Saint this thread is a banging idea 😁
I've spent a good portion of my adult life lurking around the threads of TWO, especially in winter and it's the prospect of snow above all else that excites me.
I come to TWO for the excellent analysis but also because there are like minded people who don't think it's strange to obsess endlessly about the white stuff!
We all know that the chances of decent snow in any given winter are low but part of the fun is the chase and getting caught up in the excitement - it wouldn't be fun if it happened all the time.

So a plea to the "winter is over' fans and the 'it'll never happen' people - let us enjoy our daydreams and snow ramps; we know deep down they're unlikely to come true but there's no need to rain (as it were) on our parade.

Here's to a Dickensian winter everyone!

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Well from Mr Captain of Doom, Moomin, AKA Gloomin, I have a sneaky feeling that this winter is going to deliver. Call it gut feeling, or a feeling in my bones, but the atmosphere just looks more akin to supporting interesting synoptic this winter.
If it does go pear shaped, you have my word I will not be whingeing and whining, but I do think we will see some notable cold this coming winter.

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Saint this thread is a banging idea 😁
I've spent a good portion of my adult life lurking around the threads of TWO, especially in winter and it's the prospect of snow above all else that excites me.
I come to TWO for the excellent analysis but also because there are like minded people who don't think it's strange to obsess endlessly about the white stuff!
We all know that the chances of decent snow in any given winter are low but part of the fun is the chase and getting caught up in the excitement - it wouldn't be fun if it happened all the time.

So a plea to the "winter is over' fans and the 'it'll never happen' people - let us enjoy our daydreams and snow ramps; we know deep down they're unlikely to come true but there's no need to rain (as it were) on our parade.

Here's to a Dickensian winter everyone!

 

Hear Hear

My bones are telling me that this year is different :)

We have had a couple of topsy turvy years as far as the seasons go and I didn’t see ANY snow last winter.

The Atlantic is quiet, the trees are rammed full with berries so I’m looking forward to an entertaining chase to take my mind of the dark winter nights.

Roll on the Stella Pub Runs :)

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As this is a very useful thread for the coming winter - Also it's a thread and area of discussion we can all chat on without cluttering up the MO thread I've decided to sticky this. I'll unsticky it towards the end of February.

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We had none in Nov 2010! But I'd take that spell again in a heartbeat. 

To be honest, the holy grail for me is a cold & snowy spell in the lead up to, and over Xmas. We got that in both 2009 & 2010 (just made it past Xmas Day on both occasions, the thaw winning on 27th and 28th Dec respectively). Was pretty deep snow both times, too. If I get that, I'm fine with the rest of the winter not being up to much

Conversely, we had none at all in Dec 2009 ....  

But yeah, I'd take that scenario any day     Preferably just lasting through till New year.   Don't need any other snow if that happens.   But it won't .....

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Conversely, we had none at all in Dec 2009 ....  

But yeah, I'd take that scenario any day     Preferably just lasting through till New year.   Don't need any other snow if that happens.   But it won't .....

Are you getting that confused with 2010? Dec 2009 brought 2 big drops here (approx 18cm and 17cm level) in the space of a few days. Dec 2010 was very underwhelming with just one decent fall about 1 week before Xmas.

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Are you getting that confused with 2010? Dec 2009 brought 2 big drops here (approx 18cm and 17cm level) in the space of a few days. Dec 2010 was very underwhelming with just one decent fall about 1 week before Xmas.

No, we had nothing here in Dec 2009 - no snow on the ground that winter until January .... (when we did get plenty)  whereas December 2010 was snowmaggedon

http://weatherearthnews.blogspot.com/2010/01/2nd-january-2010-todays-news-britain.html 

http://weatherearthnews.blogspot.com/2010/12/20th-december-todays-news-record-low.html 

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Whatever happens it will be on a knife edge and more runs will, I'm sure, be needed. 

An excellent contribution.

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As this is a very useful thread for the coming winter - Also it's a thread and area of discussion we can all chat on without cluttering up the MO thread I've decided to sticky this. I'll unsticky it towards the end of February.

February? But isn't winter normally over by the first week in January?

 

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February? But isn't winter normally over by the first week in January?

 

Yes, this thread needs a self destruct button, usually around January 10th-17th.  Let's go for a median January 14th for 2022 before the white flag is first raised meaningfully.

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Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March.

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As I recall, most years, Winter Is Over, occurs every year in early December     If the models do not predict 20 days of snowfall in London by the middle of December, that's it 

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Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March.

WIO at the spring equinox usually around March 22nd 

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WIO at the spring equinox usually around March 22nd 

Oi, there’s no rooms for pesky things like facts in here. 

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Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March.

I'm sure that someone from your neck of the woods thinks winter never starts in Aberdeen?

But then again he seems to think that also applies to all four seasons.

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I'm sure that someone from your neck of the woods thinks winter never starts in Aberdeen?

But then again he seems to think that also applies to all four seasons.

Yes, I believe there is only one season here and it’s not any of the four seasons (however that works ).

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Yes, I believe there is only one season here and it’s not any of the four seasons (however that works ).

It reminds me of this set of cartoons about the weather in Seattle…

 

Source: https://theoatmeal.com/blog/seattle_weather

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Yes, this thread needs a self destruct button, usually around January 10th-17th.  Let's go for a median January 14th for 2022 before the white flag is first raised meaningfully.

 

You're talking out of your hoop. 

The White flag does not get raised around that time. 

Mid-January is when focus shifts to talking about 1947.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Anyway - back to the thread: Yes - my bones are aching with pending cold too...With a westerly QBO, a weakfish La Niña, the first winter after the Maunder Minimum, signs of an amplified jet, possible negative NAO, the chances of cold incursions and a locked in blocking pattern emerging are never going to be higher: Yes - if it can happen - it should happen this year. Fingers, legs and eyes crossed... I’m going for a rear-guard (in the face of pending warming in excess of 1.5 degrees ref climate change) rip-roarer of a winter, to send Truimpites for their denial scripts. 

I’ll be happy just to see unsalted and hard pack snow on my lane - like those days of old, unmelted for days...and memorable forecasts of sub 492 DAM air heading over the North Sea towards us, towering snow clouds, like Jan 1987, amid a McKasgillesk narrative of snow on snow - a la 1991...bring it on.

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Where as I am thinking we need the strat to work for us as a La Nina will probably put us on the wrong side of the jet, with a possible slug shaped high pressure in the mid Atlantic effecting us.

So for me looks milder, but maybe with some colder spells as the jet buckles, hope Im talking rubbish and im wrong.

I think the strat warming will be key...