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Offline Quantum  
#61 Posted : 23 November 2021 11:20:16(UTC)
Quantum

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Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 24,504

Originally Posted by: polarwind Go to Quoted Post

Have you seen this news -

Ships stuck in Arctic Ice ..... because of early freeze.

I wonder what position JAXA sea ice extent will move to in a months time?

I'd be very surprised if it lasts, and fully expect us to return to the bottom 5. Will be delighted if I'm wrong ofc.

I think long term ice loss trends have been less pronounced in Spring/Autumn; by the time we get to January it would be genuinely unexpected if we hold this position.

 

2021/2022 Snow days:

26th November

27th November

28th November

2nd December

6th January

7th January

Total: 6 days with snow/sleet falling.

Online Gandalf The White  
#62 Posted : 23 November 2021 11:49:31(UTC)
Gandalf The White

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Originally Posted by: polarwind Go to Quoted Post

Have you seen this news -

Ships stuck in Arctic Ice ..... because of early freeze.

I wonder what position JAXA sea ice extent will move to in a months time?

Yes, Four posted about it yesterday.  The article starts off by suggesting the weather forecast was wrong and that’s why they got stuck.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E

Offline Russwirral  
#63 Posted : 23 November 2021 14:31:01(UTC)
Russwirral

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Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post

 

I'd be very surprised if it lasts, and fully expect us to return to the bottom 5. Will be delighted if I'm wrong ofc.

I think long term ice loss trends have been less pronounced in Spring/Autumn; by the time we get to January it would be genuinely unexpected if we hold this position.

 

http://www.climate4you.com/SnowCover.htm 

yeh there does seem to be a ceiling to ice extent.  although saying that we went from a position to be way ahead of the curve, to a massive catchup the other week, to looking like accelerating away again and advancing the ice coverage.

 

So it seems maybe there is a ceiling to get to, and maybe this year is just one route to that final picture.  Of course -with you - would love to be wrong and we see excessive ice this year.  

Offline Russwirral  
#64 Posted : 23 November 2021 14:33:43(UTC)
Russwirral

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Would also be interesting if this could somehow be linked to suppression of human movements and CO2 emissions during the last 18-22 months.

Just imagine there was such an impact that could be linked. Facinating.

Offline Chunky Pea  
#65 Posted : 23 November 2021 19:17:51(UTC)
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Ireland
Location: East Galway, Ireland 35 m asl

Originally Posted by: Russwirral Go to Quoted Post
Would also be interesting if this could somehow be linked to suppression of human movements and CO2 emissions during the last 18-22 months.

Just imagine there was such an impact that could be linked. Facinating.

Interesting theory. Also, the 'PDO' seems to be going into a cooler (or is that a 'negative') phase at the moment, which seems to be keeping Alaskan region very cold compared to the rest of the North American Continent. 10 day forecast for example:

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Online polarwind  
#66 Posted : 24 November 2021 20:43:03(UTC)
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Interesting reports from here about the trapped ships and recent ice build up.

the barents observer

Can't see much evidence to support wrong weather forecasts, other than the longer range forecasts being wrong, no doubt based on the very high temperature anomoly (2-4deg.C) experienced along the Russian coast in October and which would have been a big factor. The high speed of the icing seems relevant here.

 

 

 

Edited by user 24 November 2021 20:52:21(UTC)  | Reason: More info.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

Offline White Meadows  
#67 Posted : 25 November 2021 18:34:51(UTC)
White Meadows

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Originally Posted by: polarwind Go to Quoted Post

Interesting reports from here about the trapped ships and recent ice build up.

the barents observer

Can't see much evidence to support wrong weather forecasts, other than the longer range forecasts being wrong, no doubt based on the very high temperature anomoly (2-4deg.C) experienced along the Russian coast in October and which would have been a big factor. The high speed of the icing seems relevant here.

 

 

 

The ‘bad forecast’ theory seems rather daft. Dozens of ships from different regions all simultaneously going by exactly the same forecast. Unlikely. 

Online polarwind  
#68 Posted : 25 November 2021 22:47:13(UTC)
polarwind

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Location: Derby

Originally Posted by: White Meadows Go to Quoted Post

The ‘bad forecast’ theory seems rather daft. Dozens of ships from different regions all simultaneously going by exactly the same forecast. Unlikely. 

I agree.

There are many ships and as I understand it, not all stuck in the same place. 

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

Online Gandalf The White  
#69 Posted : 25 November 2021 23:29:01(UTC)
Gandalf The White

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Originally Posted by: White Meadows Go to Quoted Post

The ‘bad forecast’ theory seems rather daft. Dozens of ships from different regions all simultaneously going by exactly the same forecast. Unlikely. 



The end of that article includes a telling comment which reveals the reality of which way the Arctic ice is heading:

“The complicated conditions with sea-ice is alarming for Russian authorities that are promoting the Northern Sea Route as a future alternative to the Suez Canal. Already by the winter of 2023-2024 there is to be year-round commercial shipping on the route and goods volumes are planned to rocket to 150 million tons already by year 2030.”

So, just three years from now they’re expecting to be able to navigate the Arctic route 365 days per year.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E

Offline doctormog  
#70 Posted : 26 November 2021 06:56:42(UTC)
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Posts: 74,351

Indeed. The new Líder nuclear-powered icebreaker that can travel at over 10 knots through 2 metre thick ice will certainly facilitate that.
Online polarwind  
#71 Posted : 26 November 2021 09:12:29(UTC)
polarwind

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Location: Derby

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post



The end of that article includes a telling comment which reveals the reality of which way the Arctic ice is heading:

“The complicated conditions with sea-ice is alarming for Russian authorities that are promoting the Northern Sea Route as a future alternative to the Suez Canal. Already by the winter of 2023-2024 there is to be year-round commercial shipping on the route and goods volumes are planned to rocket to 150 million tons already by year 2030.”

So, just three years from now they’re expecting to be able to navigate the Arctic route 365 days per year.

Yes, the reality you mention is based on what might reasonably be expected or forecast from the Arctic warming trend which has led to much reduced ice cover there.

However, the speed of increased Arctic ice cover the last few weeks is totally unexpected and goes against the scientists' forecast trend in a big way. The ongoing record breaking snowfalls and/or low temperatures in Siberia, China and Japan should not be ignored either.

In the early late seventies?, climatologists noticed the changes to Arctic synoptics and told those listening, that 'somethings up'.

The same might be said about the rapid increased ice cover and record snow and low temperatures.

Lets see what happens.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

Offline Surrey John  
#72 Posted : 29 November 2021 15:58:50(UTC)
Surrey John

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Joined: 19/10/2007(UTC)
Posts: 982
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Location: West Wiltshire

Latest Baltic Sea temperatures

Some ice now formed near coasts

https://www.smhi.se/ocea...t/produkter/sstcolor.pdf

Corsham, Wiltshire

95m ASL

Offline Quantum  
#73 Posted : 30 November 2021 10:23:48(UTC)
Quantum

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 24,504

Almost no hudson bay ice gives scope for some truly massive gains over the next few days and weeks. I think its likely we will drop out of the bottom 15 JAXA.

 

2021/2022 Snow days:

26th November

27th November

28th November

2nd December

6th January

7th January

Total: 6 days with snow/sleet falling.

Online polarwind  
#74 Posted : 30 November 2021 12:48:23(UTC)
polarwind

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Joined: 04/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 8,879
Man
Location: Derby

Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post

Almost no hudson bay ice gives scope for some truly massive gains over the next few days and weeks. I think its likely we will drop out of the bottom 15 JAXA.

 

Yes Q -I wonder what this chart might look like in a few days time?

see - http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png 

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

Offline Russwirral  
#75 Posted : 30 November 2021 13:09:33(UTC)
Russwirral

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 3,192
Location: Wirral

Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post

Almost no hudson bay ice gives scope for some truly massive gains over the next few days and weeks. I think its likely we will drop out of the bottom 15 JAXA.

 

 

The Core arctic circle is now pretty much ice.  Will be some interesting research papers behind this in a few years.

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Online polarwind  
#76 Posted : 30 November 2021 15:32:02(UTC)
polarwind

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Location: Derby

Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post

Almost no hudson bay ice gives scope for some truly massive gains over the next few days and weeks. I think its likely we will drop out of the bottom 15 JAXA.

 

An interesting read suggesting Quantums outlook and starts -

Although it may take until the end of the month for all Western and Southern Hudson Bay bears (except for pregnant females) to have returned to the ice, freeze-up has finally begun in earnest and today some bears are already heading out to resume feeding before winter sets in. This is 3.5 weeks later than last yearwhen WH bears were first spotted have killed a seal on 31 October.

 

from here -

https://polarbearscience.com/2021/11/26/sea-ice-cometh-to-hudson-bay-freeze-up-has-begun/ 

 

Another example of a 'warm' October and early November followed in late November and early December by a rapid freeze. Seems very unusual to me?

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

Offline Robertski  
#77 Posted : 30 November 2021 22:52:57(UTC)
Robertski

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Joined: 07/06/2008(UTC)
Posts: 1,990
Location: Nottinghamshire

Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
Indeed. The new Líder nuclear-powered icebreaker that can travel at over 10 knots through 2 metre thick ice will certainly facilitate that.

Indeed, it would very interdting to see how much damage ice breakers actually do to the ice. 

Online DEW  
#78 Posted : 03 December 2021 11:12:55(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

PLs' post in this thread but intended for 'Unusual weather' moved as he suggested

I love these grey skies ... God cannot see what you are doing (The poet Stephen Mallarme on a visit to London)
Offline Surrey John  
#79 Posted : 08 December 2021 16:43:01(UTC)
Surrey John

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Joined: 19/10/2007(UTC)
Posts: 982
Man
Location: West Wiltshire

The very cold weather in northern Sweden and Finland has led to coastal icing along just about the whole coast in the northern Baltic

https://www.smhi.se/ocea...t/produkter/sstcolor.pdf

Corsham, Wiltshire

95m ASL

Online polarwind  
#80 Posted : 11 December 2021 15:11:45(UTC)
polarwind

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Joined: 04/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 8,879
Man
Location: Derby

 

Interesting difference between this year's Nov. Ice and last year's

see -

https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/bist 

....... change the months and refresh.

Edited by user 11 December 2021 15:14:12(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

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