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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 29 November 2021 21:52:57(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during December, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard.  

For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for December should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.     

Historic CET summary for December

1981-2010 (30 years) 4.63C

1991-2020 (30 years) 4.97C  

2001-2020 (last 20 years) 5.07C  

Last December was close to average at 4.8C. 2015 saw the record CET of 9.7C. We have not had a colder than average December since 2010. 

Here is a chart of the December CET for all years since 1961    

Direct link to a larger version of the chart

Current model output     

GEFS - 850's show a lot of scatter. Generally a little below average for the first couple of weeks. No signal beyond that. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=99&lid=ENS&bw= 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM (de Bilt) shows surface temperatures looking cold from the 6th to the 12th before things warm up at the end of the run. That perhaps shows what many of the models are hinting at right now - cold weather to our east with the UK on the boundary. 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png 

Met Office contingency planners outlook  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-djfv1secure.pdf

Mild December twice as likely as normal.

Probability of a cold winter also looking quite low.

Edited by moderator 31 January 2022 11:07:14(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

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Offline ARTzeman  
#2 Posted : 30 November 2021 10:13:08(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Prediction in. Hope it goes low. Thank you for running the monthly competion.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Caz  
#3 Posted : 30 November 2021 15:47:39(UTC)
Caz

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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Mine’s in too!     Hoping not to end the year at the very bottom.  But hey!  Somebody’s got to be last!   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#4 Posted : 30 November 2021 15:58:54(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Exceptionally difficult month to predict.  Scandi high looks possible but we could end up with south westerlies. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline kendalian  
#5 Posted : 30 November 2021 22:26:55(UTC)
kendalian

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/12/2006(UTC)
Posts: 79

So December completes the 12 month's stats for 1991-2020 and by my reckoning all 12 months have been warmer than their 1981-2010 equivalents. 

10 years ago we completed the 1981-2010 series V 1971-2000 equivalent where 11 out of 12 months were warmer. Only December was cooler which was of course book ended by the Decembers of 1981 and 2010 

Has there been an equivalent continuous warming spell in the CET series? One for the stats gurus!!

 

Offline Bertwhistle  
#6 Posted : 01 December 2021 08:03:09(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Location: Central Southern England

Just sent my bid to GW this morning but think that might imply a penalty. Can't remember whether it's midnight 30th or midnight first the cut-off for penalty free predictions.

Anyone help?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline western100  
#7 Posted : 01 December 2021 08:44:34(UTC)
western100

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/10/2010(UTC)
Posts: 494
Location: Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

Hi

What’s the 61-90 Dec CET please?

Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

100m ASL

Twitter…..@Weather4u2

Offline Frank H  
#8 Posted : 01 December 2021 09:47:43(UTC)
Frank H

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Joined: 01/01/2014(UTC)
Posts: 218
Location: Wrightington, Wigan

Originally Posted by: western100 Go to Quoted Post
Hi

What’s the 61-90 Dec CET please?

4.7c

Offline Saint Snow  
#9 Posted : 01 December 2021 10:56:27(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

Just sent my bid to GW this morning but think that might imply a penalty. Can't remember whether it's midnight 30th or midnight first the cut-off for penalty free predictions.

Anyone help?

 

He said that penalties would be applied this month for entries received after 23.59 on the last day

 

 

Edited by user 01 December 2021 11:05:08(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Saint Snow  
#10 Posted : 01 December 2021 11:06:09(UTC)
Saint Snow

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I'm itching to see the predictions for December 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Frank H  
#11 Posted : 01 December 2021 11:37:39(UTC)
Frank H

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2014(UTC)
Posts: 218
Location: Wrightington, Wigan

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

I'm itching to see the predictions for December 

With a Nov cet of 7.30c you're in second place, 0.44c behind the leader.

So you'll need your Dec prediction to be at least 0.44 different to SSWD's prediction.

Would be useful if GW could issue the December predictions before updating the final November data.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#12 Posted : 01 December 2021 12:24:34(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,778
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

He said that penalties would be applied this month for entries received after 23.59 on the last day

 

 

Thanks Saint. Thought that was the case.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline Saint Snow  
#13 Posted : 01 December 2021 18:53:51(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Frank H Go to Quoted Post

 

With a Nov cet of 7.30c you're in second place, 0.44c behind the leader.

So you'll need your Dec prediction to be at least 0.44 different to SSWD's prediction.

 

 

Aye, I'd worked that out and have made my Dec prediction a tad more away from average than I'd normally do.

It'd be an anticlimax if we were too close to each other.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#14 Posted : 01 December 2021 20:47:02(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

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Man
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Location: Aylesbury, Bucks

Going to be a photo finish...

Offline Saint Snow  
#15 Posted : 02 December 2021 00:34:22(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread Go to Quoted Post
Going to be a photo finish...

 

Have you gone above or below average?

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#16 Posted : 02 December 2021 09:27:02(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

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Location: Aylesbury, Bucks

I've gone for an incredibly safe, conservative guess more or less bang on average.

I would perhaps have been more adventurous if I wasn't leading .

I do think average is more or less where we'll end up . Decembers since 2010 seem pathologically unable to stay cold

Offline ARTzeman  
#17 Posted : 02 December 2021 11:03:13(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Posts: 29,961
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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      7.3c      Anomaly       2.5c provisional to 1st

Metcheck                   4.94c    Anomaly        -0.05c

Netweather                6.82c    Anomaly        1.73c

Peasedown St John    3.62c    Anomaly    -1.28c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Caz  
#18 Posted : 03 December 2021 06:11:16(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 23,637
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Aye, I'd worked that out and have made my Dec prediction a tad more away from average than I'd normally do.

It'd be an anticlimax if we were too close to each other.

It’s about time you won this competition!  You’ve had enough practice by now!  
Mind you, so have I, but I guess you can’t teach an old dog new tricks!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition

Offline Saint Snow  
#19 Posted : 03 December 2021 08:50:57(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 54,336
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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

It’s about time you won this competition!  You’ve had enough practice by now!  
Mind you, so have I, but I guess you can’t teach an old dog new tricks!  

 

I did win it once, I think the first one back in 2009 (?)

I think my 'gaming the system' with my December entry contributed to what was initially the requirement to submit entries by PM for Nov & Dec rather than post them in the thread. 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Saint Snow  
#20 Posted : 03 December 2021 09:07:33(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 54,336
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread Go to Quoted Post
I've gone for an incredibly safe, conservative guess more or less bang on average.
I would perhaps have been more adventurous if I wasn't leading .
I do think average is more or less where we'll end up . Decembers since 2010 seem pathologically unable to stay cold

 

I had a hunch you'd go around average and, given the bouncing around of the models, I had to flip a coin. 

Current output strongly suggests I've gone the wrong way!

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

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December UK Temperature analysis and discussion (Weather)
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December UK Temperature analysis and discussion (Weather)
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