marting
05 October 2021 18:49:54

Is it too early to be excited by the last line?! Surely never too early.


Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
scillydave
05 October 2021 19:50:35
Catastrophic flooding being reported from Italy after a new 12hr European rainfall record is set - 740.6mm in just 12 hours!!
There were also over 500,000 lightning strikes from the same storm. It must've felt like the end of the world.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Gavin D
07 October 2021 15:46:28

Tuesday 12 Oct - Thursday 21 Oct


A north/south split at the start of this period with unsettled breezy conditions in the north, whilst the south remains largely dry with sunny spells. High pressure and mostly dry conditions are likely to then dominate the UK for much of the period, with only occasional spells of rain likely in the north and east at times. Overnight fog will continue to be a feature of the weather with light winds. Feeling chilly at first. Temperatures are likely to be around or slightly below normal for the time of year, with a possibility of some frost. A change to more unsettled conditions in all regions may get underway in the second half of the period.


Friday 22 Oct - Friday 5 Nov


Turning more widely unsettled across the UK, with wettest and windiest conditions remaining to the north and the northwest and more settled conditions to southern and eastern areas. Moving forward, wider dry spells are likely across the country, with the risk of overnight fog which will clear by day. Through this period temperatures will remain near or above average. There is a chance of a colder settled period becoming established by early November.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Gavin D
09 October 2021 20:21:25

Increasing Likelihood of Extreme Snowfall for the U.S., Scandinavia, and Asia in Future Winters Forecast While Western Europe Will Face Much Less Snow


"On the east coast of the United States and Canada as well as Northern Asia, sufficient temperature conditions remain to forecast extreme snowfalls while their magnitude might also increase. By contrast, the recent increase in temperatures drastically reduces mean snowfalls in Western Europe.


The already observed and predicted intensification of the hydrological cycle does not result in an increased frequency of extreme snowfalls for the Europeans.


Extreme snowfalls remain a major damaging category of extreme weather events, particularly in the northern hemisphere. The predicted strengthening of the hydrological cycle allows for potentially more snowfall, as long as the temperature remains sufficiently cold for snow to occur."


 


https://www.severe-weather.eu/cryosphere/increasing-extreme-snowfall-future-winter-forecast-rrc/

Gavin D
11 October 2021 08:27:24

Friday 15 Oct - Sunday 24 Oct


Dry conditions across much of England and Wales through the start of the period with sunny spells developing after clearance of early mist/fog patches through the morning. Cloudy and windy in the north with a risk of coastal gales along with a spell of rain. Temperatures near average through the start of this period. High pressure and mostly dry conditions are likely gradually become less dominant early in this period with further spells of rain and stronger winds arriving across the northwest. These more unsettled conditions likely to become established more widely towards the latter part of this period. Temperatures likely remaining around or a little above average with night frosts possible in clearer interludes throughout.


Monday 25 Oct - Monday 8 Nov


Generally unsettled across the UK, although the wettest and windiest conditions are likely to remain in the north and the northwest, with more settled conditions to southern and eastern areas at times. Moving into early November, more widespread dry spells are possible across the country, with the risk of overnight fog which will clear by day. Through this period temperatures will remain near or above average. However, there is a chance of colder conditions becoming established in early November.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

noodle doodle
11 October 2021 13:20:44
Daily star has "Snowmaggedon" as its front page

UserPostedImage


Help us Jebus
Gavin D
11 October 2021 14:19:43

Saturday 16 Oct - Monday 25 Oct


To start this period, a band of thicker cloud extends from the northwest to southeast bringing the chance of drizzle. Outside of this area, dry and bright conditions across much of the UK with sunny spells developing. Temperatures mostly near average through the start of this period, although becoming colder in the north with rural areas seeing frost. High pressure and mostly dry conditions across the southeast at first while further spells of rain and stronger winds arrive across the northwest, spreading into southern parts too at times. These more unsettled conditions likely to become established more widely towards the latter part of this period. Temperatures likely remaining around or a little above average with night frosts possible in clearer interludes throughout.


Monday 25 Oct - Monday 8 Nov


Generally unsettled across the UK, although the wettest and windiest conditions are likely to remain in the north and the northwest, with more settled conditions to southern and eastern areas at times. Moving into early November, more widespread dry spells are possible across the country, with the risk of overnight fog which will clear by day. Through this period temperatures will remain near or above average. However, there is a chance of colder conditions becoming established in early November.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Gavin D
12 October 2021 14:48:06

Sunday 17 Oct - Tuesday 26 Oct


Although starting mostly dry in the southeast, a period of unsettled weather begins to form at the start of this period as cloud builds and associated outbreaks of rain develop. These outbreaks are likely to be heaviest in the west of the country. Wind becomes increasing breezy as these unsettled conditions are set to remain across most parts through this period, with showers and longer spells of rain likely across all regions. Winds will frequently be strong across all areas of the UK with an increased risk of gales, especially across the north and northwest. The best of any drier interludes will be found in the south east whilst temperatures across the nation remain around average, if not slightly above.


Tuesday 26 Oct - Tuesday 9 Nov


Generally unsettled across the UK, although the wettest and windiest conditions are likely to remain in the north and the northwest, with more settled conditions to southern and eastern areas at times. Moving into early November, more widespread dry spells are possible across the country, with the risk of overnight fog which will clear by day. Becoming increasingly settled towards the middle of the month with an increased risk of frost and fog. Temperatures remaining near to average throughout this period.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Rob K
13 October 2021 08:59:06
I am probably way behind the times but I watched Brian's latest video forecast this morning, first time I had seen one. Really impressive the amount of detail and charts that go into these. Good work Brian!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gavin D
13 October 2021 20:46:04

Monday 18 Oct - Wednesday 27 Oct


Although starting mostly dry in the southeast, a period of unsettled weather will then develop through next week, with wet and windy conditions likely for all areas, especially so in the north and west. There will be showers and longer spells of rain, with the greatest chance of gales in the north and northwest. There will still be some sunshine between the showers, and the best of any drier interludes will be in the southeast. Temperatures for all will be around average, if not slightly above. Towards the end of next week and beyond, there may be longer drier spells between the periods of wind and rain, these most likely in the south and east of the country.


Thursday 28 Oct - Thursday 11 Nov


Changeable conditions are likely to continue during late October. There are indications that drier interludes may become more prolonged across the south and southeast whilst wetter and windier conditions continue in the north and northwest. Temperatures are set to be around average for the rest of October. Confidence becomes very low into the start of November where widely settled periods could develop periodically with an increased risk of frost and fog, although unsettled periods are still possible. Temperatures in November are likely to remain a little above average overall but with an increased likelihood of some colder spells.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Gavin D
14 October 2021 14:15:34

Tuesday 19 Oct - Thursday 28 Oct


Although starting mostly dry in the southeast, a period of unsettled weather will then develop through next week, with wet and windy conditions likely for all areas, especially so in the north and west. There will be showers and longer spells of rain, with the greatest chance of gales in the north and northwest. There will still be some sunshine between the showers, and the best of any drier interludes will be in the southeast. Temperatures for all will be around average, if not slightly above. Towards the end of next week and beyond, there may be longer drier spells between the periods of wind and rain, these most likely in the south and east of the country.


Thursday 28 Oct - Thursday 11 Nov


Changeable conditions are likely to continue during late October. There are indications that drier interludes may become more prolonged across the south and southeast whilst wetter and windier conditions continue in the north and northwest. Temperatures are set to be around average for the rest of October. Confidence becomes very low into the start of November where widely settled periods could develop periodically with an increased risk of frost and fog, although unsettled periods are still possible. Temperatures in November are likely to remain a little above average overall but with an increased likelihood of some colder spells.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Gavin D
15 October 2021 18:25:28

Wednesday 20 Oct - Friday 29 Oct


Starting off widely unsettled with showery and windy conditions for many although this may improve from the west. A mixture of sunny spells and blustery showers for the east and northeast. Temperatures falling to below average for most increasing the likelihood of snow over higher ground in the north. More settled conditions likely to develop for a time into the weekend with some dry weather for most areas. However, probably soon turning unsettled again as cloud, rain and stronger winds arrive from the west. Unsettled conditions then likely to persist towards the end of October. Temperatures most likely trending up after a colder start to this period. Any further spells of colder weather likely short lived and restricted to the north.


Saturday 30 Oct - Saturday 13 Nov


Through the end of October and early November the weather is likely to be dominated by systems arriving from the Atlantic. Remaining unsettled and windy with the wettest and windiest conditions in the north and west. Driest conditions across the south especially the southeast with lighter winds but the risk of overnight fog at times. From early to mid-November increasing chance of settled weather but confidence of this is very low. Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most. Perhaps some colder spells and an increasing chance of frost and fog towards the end of this period but confidence of this is very low.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Gavin D
17 October 2021 16:13:49

Friday 22 Oct - Sunday 31 Oct


Sunny spells and showers for most areas at the start of this period with some places remaining dry. Feeling breezy at times especially along northern, eastern and southern coasts. Temperatures falling to below average for most across the UK, increasing the likelihood of snow and wintery conditions over higher ground restricted to northern areas. It will likely turn unsettled again over the weekend as cloud, rain and stronger winds arrive from the west. Unsettled conditions then likely to persist towards the end of October across the UK. Temperatures most likely trending up after a colder start to this period. Any further spells of colder weather likely short lived and restricted to the north of the UK.


Monday 1 Nov - Monday 15 Nov


Through the end of October and early November the weather is likely to be dominated by systems arriving from the Atlantic. Remaining unsettled and windy with the wettest and windiest conditions in the north and west. Driest conditions across the south especially the southeast with lighter winds but the risk of overnight fog at times. From early to mid-November increasing chance of settled weather but confidence of this is very low. Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most. Perhaps some colder spells and an increasing chance of frost and fog towards the end of this period but confidence of this is very low.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Gavin D
18 October 2021 19:03:07

Saturday 23 Oct - Monday 1 Nov


A dry start to the period Saturday staying mainly dry and bright in parts of the south and east through the day, outbreaks of rain possible across the northwest at first, spreading eastward. Turning windier again with a chance of coastal gales in the west. Through the first half of the period it will settled, especially in the west. Initially cold, with chance of overnight rural frost, and showers wintry over highest ground. Temperatures trending upwards through the period. The rest of October will be dominated by weather arriving from the Atlantic. Often unsettled and windy, with outbreaks of rain. Wettest in the north and west. Briefer dry interludes. Driest conditions likely across south and southeastern areas. Winds lighter here, with risk of overnight fog at times.


Tuesday 2 Nov - Tuesday 16 Nov


The beginning of this period will likely remain unsettled with many systems arriving from the Atlantic. It will remain wet and windy with the wettest and windiest conditions in the north and west. Driest conditions across the south especially the southeast with lighter winds but the risk of overnight fog at times. From early to mid-November increasing chance of settled weather but confidence of this is very low. Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most. Perhaps some colder spells and an increasing chance of frost and fog towards the end of this period but confidence of this is very low.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Chichesterweatherfan2
18 October 2021 19:06:19

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Saturday 23 Oct - Monday 1 Nov


A dry start to the period Saturday staying mainly dry and bright in parts of the south and east through the day, outbreaks of rain possible across the northwest at first, spreading eastward. Turning windier again with a chance of coastal gales in the west. Through the first half of the period it will settled, especially in the west. Initially cold, with chance of overnight rural frost, and showers wintry over highest ground. Temperatures trending upwards through the period. The rest of October will be dominated by weather arriving from the Atlantic. Often unsettled....


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 



The met office need to employ a decent proof reader....

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
18 October 2021 20:40:48

Originally Posted by: Chichesterweatherfan2 


 


The met office need to employ a decent proof reader....



That whole first paragraph is very poorly constructed and is very unclear. It's all over the place, like a badly written Wikipedia page. 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Chichesterweatherfan2
18 October 2021 21:04:31

Originally Posted by: GezM 


 


That whole first paragraph is very poorly constructed and is very unclear. It's all over the place, like a badly written Wikipedia page. 



indeed...it is pretty poor effort to put it mildly...

Gavin D
19 October 2021 19:49:03

Sunday 24 Oct - Tuesday 2 Nov


A wet start to the period on Sunday with showers, sometimes heavy in the west and risk of thunderstorms in the northwest. Turning windier again with a chance of coastal gales in the west and northwest. Becoming more settled early in the week, especially in the west. Initially cold, with chance of overnight rural frost, and showers wintry over highest ground. Temperatures trending upwards through the period. The rest of October will be dominated by weather arriving from the Atlantic. Often unsettled and windy, with outbreaks of rain. Wettest in the north and west. Briefer dry interludes. Driest conditions likely across south and southeastern areas. Winds lighter here, with risk of overnight fog at times.


Wednesday 3 Nov - Wednesday 17 Nov


The beginning of this period will likely remain unsettled with many systems arriving from the Atlantic. It will remain wet and windy with the wettest and windiest conditions in the north and west. Driest conditions across the south especially the southeast with lighter winds but the risk of overnight fog at times. From early to mid-November increasing chance of settled weather but confidence of this is very low. Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most. Perhaps some colder spells and an increasing chance of frost and fog towards the end of this period but confidence of this is very low.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
20 October 2021 20:07:01
Amber warning for very heavy rain overnight for a large swathe of southern England and the London area ...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-10-21 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
eddied
20 October 2021 21:04:57

Originally Posted by: GezM 

Amber warning for very heavy rain overnight for a large swathe of southern England and the London area ...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-10-21


Pretty committed rain out there this evening. Some lightning in the mix too. I can see this causing problems if it goes all night!


Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st
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