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December UK temperature analysis and discussion
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,714  Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 29,961  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Prediction in. Hope it goes low. Thank you for running the monthly competion. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 23,637   Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Mine’s in too! Hoping not to end the year at the very bottom. But hey! Somebody’s got to be last!  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC) Posts: 8,781   Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire
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Exceptionally difficult month to predict. Scandi high looks possible but we could end up with south westerlies. |
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 21/12/2006(UTC) Posts: 79
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So December completes the 12 month's stats for 1991-2020 and by my reckoning all 12 months have been warmer than their 1981-2010 equivalents. 10 years ago we completed the 1981-2010 series V 1971-2000 equivalent where 11 out of 12 months were warmer. Only December was cooler which was of course book ended by the Decembers of 1981 and 2010 Has there been an equivalent continuous warming spell in the CET series? One for the stats gurus!!
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,778 Location: Central Southern England
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Just sent my bid to GW this morning but think that might imply a penalty. Can't remember whether it's midnight 30th or midnight first the cut-off for penalty free predictions. Anyone help? |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. August 2020: best heatwave since '95 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/10/2010(UTC) Posts: 494 Location: Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
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Hi What’s the 61-90 Dec CET please? |
Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border 100m ASL Twitter…..@Weather4u2 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/01/2014(UTC) Posts: 218 Location: Wrightington, Wigan
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Originally Posted by: western100  Hi
What’s the 61-90 Dec CET please? 4.7c
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 54,336  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle  Just sent my bid to GW this morning but think that might imply a penalty. Can't remember whether it's midnight 30th or midnight first the cut-off for penalty free predictions. Anyone help? He said that penalties would be applied this month for entries received after 23.59 on the last day Edited by user 01 December 2021 11:05:08(UTC)
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Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 54,336  Location: St Helens
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I'm itching to see the predictions for December |
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/01/2014(UTC) Posts: 218 Location: Wrightington, Wigan
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow  I'm itching to see the predictions for December With a Nov cet of 7.30c you're in second place, 0.44c behind the leader. So you'll need your Dec prediction to be at least 0.44 different to SSWD's prediction. Would be useful if GW could issue the December predictions before updating the final November data.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,778 Location: Central Southern England
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow  He said that penalties would be applied this month for entries received after 23.59 on the last day Thanks Saint. Thought that was the case. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. August 2020: best heatwave since '95 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 54,336  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Frank H  With a Nov cet of 7.30c you're in second place, 0.44c behind the leader. So you'll need your Dec prediction to be at least 0.44 different to SSWD's prediction. Aye, I'd worked that out and have made my Dec prediction a tad more away from average than I'd normally do. It'd be an anticlimax if we were too close to each other. 
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Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC) Posts: 220   Location: Aylesbury, Bucks
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Going to be a photo finish...
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 54,336  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread  Going to be a photo finish...
Have you gone above or below average? 
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Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC) Posts: 220   Location: Aylesbury, Bucks
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I've gone for an incredibly safe, conservative guess more or less bang on average. I would perhaps have been more adventurous if I wasn't leading . I do think average is more or less where we'll end up . Decembers since 2010 seem pathologically unable to stay cold
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 29,961  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 7.3c Anomaly 2.5c provisional to 1st Metcheck 4.94c Anomaly -0.05c Netweather 6.82c Anomaly 1.73c Peasedown St John 3.62c Anomaly -1.28c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 23,637   Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow  Aye, I'd worked that out and have made my Dec prediction a tad more away from average than I'd normally do. It'd be an anticlimax if we were too close to each other. 
It’s about time you won this competition! You’ve had enough practice by now!  Mind you, so have I, but I guess you can’t teach an old dog new tricks!  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 54,336  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Caz  It’s about time you won this competition! You’ve had enough practice by now!  Mind you, so have I, but I guess you can’t teach an old dog new tricks!  I did win it once, I think the first one back in 2009 (?) I think my 'gaming the system' with my December entry contributed to what was initially the requirement to submit entries by PM for Nov & Dec rather than post them in the thread. |
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 54,336  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread  I've gone for an incredibly safe, conservative guess more or less bang on average. I would perhaps have been more adventurous if I wasn't leading . I do think average is more or less where we'll end up . Decembers since 2010 seem pathologically unable to stay cold I had a hunch you'd go around average and, given the bouncing around of the models, I had to flip a coin. Current output strongly suggests I've gone the wrong way! 
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Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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December UK temperature analysis and discussion
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