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Online Saint Snow  
#101 Posted : 20 December 2021 10:03:33(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 56,101
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post
Give the guy a break, he will deliver when he's good and ready.

 

You have the wrong end of the stick

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Online Saint Snow  
#102 Posted : 20 December 2021 10:08:15(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 56,101
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Here are the December predictions - sorry for the delay

Table

 

Thanks, GW and, like others have said, don't worry about the delay. Glad you're OK.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Offline ARTzeman  
#103 Posted : 20 December 2021 10:59:50(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,459
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        6.3c       Anomaly       1.5c provisional to 19th

Metcheck                    5.98c      Anomaly        0.99c

Netweather                 6.47c      Anomaly         1.38c

Peasedown St John    7.2      Anomaly          2.3c.  

Edited by user 20 December 2021 11:02:38(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Windy Willow  
#104 Posted : 20 December 2021 11:44:16(UTC)
Windy Willow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,069
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: NW Kent 119.377 m /391.658 feet asl

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Here are the December predictions - sorry for the delay

Table

Life is busy  Thanks for all your efforts 

119.377 m /391.658 feet asl

NW Kent

Offline ARTzeman  
#105 Posted : 21 December 2021 11:24:12(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,459
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       6.1c       Anomaly      1.3c provisional to20th

Metcheck                    5.89c     Anomaly      0.89

Netweather                 6.4c      Anomaly       1.31c

Peasedown St John    6.54c    Anomaly    2.44c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Online Stormchaser  
#106 Posted : 21 December 2021 20:04:15(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,084
Man
Location: West Hants

Thanks for the update GW. Nice to know I'm not out on a limb with a near-average prediction - had that happen more than once this year!

Continuing to see 'neutralising' GFS output, CET-wise. Perhaps even a touch below 5°C to finish, if cold air hangs on right to the end of the year - such an outcome has gained a bit of model support today.

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1473382081044656134


As you can imagine, I've been on a very tension-inducing ride these past few days, with scenarios ranging from an average to mild final week to generally cold or very cold.

A bit of a coming together on 'mostly cold, possible interruption around 30th' by today's 12z set.

The global weather patterns are in an extremely perturbed state at the moment due to a very prolonged Pacific MJO event conflicting with the La Nina base state, so the models are likely to continue having a hard time resolving blocking features, which should tend to feature a lot more than usual for at least a few more weeks.

Which is to say, I'm not anticipating an easy opening month to 2022 for this competition! 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Online Stormchaser  
#107 Posted : 21 December 2021 20:26:53(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,084
Man
Location: West Hants

Just did some calculations using my latest final Dec CET estimate which is just below 5°C.

That would mean SSWD won by a country mile with an annual total error of 8.28°C.

In 2nd would be Saint Snow with 9.08°C, while Bolty would claim the final podium place with 9.38°C.

 

Edited by user 21 December 2021 20:29:30(UTC)  | Reason: Numerical Oddity

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Online Saint Snow  
#108 Posted : 21 December 2021 23:35:58(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 56,101
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

Just did some calculations using my latest final Dec CET estimate which is just below 5°C.

That would mean SSWD won by a country mile with an annual total error of 8.28°C.

In 2nd would be Saint Snow with 9.08°C, while Bolty would claim the final podium place with 9.38°C.

 

 

This 'cold' snap has been a real disappointment. And chances of a proper freeze over the Xmas period to the NY have receded a lot today. 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Offline ARTzeman  
#109 Posted : 22 December 2021 11:17:27(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,459
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        6.0c       Anomaly        1.2c provisional to 21st

Metcheck                     5.7c       Anomaly         9.c

Netweather                  6.28c     Anomaly         1.10c

Peasedown St John     6.54c     Anomaly       1.64c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline GezM  
#110 Posted : 22 December 2021 12:18:47(UTC)
GezM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,404
Man
United Kingdom
Location: St Albans

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

This 'cold' snap has been a real disappointment. And chances of a proper freeze over the Xmas period to the NY have receded a lot today. 

 

Even more so today. I now think that it will be well over 5.0C by the end of the month ....

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline springsunshine  
#111 Posted : 22 December 2021 21:47:32(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,893
Location: Bournemouth

Given the latest mo December's CET is likely to be in excess of 6c
Offline moomin75  
#112 Posted : 23 December 2021 10:37:31(UTC)
moomin75

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,228

Originally Posted by: springsunshine Go to Quoted Post
Given the latest mo December's CET is likely to be in excess of 6c

Reckon my guess of 6.5c is going to be close. Males a change for me to be anywhere near!! 🤣🤣

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline ARTzeman  
#113 Posted : 23 December 2021 12:00:39(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,459
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      5.9c      Anomaly      1.0c provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                   5.62      Anomaly       0.63c

Netweather                6.1c      Anomaly       1.01c

Peasedown St John   6.35c     Anomaly    1.63c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Global Warming  
#114 Posted : 23 December 2021 17:48:19(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Latest CET tracker shows a very warm finish to the month. Record date means are possible on 30th and 31st.

Current estimate is for the CET to finish around 6.5C.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline GezM  
#115 Posted : 23 December 2021 23:25:03(UTC)
GezM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,404
Man
United Kingdom
Location: St Albans

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Latest CET tracker shows a very warm finish to the month. Record date means are possible on 30th and 31st.

Current estimate is for the CET to finish around 6.5C.

Chart 1

Chart 2

What's the prize for the wooden spoon? 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline scillydave  
#116 Posted : 24 December 2021 10:14:35(UTC)
scillydave

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 671
Man
Location: Quantocks, West Somerset, 90masl

Originally Posted by: GezM Go to Quoted Post

 

What's the prize for the wooden spoon? 

 

A spoon......

 

 

 

Made of wood.🤣

Currently living at about 80m asl just off the Quantocks in Somerset.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Sevendust  
#117 Posted : 24 December 2021 10:19:18(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

Originally Posted by: scillydave Go to Quoted Post

A spoon......

Made of wood.🤣

Now that's just silly, Dave 

Offline ARTzeman  
#118 Posted : 24 December 2021 10:58:36(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,459
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          5.9c         Anomaly        1.0c provisional to 23rd

Metcheck                       5.70c       Anomaly         0.70c

Netweather                    6.16c       Anomaly         1.07c

Peasedown St John      6.17c        Anomaly        1.3c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Gavin P  
#119 Posted : 24 December 2021 11:40:24(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,525
Man
United Kingdom

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Latest CET tracker shows a very warm finish to the month. Record date means are possible on 30th and 31st.

Current estimate is for the CET to finish around 6.5C.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Thanks GW.  Another very mild December. 

Amazing to think it's 11 years since we had a cold December (though what a December it was) 

Merry Christmas my friend.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Offline moomin75  
#120 Posted : 24 December 2021 12:09:12(UTC)
moomin75

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,228

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Latest CET tracker shows a very warm finish to the month. Record date means are possible on 30th and 31st.

Current estimate is for the CET to finish around 6.5C.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Ooh. 6.5c would be spot on for me, probably for the first time EVER.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

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