Global Warming
Monday, November 29, 2021 9:52:57 PM

This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during December, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard.  

For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for December should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.     

Historic CET summary for December

1981-2010 (30 years) 4.63C

1991-2020 (30 years) 4.97C  

2001-2020 (last 20 years) 5.07C  

Last December was close to average at 4.8C. 2015 saw the record CET of 9.7C. We have not had a colder than average December since 2010. 

Here is a chart of the December CET for all years since 1961    

Direct link to a larger version of the chart

UserPostedImage

Current model output     

GEFS - 850's show a lot of scatter. Generally a little below average for the first couple of weeks. No signal beyond that. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=99&lid=ENS&bw= 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM (de Bilt) shows surface temperatures looking cold from the 6th to the 12th before things warm up at the end of the run. That perhaps shows what many of the models are hinting at right now - cold weather to our east with the UK on the boundary. 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png 

Met Office contingency planners outlook  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-djfv1secure.pdf

Mild December twice as likely as normal.

Probability of a cold winter also looking quite low.


ARTzeman
Tuesday, November 30, 2021 10:13:08 AM

Prediction in. Hope it goes low. Thank you for running the monthly competion.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Tuesday, November 30, 2021 3:47:39 PM

Mine’s in too!     Hoping not to end the year at the very bottom.  But hey!  Somebody’s got to be last!   


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Ally Pally Snowman
Tuesday, November 30, 2021 3:58:54 PM

Exceptionally difficult month to predict.  Scandi high looks possible but we could end up with south westerlies. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
kendalian
Tuesday, November 30, 2021 10:26:55 PM

So December completes the 12 month's stats for 1991-2020 and by my reckoning all 12 months have been warmer than their 1981-2010 equivalents. 

10 years ago we completed the 1981-2010 series V 1971-2000 equivalent where 11 out of 12 months were warmer. Only December was cooler which was of course book ended by the Decembers of 1981 and 2010 

Has there been an equivalent continuous warming spell in the CET series? One for the stats gurus!!

 

Bertwhistle
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 8:03:09 AM

Just sent my bid to GW this morning but think that might imply a penalty. Can't remember whether it's midnight 30th or midnight first the cut-off for penalty free predictions.

Anyone help?


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Definition of disappointment: brown birch bolete

western100
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 8:44:34 AM
Hi

What’s the 61-90 Dec CET please?


Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

100m ASL

Twitter…..@Weather4u2

Frank H
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 9:47:43 AM

Originally Posted by: western100 

Hi

What’s the 61-90 Dec CET please?

4.7c

Saint Snow
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 10:56:27 AM

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Just sent my bid to GW this morning but think that might imply a penalty. Can't remember whether it's midnight 30th or midnight first the cut-off for penalty free predictions.

Anyone help?

 

He said that penalties would be applied this month for entries received after 23.59 on the last day

 

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Saint Snow
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 11:06:09 AM

I'm itching to see the predictions for December 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Frank H
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 11:37:39 AM

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I'm itching to see the predictions for December 

With a Nov cet of 7.30c you're in second place, 0.44c behind the leader.

So you'll need your Dec prediction to be at least 0.44 different to SSWD's prediction.

Would be useful if GW could issue the December predictions before updating the final November data.

Bertwhistle
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 12:24:34 PM

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

 

He said that penalties would be applied this month for entries received after 23.59 on the last day

 

 

Thanks Saint. Thought that was the case.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Definition of disappointment: brown birch bolete

Saint Snow
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 6:53:51 PM

Originally Posted by: Frank H 

 

With a Nov cet of 7.30c you're in second place, 0.44c behind the leader.

So you'll need your Dec prediction to be at least 0.44 different to SSWD's prediction.

 

 

Aye, I'd worked that out and have made my Dec prediction a tad more away from average than I'd normally do.

It'd be an anticlimax if we were too close to each other.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Spring Sun Winter Dread
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 8:47:02 PM
Going to be a photo finish...

Saint Snow
Thursday, December 2, 2021 12:34:22 AM

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

Going to be a photo finish...

 

Have you gone above or below average?


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Spring Sun Winter Dread
Thursday, December 2, 2021 9:27:02 AM
I've gone for an incredibly safe, conservative guess more or less bang on average.

I would perhaps have been more adventurous if I wasn't leading .

I do think average is more or less where we'll end up . Decembers since 2010 seem pathologically unable to stay cold

ARTzeman
Thursday, December 2, 2021 11:03:13 AM

Met Office Hadley      7.3c      Anomaly       2.5c provisional to 1st

Metcheck                   4.94c    Anomaly        -0.05c

Netweather                6.82c    Anomaly        1.73c

Peasedown St John    3.62c    Anomaly    -1.28c. 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Friday, December 3, 2021 6:11:16 AM

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

 

Aye, I'd worked that out and have made my Dec prediction a tad more away from average than I'd normally do.

It'd be an anticlimax if we were too close to each other.

It’s about time you won this competition!  You’ve had enough practice by now!  
Mind you, so have I, but I guess you can’t teach an old dog new tricks!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Saint Snow
Friday, December 3, 2021 8:50:57 AM

Originally Posted by: Caz 

It’s about time you won this competition!  You’ve had enough practice by now!  
Mind you, so have I, but I guess you can’t teach an old dog new tricks!  

 

I did win it once, I think the first one back in 2009 (?)

I think my 'gaming the system' with my December entry contributed to what was initially the requirement to submit entries by PM for Nov & Dec rather than post them in the thread. 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Saint Snow
Friday, December 3, 2021 9:07:33 AM

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

I've gone for an incredibly safe, conservative guess more or less bang on average.
I would perhaps have been more adventurous if I wasn't leading .
I do think average is more or less where we'll end up . Decembers since 2010 seem pathologically unable to stay cold

 

I had a hunch you'd go around average and, given the bouncing around of the models, I had to flip a coin. 

Current output strongly suggests I've gone the wrong way!


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

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