This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during January, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard.
To make things a little more fun we also run a competition in this thread throughout the year. This is by no means the only focus of the thread and you don't need to participate in the competition to post here. But it is a bit of fun which many of us enjoy.
The competition is run on a monthly basis and you can participate in just one or two or all of the months. For those who do take part throughout the year there is an annual competition which runs alongside the monthly competition. Full details are set out below. There are no changes from previous years so those familiar with the competition do not need to read through everything.
For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for January should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread.
You can also send me predictions for the average CET for 2022 as a whole if you wish along with your January prediction.
The deadline for predictions is 2359 on the last day of the preceding month (so for January it is 31 Dec at 2359).
Entries after 2359 on the final day of the month will only be accepted at my discretion if I consider there is a reasonable excuse. No entries will be accepted after the 2nd of the month. There is a penalty of 0.2C for each day that a prediction is late.
Here is a reminder of how the CET competitions work for the benefit of everyone but also anyone who would like to join in for the first time. All are welcome to participate.
How do the competitions work?
Each month a new thread is opened a few days in advance of the start of a new month. Your challenge is to predict the mean Central England Temperature (CET) for the following month. The CET is the longest running temperature series and goes back to the mid 1600's. Each month I post some statistics about the CET for that month in recent years as well as a summary of some of the latest model output and long range forecasts to provide some context to assist you in making your prediction.
Predictions can be made either to one or two decimals (the actual data is published to two decimals). The closest person or persons to the final figure at the end of the month are declared the winner for that month. There are no prizes. This competition is just a bit of fun and the chance to amaze your fellow posters with your skill and foresight in predicting the weather (or you can just make a random guess!).
We use the Hadley data for the purposes of this competition which is maintained by the Met Office. Provisional figures are published daily with a final adjusted number usually issued on the first day of the following month.
In addition to the monthly competition there is an annual competition which runs throughout the year. The annual competition keeps a running total of the cumulative prediction errors from each month for each person. Absolute differences are used so it makes no difference if you overpredict or underpredict the CET in any given month. At the end of the year the person with the lowest cumulative prediction error after totalling each of the 12 months is declared the winner for the year. This is always a hard fought contest and requires a consistency of good predictions in order to win.
Summary of important points
- Predictions can be made up to 23:59 on the final day of the month before the one to which the prediction relates. Entries may be accepted up to two dates late but with a penalty.
- All predictions should be made by private message to me.
- Once you have sent your prediction you are only permitted to change it once prior to the deadline. Any subsequent amendments will be ignored.
- You may make a prediction to either one or two decimals. You can predict the same figure as someone else (except for a 2022 whole year CET prediction which must be unique).
- Where two members have the same cumulative prediction error for the year at the end of any month, the order of ranking in the competition table will be determined by which person has had the closest prediction to the actual CET in any month. If there is a still a tie I then look to the second closest prediction for each person and so on until the tie is broken. If the tie cannot be broken (very unlikely by December but can happen in the first couple of months of the year) then each person impacted is awarded the same position in the table.
Missed predictions
If a person participating in the annual CET competition does not make a prediction in any one month (including January) their prediction error for that month will be calculated as follows:
- the upper quartile (75th percentile) of the prediction errors of all the people in the annual competition who did make a prediction for that month will be calculated at the end of the month plus a penalty of 0.4C (to tie in with the penalties for late predictions);
The result of the above calculation will be used as the CET prediction error for any person who misses a prediction in a particular month subject to one further point:
- If, for any person, their average monthly prediction error for all the previous months in the year to date is higher than the 75th percentile of errors (across all entrants), then the person's average prediction error will be substituted instead of the 75th percentile figure. This override is only likely to apply to those people towards the foot of the table who have very made very large errors in previous months and hence is no likely to be of significance to the overall result.
One final important point. If you want to be included in the year long competition you may not miss more than two predictions during a calendar year. If a third prediction is missed that person will be eliminated from the annual competition (otherwise it would mean 25% or more of the annual error being calculated on non-existent predictions which would reduce the credibility of the competition too much). However, that person can continue to make predictions for the purpose of the monthly competition.
Now on to some data for January:
Historic CET summary for January
1971-2000 4.20C (30 years)
1981-2010 4.44C (30 years)
2001-2020 4.72C (20 years)
January 2021 was the coldest January since 2010 with a CET of 3.1C. 2020 was very mild at 6.4C.
Here is a chart of the January CET for all years since 1961:
IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page
Direct link to larger version of the chart chart
Current model output
GEFS - 850's are up and down a bit in week 1 and close to average in week . Surface temperatures look potentially somewhat on the cold side in week 2 although there is a lot of scatter.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=
ECM (de Bilt) shows a similar position to GFS for surface temperatures.
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png
Met Office contingency planners outlook
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-jfm-v1-secure.pdf
Temperature probabilities for January are 30% cold, 65% normal, 5% mild. That is quite interesting as it is very unusual for the mild percentage to be so low. A wet month is also only 5% which suggests an increased chance of blocking, although around a 2/3rds chance of an average zonal month.
3 month figures show 25% for warm and only 5% for cold which suggest January could be the coldest month of the winter.
Edited by moderator
28 February 2022 11:21:00
|
Reason: Not specified