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Online Saint Snow  
#1 Posted : 02 November 2021 09:50:52(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

There's been a few posts popping up in the MO thread looking at longer range and even signals setting up for early winter, so I reckon it's time for a thread where people can ponder the weather for the upcoming winter, and just discuss winter generally - both serious MO-based discussion and the sort of banal crap I usually come out with!

This from Russ on the Wirral caught my eye. 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral Go to Quoted Post
Consistent signals across a number of outputs of a height rise to our North West by mid November.

Could potentially be our first cold spell starting to show itself

There's also some GFS perts been appearing that show some strong/resilient northern/Arctic blocking later in November. I know there's a degree of optimism before the start of every winter along the lines of 'will this be a good one?', but expectations and excitement seem to have been worn down over the years on TWO by a combination of age, cynicism, repeated disappointments, and good/enthusiastic posters being driven away by the perma-miserable.

I don't think TWO will ever recapture the innocent exuberance of the 00's, but those of us who are left standing and those more recent joiners, could at least make an effort in here!

 

 

 

Edited by moderator 03 November 2021 14:56:33(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

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Online Saint Snow  
#2 Posted : 02 November 2021 09:53:21(UTC)
Saint Snow

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To add, TWO is at its best when you get posters who obviously know their meteorology to a high level share their thoughts on how a situation is developing across a wider area than the North Atlantic, explaining how the knock-on effects of certain set-ups impact us.

 

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Online Hungry Tiger  
#3 Posted : 02 November 2021 09:55:02(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Location: South Cambridgeshire

Good idea Saint - Good thread and I hope everyone makes full advanatge of it.

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Online westv  
#4 Posted : 02 November 2021 09:58:16(UTC)
westv

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Location: Kingston upon Hull

Maybe my imagination but it often seems a November with cold and snow is followed by a mild winter.

At least it will be mild!
Online springsunshine  
#5 Posted : 02 November 2021 11:17:01(UTC)
springsunshine

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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

To add, TWO is at its best when you get posters who obviously know their meteorology to a high level share their thoughts on how a situation is developing across a wider area than the North Atlantic, explaining how the knock-on effects of certain set-ups impact us.

 

 

Great to have a dedicated winter thread at last. There are some knwolegable posters on TWO none more so than Gavin P. His reasearch and analysis of every driver of our climate and seasons is second to none. Its well watching his winter updates each week on his you tube channel.Going on those and my limited understanding my bet is this coming winter will be slightly below average,temperature wise and a back loaded one with a cold february/march.

Online Saint Snow  
#6 Posted : 02 November 2021 11:25:52(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: springsunshine Go to Quoted Post

 

Great to have a dedicated winter thread at last. There are some knwolegable posters on TWO none more so than Gavin P. His reasearch and analysis of every driver of our climate and seasons is second to none. Its well watching his winter updates each week on his you tube channel.Going on those and my limited understanding my bet is this coming winter will be slightly below average,temperature wise and a back loaded one with a cold february/march.

 

Gavin's one whose contributions to TWO are sadly too infrequent. I know he has his own channel and will devote most of his resources to that, but he was once a regular here and it's a shame he isn't any longer.

Darren (Retron) is another whose weather-based contributions have reduced. And I know Stormchaser is a bit constrained for commercial reasons. 

There's plenty, too many to name.

It'd be great getting them to share their musings from time to time. It's always appreciated (and perhaps the Mods could crack down on the snide digs some of these people get from certain posters). I know Steve Murr, for instance, can get excited and the weather doesn't always pan out like he's predicting, but some of the abuse he gets is really nasty.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Online Tim A  
#7 Posted : 02 November 2021 12:48:02(UTC)
Tim A

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Joined: 09/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 15,414
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Location: Leeds

Nice to see the return of a wintry thread. When the clocks go back and the 12Z charts start coming out from 3.30pm you know silly season is starting.

I hope we get some good contributions too this winter. I am sure people will start posting again when things look exciting.

Like you say Martin, there is some interest in the charts for late November, Northern blocking and the threat of cold air making its way South, the Met Office also seem to think the potential for some wintry showers later in the month. Potentially a front loaded winter with La Nina, but of course anything could happen.
I doubt any start of winter will ever be as good as 2010 again, such a perfect start to winter.


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

Online Tim A  
#8 Posted : 02 November 2021 12:54:01(UTC)
Tim A

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There is also Brian's new MOGREPS charts to look at, these will prove invaluable when looking at snow forecasts.

Also I note there is a "UKMO EU" 168 hour chart on Wetterzentrale. https://www.wetterzentra...ps/UKMHDOPEU00_168_1.png . Seems identical to the normal UKMO apart from going out to 168hours, a big improvement on that dodgy NASA UKMO 168 hours chart that was posted daily here, which nobody really knew what it was.

Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

Offline Essan  
#9 Posted : 02 November 2021 13:26:44(UTC)
Essan

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Antarctica
Location: Albion

Originally Posted by: westv Go to Quoted Post

Maybe my imagination but it often seems a November with cold and snow is followed by a mild winter.



Last time we had snow on the ground here in November was 2010 - and that winter ended on the 26th December.   And there wasn't a single flake of snow the whole of the following year.

I prefer winters like 2017/8 with a few short spells of colder/snowy weather scattered throughout the season.

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

Online fairweather  
#10 Posted : 02 November 2021 13:31:56(UTC)
fairweather

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2017(UTC)
Posts: 8,988
Location: S.Essex

Well it looks a bit colder for the second half of November at the moment. Average snow this winter would be good. There has been any for a couple of years now here and the last significant spell was 2013. 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Online westv  
#11 Posted : 02 November 2021 13:39:24(UTC)
westv

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You have been a member since:: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 18,523
Location: Kingston upon Hull

Whatever happens it will be on a knife edge and more runs will, I'm sure, be needed. 

At least it will be mild!
Online Brian Gaze  
#12 Posted : 02 November 2021 14:00:21(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Originally Posted by: Tim A Go to Quoted Post
There is also Brian's new MOGREPS charts to look at, these will prove invaluable when looking at snow forecasts.

Also I note there is a "UKMO EU" 168 hour chart on Wetterzentrale. https://www.wetterzentra...ps/UKMHDOPEU00_168_1.png . Seems identical to the normal UKMO apart from going out to 168hours, a big improvement on that dodgy NASA UKMO 168 hours chart that was posted daily here, which nobody really knew what it was.

Met Office 168 and UKV are freely available on TWO. The 168 can be selected here 

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx

 

UKV here 

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Online Saint Snow  
#13 Posted : 02 November 2021 14:14:32(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Essan Go to Quoted Post



Last time we had snow on the ground here in November was 2010 - and that winter ended on the 26th December.   And there wasn't a single flake of snow the whole of the following year.

I prefer winters like 2017/8 with a few short spells of colder/snowy weather scattered throughout the season.

 

We had none in Nov 2010! But I'd take that spell again in a heartbeat. 

To be honest, the holy grail for me is a cold & snowy spell in the lead up to, and over Xmas. We got that in both 2009 & 2010 (just made it past Xmas Day on both occasions, the thaw winning on 27th and 28th Dec respectively). Was pretty deep snow both times, too. If I get that, I'm fine with the rest of the winter not being up to much.

Failing that Xmas Wonderland scenario, I like a prolonged spell (3-4 weeks) at any point, ideally with snow at the beginning. 

The Nov/Dec 2010 spell was wonderfully freezing (and I got an early taster in York at the end of Nov), but bone dry here (a few times the MO forecast snow here, a couple of instances up to 24 hours in advance, but then they backtracked at the final hurdle), until that big frontal fall on the 17th Dec. any other time of year - especially with most other areas getting snow a lot earlier - and I'd have been super-frustrated.

That's why the 5th Jan 10 fall was so good - the deepest snow IMBY in at least 25 winters, and stayed on the ground for about 3 weeks (the bulldozed snow-piles made on the local supermarket car park were still there into Feb)

We had more falls - and probably more total accumulation of snow - in Jan/Mar 2013, with 4 weekend falls (3 of which topped 12cm, the other about 4cm) and a couple of other lighter coverings. But on every occasion, the snow was gone within 3-4 days. It sounds like this would be close to your preferred winter, but for me the brevity of the lying snow made it seem a bit underwhelming (particularly after 2009/10 and 2010/11, and probably not helped by where I work in Manchester getting hardly any snow)

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Online Saint Snow  
#14 Posted : 02 November 2021 14:16:45(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 55,343
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

 

Met Office 168 and UKV are freely available on TWO. The 168 can be selected here 

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx

 

UKV here 

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 to you and Tim for that

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Offline backtobasics  
#15 Posted : 02 November 2021 14:26:08(UTC)
backtobasics

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 465
United Kingdom
Location: Nottingham

Originally Posted by: westv Go to Quoted Post

Maybe my imagination but it often seems a November with cold and snow is followed by a mild winter.

Hope so !!

Online Hungry Tiger  
#16 Posted : 02 November 2021 14:31:17(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,806
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Gavin's one whose contributions to TWO are sadly too infrequent. I know he has his own channel and will devote most of his resources to that, but he was once a regular here and it's a shame he isn't any longer.

Darren (Retron) is another whose weather-based contributions have reduced. And I know Stormchaser is a bit constrained for commercial reasons. 

There's plenty, too many to name.

It'd be great getting them to share their musings from time to time. It's always appreciated (and perhaps the Mods could crack down on the snide digs some of these people get from certain posters). I know Steve Murr, for instance, can get excited and the weather doesn't always pan out like he's predicting, but some of the abuse he gets is really nasty.

Well done for flagging this up - If I catch anyone making nasty/snide remarks - they'll get a ban warning . If they do it a second time they'll get banned for good.

We've got a decent forum running atm and we want to keep it that way.

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Online Saint Snow  
#17 Posted : 02 November 2021 15:25:06(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 55,343
Man
Location: St Helens

If people want to let-off steam, just go to the Up In Arms and share your opinion on Brexit.

 

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Online westv  
#18 Posted : 02 November 2021 15:41:52(UTC)
westv

Rank: Advanced Member

You have been a member since:: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 18,523
Location: Kingston upon Hull

Originally Posted by: backtobasics Go to Quoted Post

 

Hope so !!

 

Shhhhhhh.... 

 

At least it will be mild!
Offline Russwirral  
#19 Posted : 02 November 2021 15:51:10(UTC)
Russwirral

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 3,267
Location: Wirral

Thanks for the mention Saint. Me and you have a very similar take on winters, so always look out for your Posts along with many others.

As with every year, once we get the leaves off the trees, we start looking for signals of wintryness for the season.

Unfortunatley, we learn something new every year which steers us to a marginal nightmare :D

Looking forward to this year yet again, the count down to christmas. If I cant get a snowy xmas, then i would at least take a sub zero shopping experience, with some mulled wine under clear skies and its only 5.30pm. Always fun.

Personally (and hopefully) I think us here in the north west are well over due something decent. For those of you who dont know, give a cold wind direction and there will be a reason it means snow wont fall on us on merseyside. I would argue that some southerners who do poorly for snow, actually do better than us (overall)

Fingers crossed

Offline Joe Bloggs  
#20 Posted : 02 November 2021 16:00:55(UTC)
Joe Bloggs

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 26,160
Location: Manchester

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

We had none in Nov 2010! But I'd take that spell again in a heartbeat. 

To be honest, the holy grail for me is a cold & snowy spell in the lead up to, and over Xmas. We got that in both 2009 & 2010 (just made it past Xmas Day on both occasions, the thaw winning on 27th and 28th Dec respectively). Was pretty deep snow both times, too. If I get that, I'm fine with the rest of the winter not being up to much.

Failing that Xmas Wonderland scenario, I like a prolonged spell (3-4 weeks) at any point, ideally with snow at the beginning. 

The Nov/Dec 2010 spell was wonderfully freezing (and I got an early taster in York at the end of Nov), but bone dry here (a few times the MO forecast snow here, a couple of instances up to 24 hours in advance, but then they backtracked at the final hurdle), until that big frontal fall on the 17th Dec. any other time of year - especially with most other areas getting snow a lot earlier - and I'd have been super-frustrated.

That's why the 5th Jan 10 fall was so good - the deepest snow IMBY in at least 25 winters, and stayed on the ground for about 3 weeks (the bulldozed snow-piles made on the local supermarket car park were still there into Feb)

We had more falls - and probably more total accumulation of snow - in Jan/Mar 2013, with 4 weekend falls (3 of which topped 12cm, the other about 4cm) and a couple of other lighter coverings. But on every occasion, the snow was gone within 3-4 days. It sounds like this would be close to your preferred winter, but for me the brevity of the lying snow made it seem a bit underwhelming (particularly after 2009/10 and 2010/11, and probably not helped by where I work in Manchester getting hardly any snow)

Thats a decent summary Saint.

In terms of this winter - I’m looking forward to the rollercoaster as usual.

Living in the city centre now I’ll take whatever I can get. Lying snow is a bit of a miracle here - certainly anything lasting longer than an hour or so is virtually unheard of. At least my expectations are low. 

A dramatic snow shower or two would be nice - with my new view across the city skyline. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

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