Met Office Hadley        12.6c     Anomaly      1.1c provisional to 16th

Metcheck                     11.87c   Anomaly     1.36c

Netweather                  12.55c     Anomaly     2.16c

Peasdedown St John    12.27c     Anomaly    1.22c. 

Met Office Hadley        12.6c       Anomaly      1.2c provisional to17th

Metcheck                      1.90c      Anomaly      1.39c

Netweather                   12.6c      Anomaly      2.21c 

Peasedown St John      12.4c      Anomaly     1.95c.

Met Office Hadley         12.7c      Anomaly       1.3c provisional to 18th

Metcheck                      10.09c    Anomaly        1.58c

Netweather                   12.68c    Anomaly        2.49c

Peasedown St John      12.4c      Anomaly      1.95c.    

Some seriously balmy forecast model solutions appearing for next week, which has raised my rough estimate CET projection.

Even when allowing for up to half a degree Celsius of downward correction from the provisional, there's a growing chance that the month finishes at least a degree above the 1991-2020 average; somewhere in the high 11s to low 12s.

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1450749755072688131

I actually don't mind it being super-balmy in October, but of course I wish I'd been bolder with my CET estimate. I went the right side of average but as of 30th Sep couldn't see enough model consistency to take it very far. The next two days, consistency improved markedly... classic.

Met Office Hadley         12.8c      Anomaly       1.5c  provisional to 19th

Metcheck                      12.30c    Anomaly        1.79c

Netweather                   12.91c    Anomaly        2.52c

Peasedown St John      12.78c     Anomaly       2.33c. 

Met Office Hadley         12.9c      Anomaly      1.6c provisional to 20th

Metcheck                      12.20c    Anomaly       1.69c

Netweather                   12.93c    Anomaly       2.54c 

Peasedown St John      12.54c    Anomaly      2.09c.

Met Office Hadley        12.6c       Anomaly       1.4c provisional to 21st

Metcheck                     11.99c     Anomaly        1.48c

Netweather                  12.72c     Anomaly        2.33c

Peasedown St John     12.5c       Anomaly       2.05c.                      

Latest CET tracker showing a very mild end to October.

This means the CET may now just hold on to 12C at the end of the month.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Met Office Hadley        12.5c      Anomaly       1.3c  provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                     11.88c    Anomaly       1.37c

Netweather                  12.57c    Anomaly       2.18c

Peasedown St John     12.22c    Anomaly       1.77c 

Of course, when you need the CET to drop to get close to your guess, it gets milder until the end of October. Then promises to turn colder just as we go into November..

Tell me about it. I'm in an even worse position than you. There have been hints of colder weather for this month but they never properly materialised. And now with just over a week to go, my prediction is a complete write-off.

Of course, when you need the CET to drop to get close to your guess, it gets milder until the end of October. Then promises to turn colder just as we go into November..

Tell me about it. I'm in an even worse position than you. There have been hints of colder weather for this month but they never properly materialised. And now with just over a week to go, my prediction is a complete write-off.

Latest CET tracker showing a very mild end to October.

This means the CET may now just hold on to 12C at the end of the month.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 2

Even-maybe- 12.02?? 

(Unsure emoti looks pathetic and I can't find a prayer one!)

Latest CET tracker showing a very mild end to October.

This means the CET may now just hold on to 12C at the end of the month.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 2

This is another disastrous month for me!  I’m off on holiday for three weeks on Monday, so I’ll miss the opening of the next thread but I’ve submitted my ‘wild’ guess early.  Just to ensure I fall even further down the table. 

Here are the predictions for October. Most people going above average

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Link to full size table

I've gone way too low - Thought I'd gone for 11.5C in fact went for 11.2C . Should have gone for 12.0C

Met Office Hadley       12.4c       Anomaly      1.3c provisional to 23rd

Metcheck                    11.85c     Anomaly       1.34c

Netweather                 12.5c       Anomaly       2.11c

Peasedown St John    12.21c     Anomaly       1.76c.   

Met Office Hadley       12.4c       Anomaly       1.4c provisional to 24th

Metcheck                    11.83c     Anomaly        1.32c

Netweather                 12.49c     Anomaly        2.1c

Peasedown St John    12.21c     Anomaly        1.72c.  

With the ongoing La Nina event, it's always been likely that a cooler trend would manifest sometime between final third October and mid-November. I banked on it being by the final week of the month but alas, it looks to be in the first week of November instead.

This is the trouble we face with making CET estimates 4.5 weeks in advance: There is such high sensitivity to the exact timing of pattern changes.

So, we have a chillier look to early November but then what? I have a feeling it will be an especially challenging month to anticipate, as there are some conflicting signals from the major driving forces. December will probably have similar difficulties - no easy ride to the finish line I'm afraid!

Met Office Hadley        12.4c      Anomaly       1.4c provisional to 25th

Metcheck                     11.79c    Anomaly       1.28c

Netweather                  12.45c    Anomaly       2.06c

Peasedown St John     12.15c    Anomaly      1.7c.