CPF is now publicly available:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1secure.pdf

 

Not good for coldies. These never are, but this is more than most i think.

 

 

Not good for coldies. These never are, but this is more than most i think.

 

What I’m struggling to comprehend is the next issue date being 29th of this month… only 4 days after this one? Just bizzare. Maybe a typo.

Makes you wonder if they just re issued the September paper and changed the dates. 

Op at the high end after the 5th 

WX summaries; temps warm for time of year for W Europe week 1, some cooling week 2. Rain over Uk and France week 1 moving to France and Spain week 2

GFS op - current mild SW driven by LP on Atlantic falling off Sun 31st as this LP moves across UK as a trough and then deepens again 975 mb S Norway Mon 1st then a spell of N/NE-lies before suppressed by HP Rockall 1030 mb Mon 8th but retrogressing with threats from N by Thu 8th

GEFS - significant rain from Fri 29th for the S (earlier in N) for a week, then lessening. Temps drop off at same time with a long spell of below average temps, esp around Fri 5th ca 7C below norm. Snow row figures in 1s and 2s even for the S Coast and in teens for Inverness

ECM - places LP Mon 1st over Scottish Borders and then develops deeper secondary low in the N-ly flow 990mb Rockall Fri 5th

I like this morning's runs. Things turning cooler with a mix of settled weather and some wind and rain too. Perfect charts for Autumn 

Very strong agreement in the GEFS to about 5th of November and looks like being a chilly bonfire night at this range. Still probably too early for snow but could be some transient snow in the North.

Early 1950s bonfire nights IIRC were either tipping down with rain or clear and distinctly frosty - none of this mild cloudy stuff

Much cooler spell on the way after the 29th , a seasonal bonfire nigh approaches 

Pretty much a carbon copy of Septembers update.

What I’m struggling to comprehend is the next issue date being 29th of this month… only 4 days after this one? Just bizzare. Maybe a typo.

Makes you wonder if they just re issued the September paper and changed the dates. 

Bump..

Any thoughts on this?

Right at the death , the East knocks on the door ............................be different on the 18z of course 

Right at the death , the East knocks on the door ............................be different on the 18z of course 

Good to see you posting again Gooner. Always a sign that Winter is fast approaching. 

Even average weather will feel cold after the exceptionally mild September and October.  Must be one of the warmest combined Sep/Oct of all time?

Right at the death , the East knocks on the door ............................be different on the 18z of course 

Hi Marcus - Nice to see you up on top form and posting again! Are you ready for another season of rollercoasters? I am but last year did my head in as it was a 9.5/10 for frustration levels. - in terms of the prolonged cold and snow being so close yet so far, then seeing southern Europe esp Athens get buried in snow etc....and then when we did get snow many couldn't go out to these beauty spots like Dartmoor or Exmoor to enjoy it due to lockdown restrictions.

Let's hope we see above charts like that in the winter time and that charts like that will deliver sustained cold and snow in December over Xmas when we want it. The advantage this year is that we are in an easterly QBO so with weaker zonal winds at 10hpa and weaker PV there is more of a chance of a SSW's developing. 

Hi chaps 

I am hoping for something good this Winter , the good lord knows we are due one 

Hi chaps 

I am hoping for something good this Winter , the good lord knows we are due one 

Worst time to have one though with energy prices so high! I can afford it though, assuming the boiler doesnt pack in!

 

Early 1950s bonfire nights IIRC were either tipping down with rain or clear and distinctly frosty - none of this mild cloudy stuff

I don't recall the early 1950s but even just 15/20 years ago I remember the odd bonfire night that was very cold and crisp.

 

Worst time to have one though with energy prices so high! I can afford it though, assuming the boiler doesnt pack in!

 

just had three  deliveries of logs so it can snow for 3 months for all I care 

just had three  deliveries of logs so it can snow for 3 months for all I care 

LOL - The interesting thing will be how seemingly cool synoptics translate to ground conditions. Last winter wasn't mild on the face of the synoptics but it was nowhere near as cold as it should have been. Cold months are a rarity nowadays

 

just had three  deliveries of logs so it can snow for 3 months for all I care 

Unless there’s a run on matches and kindling….

😉

Unless there’s a run on matches and kindling….

😉

Burn the poor? ....I'll get my coat