and mild, with todays crisp start and blue skies most welcome

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It's not out of step with some of the ens members from recent sets, probably just one of the colder ones this time. The duration of the cold shots is also pretty much the same 2-3 days of colder uppers before the feed is cut off.

I still think as long as the HP stays around we're at a higher risk than usual of getting some cold uppers in, although no signs of a prolonged cold feed. Whether the cold is sufficient to kick some lake effect convection off despite the close proximity of the HP is debateable so the main result if/when the cold shots do happen would probably be to drop the temps for a few days. 

ECM ens IMBY also show a few periods where there's more members dipping down below average, notably 20th,  24th ish and 28th ish through to the end of the run. Of course there's also a fair few members which keep the HP too close or too far South to allow any cold uppers, so just a possibility rather than anything else.

All a touch more interesting than mild and zonal or dank and mild, with todays crisp start and blue skies most welcome

Whilst the northern hemisphere pattern is locked into a strong polar vortex and a persistent high pressure belt to our south then I just don’t see any path to sustained cold.  

As you say, with high pressure in our vicinity there’s at least the chance of a favourable wobble or two. But at least it’s predominantly dry.

Here’s the ensemble mean a week from now:

 

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www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_216_1.png
Looks full of promise for cold……..

Yes if only! However energy to north of jet as ever it may collapse the HP but does seem promising that it's linked to the Scandinavian HP and the Siberian high! We can only hope...

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Whilst the northern hemisphere pattern is locked into a strong polar vortex and a persistent high pressure belt to our south then I just don’t see any path to sustained cold.  

As you say, with high pressure in our vicinity there’s at least the chance of a favourable wobble or two. But at least it’s predominantly dry.

Here’s the ensemble mean a week from now:

 

Cold Arctic Plunge to the USA Esp the eastern states /eastern seaboard as ever and cold air to eastern Europe as ever and mild air to NW Europe so same pattern as always really?

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www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_216_1.png
Looks full of promise for cold……..

Shame it had no support!?

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You can’t take snapshots of a day as a guide to trends. The PV looks as consolidated as it’s been all winter and whilst that’s the case the best you can hope for are brief (as per 22nd) Pm shots and for most of us this doesn’t cut the cake.

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The rest of January doesn`t look to promising does it at which point Winter is 2/3 over and with strong PV and stubborn High pressure to our south February could well go the same way.
All that cold air will of course flood southwards at some point probably spoiling our start to spring .

Whilst everything is just drifting around like this I do recall that if the HP position does change in our favour it tends to happen quite quickly, in just two to three days. So the long term model position may not be that relevant. I think Brian alluded to something like this a couple of days ago.

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GFS is rinse and repeat

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Although the updates are pretty much the same every run at the moment

The HP influence if it continues as it’s shown could lead inadvertently to a coolish month

Frosts look probable inland and this will peg back the CET region for sure

The HP looks very central over the UK at times and if cloud amounts allow. Frosty weather possible

The E QBO may well be a factor in the lack of Westerly weather this winter, we have had very little weather from the west this winter and for a country with a west dominated pattern the QBO may be influencing that.

It hasn’t on this occasion led to a cold winter but there will be other factors to that. La Niña has changed pattern over winter which can yield milder weather and also a strong strat has limited blocking potentials Northwards

The mean temperature IMBY is now 4.1 , once the hadcet adds it’s downwards corrections at the end of the month it could be a cool month

It’s not a month most would prefer as it’s snowless but it’s been pretty frosty so far…..

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Fair play to everyone coming to a model discussion forum finding something to say... the models havent really changed since maybe xmas.

The highlight for me was the pressure wave created by the tonga volcano on friday.

I cant remember a more static weather model position in recent memory... this is up there with the great fog a few years ago before xmas that grounded heathrow...

Zzzzzzz

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Fair play to everyone coming to a model discussion forum finding something to say... the models havent really changed since maybe xmas.

The highlight for me was the pressure wave created by the tonga volcano on friday.

I cant remember a more static weather model position in recent memory... this is up there with the great fog a few years ago before xmas that grounded heathrow...

Zzzzzzz

There was a winter when a huge blob of a high spent the three winter months sitting over The Alps or France. 1989 I think it was??? There was one break when pressure so plummeted that 948Mb was recorded at Portland.

Well, I think it was all in that year, but it was some time ago perhaps it wasn't 1989...Whatever, that was a seriously boring winter.

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I mean. I’d happily just have a few CM of heat they’ve got in Toronto. We are so cursed in this country.

I see February as a winter month , but by mid Feb my interest starts to wane. I start yearning warmth.

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There was a winter when a huge blob of a high spent the three winter months sitting over The Alps or France. 1989 I think it was??? There was one break when pressure so plummeted that 948Mb was recorded at Portland.

Well, I think it was all in that year, but it was some time ago perhaps it wasn't 1989...Whatever, that was a seriously boring winter.

 

Jan 89 had a very HP dominated month but also very mild

Milder than 2022 currently 

 

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I mean. I’d happily just have a few CM of heat they’ve got in Toronto. We are so cursed in this country.

I see February as a winter month , but by mid Feb my interest starts to wane. I start yearning warmth.

My cousin sent pictures of deep snow cover over 40cm and very beautiful.  Most of my life here missing out all the snow we should get every winter here. Will hope to end this missing out by going abroad for a week or 2 where snow still exist. Lapland on my agenda for next year jan when I turn 50 which I turned 49 yesterday.  I was born in Jerusalem when they had 1ft deep of snow which my father was not able to attend my birth.  In fact very cold air will hit Jerusalem this week.  Those HP I see on the models really wasted as if was in summer we would get 2018 set up and daily 25 to 32c temps.

The rest of January doesn`t look to promising does it at which point Winter is 2/3 over and with strong PV and stubborn High pressure to our south February could well go the same way.
All that cold air will of course flood southwards at some pointprobably spoiling our start to spring .

With 3 foot drifts .........................what a shame 

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This winter is the complete polar opposite to the Winter of 2014.

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With 3 foot drifts .........................what a shame 

if only eh would make up for this borefest of a winter we are enduring …..yawn 

This winter is the complete polar opposite to the Winter of 2014.

Unfortunately, the problem is that there's nothing polar about this winter.

I'll get my coat......

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Quite an interesting GFS 18z for what it's worth. Would probably end up a cooler than average January if that came off. A cooler than average but completely snowless January must be quite a rare combination perhaps.

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