Have you seen this news -

Ships stuck in Arctic Ice ..... because of early freeze.

I wonder what position JAXA sea ice extent will move to in a months time?

I'd be very surprised if it lasts, and fully expect us to return to the bottom 5. Will be delighted if I'm wrong ofc.

I think long term ice loss trends have been less pronounced in Spring/Autumn; by the time we get to January it would be genuinely unexpected if we hold this position.

Have you seen this news -

Ships stuck in Arctic Ice ..... because of early freeze.

I wonder what position JAXA sea ice extent will move to in a months time?

Yes, Four posted about it yesterday.  The article starts off by suggesting the weather forecast was wrong and that’s why they got stuck.

 

I'd be very surprised if it lasts, and fully expect us to return to the bottom 5. Will be delighted if I'm wrong ofc.

I think long term ice loss trends have been less pronounced in Spring/Autumn; by the time we get to January it would be genuinely unexpected if we hold this position.

 

http://www.climate4you.com/SnowCover.htm 

yeh there does seem to be a ceiling to ice extent.  although saying that we went from a position to be way ahead of the curve, to a massive catchup the other week, to looking like accelerating away again and advancing the ice coverage.

So it seems maybe there is a ceiling to get to, and maybe this year is just one route to that final picture.  Of course -with you - would love to be wrong and we see excessive ice this year.  

Would also be interesting if this could somehow be linked to suppression of human movements and CO2 emissions during the last 18-22 months.

Just imagine there was such an impact that could be linked. Facinating.

Interesting theory. Also, the 'PDO' seems to be going into a cooler (or is that a 'negative') phase at the moment, which seems to be keeping Alaskan region very cold compared to the rest of the North American Continent. 10 day forecast for example:

Interesting reports from here about the trapped ships and recent ice build up.

the barents observer

Can't see much evidence to support wrong weather forecasts, other than the longer range forecasts being wrong, no doubt based on the very high temperature anomoly (2-4deg.C) experienced along the Russian coast in October and which would have been a big factor. The high speed of the icing seems relevant here.

Interesting reports from here about the trapped ships and recent ice build up.

the barents observer

Can't see much evidence to support wrong weather forecasts, other than the longer range forecasts being wrong, no doubt based on the very high temperature anomoly (2-4deg.C) experienced along the Russian coast in October and which would have been a big factor. The high speed of the icing seems relevant here.

 

 

 

The ‘bad forecast’ theory seems rather daft. Dozens of ships from different regions all simultaneously going by exactly the same forecast. Unlikely. 

There are many ships and as I understand it, not all stuck in the same place. 

The ‘bad forecast’ theory seems rather daft. Dozens of ships from different regions all simultaneously going by exactly the same forecast. Unlikely. 

“The complicated conditions with sea-ice is alarming for Russian authorities that are promoting the Northern Sea Route as a future alternative to the Suez Canal. Already by the winter of 2023-2024 there is to be year-round commercial shipping on the route and goods volumes are planned to rocket to 150 million tons already by year 2030.”

So, just three years from now they’re expecting to be able to navigate the Arctic route 365 days per year.

The end of that article includes a telling comment which reveals the reality of which way the Arctic ice is heading:

“The complicated conditions with sea-ice is alarming for Russian authorities that are promoting the Northern Sea Route as a future alternative to the Suez Canal. Already by the winter of 2023-2024 there is to be year-round commercial shipping on the route and goods volumes are planned to rocket to 150 million tons already by year 2030.”

So, just three years from now they’re expecting to be able to navigate the Arctic route 365 days per year.

However, the speed of increased Arctic ice cover the last few weeks is totally unexpected and goes against the scientists' forecast trend in a big way. The ongoing record breaking snowfalls and/or low temperatures in Siberia, China and Japan should not be ignored either.

In the early late seventies?, climatologists noticed the changes to Arctic synoptics and told those listening, that 'somethings up'.

The same might be said about the rapid increased ice cover and record snow and low temperatures.

Lets see what happens.

Almost no hudson bay ice gives scope for some truly massive gains over the next few days and weeks. I think its likely we will drop out of the bottom 15 JAXA.

Almost no hudson bay ice gives scope for some truly massive gains over the next few days and weeks. I think its likely we will drop out of the bottom 15 JAXA.

 

see - http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png 

Almost no hudson bay ice gives scope for some truly massive gains over the next few days and weeks. I think its likely we will drop out of the bottom 15 JAXA.

 

The Core arctic circle is now pretty much ice.  Will be some interesting research papers behind this in a few years.

Almost no hudson bay ice gives scope for some truly massive gains over the next few days and weeks. I think its likely we will drop out of the bottom 15 JAXA.

 

Although it may take until the end of the month for all Western and Southern Hudson Bay bears (except for pregnant females) to have returned to the ice, freeze-up has finally begun in earnest and today some bears are already heading out to resume feeding before winter sets in. This is 3.5 weeks later than last yearwhen WH bears were first spotted have killed a seal on 31 October.

from here -

https://polarbearscience.com/2021/11/26/sea-ice-cometh-to-hudson-bay-freeze-up-has-begun/ 

Another example of a 'warm' October and early November followed in late November and early December by a rapid freeze. Seems very unusual to me?

Indeed. The new Líder nuclear-powered icebreaker that can travel at over 10 knots through 2 metre thick ice will certainly facilitate that.

Indeed, it would very interdting to see how much damage ice breakers actually do to the ice. 

PLs' post in this thread but intended for 'Unusual weather' moved as he suggested

Interesting difference between this year's Nov. Ice and last year's

see -

https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/bist 

....... change the months and refresh.