Met Office Hadley        6.5c      Anomaly      1.6c provisional to 16th

Metcheck                     6.20c     Anomaly       1.21c

Netweather                  6.71c     Anomaly       1.62c

Peasedown St John    6.78c     Anomaly       1.88c.      

 

WTF?

How can the CET continue to climb??

I think the current unexpectedly high CET value, coupled with the reality of temps not being particularly cold for the foreseeable and the Xmas period weather looking very uncertain (with perhaps a post-Xmas warm-up), I think the gold medal is safely SSWD's.

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WTF?

How can the CET continue to climb??

I think the current unexpectedly high CET value, coupled with the reality of temps not being particularly cold for the foreseeable and the Xmas period weather looking very uncertain (with perhaps a post-Xmas warm-up), I think the gold medal is safely SSWD's.

Its not been that cold by day and overnight minima have been well above average recently.

I wouldn't rule you out yet as there are still a lot of very cold model runs amid the uncertainty.

Also the CET to date may be too high , a point GW often makes.

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WTF?

How can the CET continue to climb??

I think the current unexpectedly high CET value, coupled with the reality of temps not being particularly cold for the foreseeable and the Xmas period weather looking very uncertain (with perhaps a post-Xmas warm-up), I think the gold medal is safely SSWD's.

Don’t forget the latest value is up to yesterday and it was fairly mild. Today, especially this morning is a different matter and I expect it to go down tomorrow and keep falling.  Don’t give up!  The models can’t quite make their minds up but on the whole, it’s certainly not looking mild!    

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The fat lady hasn't sung but she is certainly warming up...
I am the favourite for sure but that 6.5C figure looks way too high to me - we could be on for an infamous "downwards adjustment" - and next week is looking chilly IMBY which is normally a fairly decent CET proxy in winter (Met Office is calling for 2C max on Weds for instance) so I'm taking nothing for granted at this stage.

Met Office Hadley        6.5c         Anomaly       1.6c provisional to 17th

Metcheck                     6.18c        Anomaly         1.19c

Netweather                  6.68c        Anomaly         1.59c 

Peasedown St John      6.94c       Anomaly       2.04c.        

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Met Office Hadley        6.5c         Anomaly       1.6c provisional to 17th

Metcheck                     6.18c        Anomaly         1.19c

Netweather                  6.68c        Anomaly         1.59c 

Peasedown St John      6.94c       Anomaly       2.04c.        

  Really?  I did not expect that!  

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WTF?

How can the CET continue to climb??

Lowest temp I've had - just down the road from Pershore - in the past week was 5.1c   We're seeing most overnight min higher than ave daytime maxima (and daytime maxima proportionately higher too, until today).   Assuming similar for Rothamsted, that's 2 of the 3 CET stations seeing above ave temps, so no surprise the CET continues to rise.   Should start to drop a little this week.

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This really is turning out like November, with a big climb from below to above average, followed by signs of cold weather sufficient to neutralise the anomaly by month's end.

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1472291077935800321

This projection includes the GFS 12z, which it should be noted is markedly less cold for 23rd-25th than the ECM, UKMO and GEM runs (in that order coldest to least cold).

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GW still not logged in since 3rd December. 

I hope he's alright 

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Lowest temp I've had - just down the road from Pershore - in the past week was 5.1c   We're seeing most overnight min higher than ave daytime maxima (and daytime maxima proportionately higher too, until today).   Assuming similar for Rothamsted, that's 2 of the 3 CET stations seeing above ave temps, so no surprise the CET continues to rise.   Should start to drop a little this week.

While further North we’ve had a couple of below freezing mornings in the past few days. Just shows how localised weather can be!  

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GW still not logged in since 3rd December. 

I hope he's alright 

 Oh dear!  I hope he is too!  I seem to remember he didn’t log in much last December because he was busy with work. I sincerely hope that’s the case now. 

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GW still not logged in since 3rd December. 

I hope he's alright 

Back in December 2016 GW stayed away til Jan 1st 2017 - only then did I know Id won.  Give the guy a break, he will deliver when he's good and ready.

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Back in December 2016 GW stayed away til Jan 1st 2017 - only then did I know Id won.  Give the guy a break, he will deliver when he's good and ready.

Yes!  He deserves a break!  If only we knew he was OK, especially with this cursed virus being rife!  

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Yes!  He deserves a break!  If only we knew he was OK, especially with this cursed virus being rife!  

I wonder if GW is something in accounting, as they're alwasy busy this time of year tidying up the accounts for this quater, in order to get something of a Christmas break. Or he may not, but it would make sense. 

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Maybe GW is actually Father Christmas

Met Office Hadley      6.4c      Anomaly      1.6c provisional to 18th

Metcheck                   6.10c    Anopmaly     1.11c

Netweather                6.66c    Anomaly       1.57c

Peasedown St John    6.82c    Anomaly      1.92c.

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Here is the latest December CET tracker. Looking a finish somewhere around 5.2C at the moment. However, the models are all over the place so take that with a large pinch of salt.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Here are the December predictions - sorry for the delay

Table

Here are the December predictions - sorry for the delay

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Table

Yay!  You’re OK!  Don’t worry about the delay!  It’s no problem!  

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Here are the December predictions - sorry for the delay

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Table

Great work as always GW.

 

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