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Offline Col  
#21 Posted : 03 January 2022 08:56:37(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,708
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: western100 Go to Quoted Post


 


Thanks GW


Lots going mild for January 



It would be quite easy just to go for a default 1C above average for this month, or indeed most months. However I fell that there were enough cold signals out there to rein that tempation in, therfore I went for something only slightly above average.

Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Offline ARTzeman  
#22 Posted : 03 January 2022 11:25:36(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        11.3c       Anomaly      7.7c provisional to 2nd


Metcheck                     10.57c     Anomaly      6.42c


Netweather                  11.53c     Anomaly      7.34c


Peasedown St John      11.37c     Anomaly     5.92c. 



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Offline Global Warming  
#23 Posted : 03 January 2022 12:17:47(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Thank you everyone for your kind messages that were sent with your January predictions. Looking forward to another year of the competition. Sorry I meant to mention that yesterday.


I have had a few predictions in for the annual CET as well so here is the table for the record.



Table

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl
Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c
Offline Whether Idle  
#24 Posted : 03 January 2022 16:28:28(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 9,191
Man
Location: Dover

Seeing the CET at 11.3 is fairly terrifying with a guess just below the LTA.  Nevertheless, Im hoping for quite a lot of high pressure to bring some foggy days and some chilly nights as the month progresses, and I hope an absence of more record breaking mildness.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Offline Bertwhistle  
#25 Posted : 03 January 2022 16:35:46(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,866
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post


Thank you everyone for your kind messages that were sent with your January predictions. Looking forward to another year of the competition. Sorry I meant to mention that yesterday.


I have had a few predictions in for the annual CET as well so here is the table for the record.



Table



Thanks GW; I'd quite like to do this one as well- but does it have the same deadline penalty-free, given the timescale?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
August 2020: best heatwave since '95
Offline western100  
#26 Posted : 03 January 2022 19:44:48(UTC)
western100

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/10/2010(UTC)
Posts: 494
Location: Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

Its coming down slowly lol


Down to 10.1 IMBY


Cold few days ahead will drop it to 6-7 from my estimate

Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
100m ASL
Twitter…..@Weather4u2
Offline Global Warming  
#27 Posted : 03 January 2022 20:25:41(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post


 


Thanks GW; I'd quite like to do this one as well- but does it have the same deadline penalty-free, given the timescale?



The deadline is more flexible on this one given the annual nature of the prediction. I am happy to keep it open for another day or two so feel free to send in your prediction.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl
Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#28 Posted : 03 January 2022 20:44:53(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 9,298
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post


 


The deadline is more flexible on this one given the annual nature of the prediction. I am happy to keep it open for another day or two so feel free to send in your prediction.



I've just sent you my guess. Cheers again GW.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline ARTzeman  
#29 Posted : 04 January 2022 11:18:55(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met  Office Hadley        10.5c      Anomaly      7.1c        provisional to 3rd


Metcheck                      9.41c     Anomaly       5.25c


Netweather                   10.6c     Anomaly      6.41C


Peasedown St John      9.14c     Anomaly    3.69c.


 



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Offline redmoons  
#30 Posted : 04 January 2022 11:59:05(UTC)
redmoons

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,619
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Watford

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post


Met  Office Hadley        10.5c      Anomaly      7.1c        provisional to 3rd


Metcheck                      9.41c     Anomaly       5.25c


Netweather                   10.6c     Anomaly      6.41C


Peasedown St John      9.14c     Anomaly    3.69c.


 



That must be one of the highest anomalies for the beginning of a month, excluding the first day?

Andrew,
Watford
ASL 35m
Blog - http://www.andrewlalchan.com | Live weather - http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#31 Posted : 04 January 2022 12:36:13(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 238
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Aylesbury, Bucks

I did a double take at those annual CET guesses thinking they might be mad mild Jan predictions !
I am sure one year we will see Jan or Feb records smashed in much the same way as Dec 2015 tore up the record books.
People on here will moan and moan when it happens but I always find an extreme CET interesting whichever end of the scale it's at. Saving a bundle on heating is always a bonus too...

Offline ARTzeman  
#32 Posted : 05 January 2022 10:45:43(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        8.8c        Anomaly       5.4c provisional to 4th


Metcheck                     7.84c      Anomaly       3.68c


Netweather                  8.92c      Anomaly       4.73c


Peasedown St John     7.4c       Anomaly        1.99c.       



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#33 Posted : 05 January 2022 11:26:39(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,809
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread Go to Quoted Post


I did a double take at those annual CET guesses thinking they might be mad mild Jan predictions !
I am sure one year we will see Jan or Feb records smashed in much the same way as Dec 2015 tore up the record books.
People on here will moan and moan when it happens but I always find an extreme CET interesting whichever end of the scale it's at. Saving a bundle on heating is always a bonus too...



This past 3 days shows just what's possible as we learned from Decmber 2015.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.
Offline johncs2016  
#34 Posted : 05 January 2022 22:47:59(UTC)
johncs2016

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 8,653
Man
United Kingdom
Location: The NW of Edinburgh

It's possible that I might be wrong with what I'm about to say, but I am pretty certain that Gavin P. mentioned in a recent video that the Met Office were going to be moving away from using the really old 1961-1991 averages for their CET page (where I will assume that Arty gets the info for his daily updates here, although I'm sure that he will tell me otherwise if that isn't the case), and switching to the much more up to date 1991-2020 averages for that.

Since the vast majority of months are usually warmer than average these days, I'm sure that this will result in those temperature anomalies being much smaller as a result, with more months possibly even being colder than average. I'm almost certain that Gavin P. had said that this change would happen during this month (although as I have said already, I could be wrong there), but that hasn't happened yet.

I am therefore wondering whether or not, anyone knows of any plans by the Met Office to start using those newer averages for the CET anamolies instead of the old ones, and possibly even when that is likely to happen.

Edited by user 06 January 2022 12:11:22(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Offline ARTzeman  
#35 Posted : 06 January 2022 11:58:19(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 Go to Quoted Post
It's possible that I might be wrong with what I'm about to say, but I am pretty certain that Gavin P. mentioned in a recent video that the Met Office were going to be moving away from using the really old 1961-2020 averages for their CET page (where I will assume that Arty gets the info for his daily updates here, although I'm sure that he will tell me otherwise if that isn't the case), and switching to the much more up to date 1991-2020 averages for that.

Since the vast majority of months are usually warmer than average these days, I'm sure that this will result in those temperature anomalies being much smaller as a result, with more months possibly even being colder than average. I'm almost certain that Gavin P. had said that this change would happen during this month (although as I have said already, I could be wrong there), but that hasn't happened yet.

I am therefore wondering whether or not, anyone knows of any plans by the Met Office to start using those newer averages for the CET anamolies instead of the old ones, and possibly even when that is likely to happen.


I Have enquired to Met Office who will reply soon.


They may be staying with the present figures due to climate warming.



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Offline ARTzeman  
#36 Posted : 06 January 2022 12:01:42(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        7.7c       Anomaly      4.3c provisional to 5th


Metcheck                     6.57c     Anomaly      2.42c


Netweather                  7.7c      Anomaly       3.57c


Peasedown St John      7.75c    Anomaly       2.5c. 



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Offline johncs2016  
#37 Posted : 06 January 2022 16:16:03(UTC)
johncs2016

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 8,653
Man
United Kingdom
Location: The NW of Edinburgh

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post


 


I Have enquired to Met Office who will reply soon.


They may be staying with the present figures due to climate warming.



Thanks for that Arty.


People often laugh at your typos not just on these threads, but also on the daily CC and monthly precipitation threads even though they are usually very few and far between.


The reason why I have mentioned that is because I realised after posting here that I had made a typo here myself, as I had written 1961-2020 as the old averages when I meant to say 1961-1991.


Luckily, I was able to fix that in my own post but if someone then quotes what I have posted into their reply, I then can't fix that as the only person who can do that is the person who actually made that reply.


 

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Offline Col  
#38 Posted : 06 January 2022 18:38:22(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,708
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 Go to Quoted Post


 


Thanks for that Arty.


People often laugh at your typos not just on these threads, but also on the daily CC and monthly precipitation threads even though they are usually very few and far between.


The reason why I have mentioned that is because I realised after posting here that I had made a typo here myself, as I had written 1961-2020 as the old averages when I meant to say 1961-1991.


Luckily, I was able to fix that in my own post but if someone then quotes what I have posted into their reply, I then can't fix that as the only person who can do that is the person who actually made that reply.


 



Don't worry about typos. Seriously, nobody cares.

Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Offline johncs2016  
#39 Posted : 06 January 2022 20:32:48(UTC)
johncs2016

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 8,653
Man
United Kingdom
Location: The NW of Edinburgh

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post


 


Don't worry about typos. Seriously, nobody cares.



I generally don't worry about typos, but they can be funny at times and there's nothing like a laugh every now and then.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Offline western100  
#40 Posted : 06 January 2022 20:54:08(UTC)
western100

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/10/2010(UTC)
Posts: 494
Location: Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

It’s coming down slowly 🤣
IMBY now 5.9 still very high for January but I’m confident it’ll come under 5 this month

See how cold it gets next week if HP provides good conditions
Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
100m ASL
Twitter…..@Weather4u2
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