Copied from yesterday - not much change; SE Britain a little drier in week 2 and the Alps/E Med a little warmer

wx summary temps still mild for a band stretching from the UK across Europe to the Black Sea; the Med still warm though not quite as warm as might be expected and serious cold weather beginning to show over Scandi and in week 2 the far NE of Europe. Atlantic rain aplenty for the UK shared with Scandi week 1 and then with France and the Alps week 2 

 Jet showing a mobile loop dipping S to enclose UK this week; a brief lull around Sun 24th; resuming from the W Tue 26th with some powerful streaks, at first mainly northern Britain but shifting S-wards to be across Biscay Tue 2nd

GFS dominated by Atlantic LP though some intervals of HP (best is Thu 28th) between as the LPs move on E-wards; at first standing off with warm S-lies but Thu 21st 990mb NI, Mon 25th 1000 mb Cornwall, Sat 30th 980mb Hebrides the last not going away and ending up 975 mb Eire Tue 2nd

GEFS temps swinging between 5C above norm and similar below; up Wed 20th, down Sat 23rd and less certainly up Fri 29th and down Tue 2nd. No real breaks in rain (the ridges of HP mentioned under GFS don't show up clearly exc maybe 23rd)

ECM pattern similar to GFS but Thu 21st LP is further S 990mb S Wales, Mon 25th is less of a feature , and the HP Thu 28th is stronger (does not match jetstream forecast)

Something for both optimists and pessimsts

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Looking like there is going to be a further build up of Scandinavian snow cover over the next couple of weeks, which in theory should increase the chances of a cold Winter in the UK.

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First widespread frost of the season on Fri/Sat?

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Looking like there is going to be a further build up of Scandinavian snow cover over the next couple of weeks, which in theory should increase the chances of a cold Winter in the UK.

 

Really ? I don't think it has any effect at all. What theory is this ?

 

 

Really ? I don't think it has any effect at all. What theory is this ?

Check out GavsWeatherVids if you are interested in learning more. I think the theory is it helps promote a stronger Scandinavian high in the winter, but like all these things it's not a direct link just one of a number of factors.

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Looking like there is going to be a further build up of Scandinavian snow cover over the next couple of weeks, which in theory should increase the chances of a cold Winter in the UK.

To be honest the snow cover is late and every year there is a build up of snow cover. Not a good theory many more factors

I see 🙄 the season of rumours and straw clutching is now upon us…

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To be honest the snow cover is late and every year there is a build up of snow cover. Not a good theory many more factors

It isn't late, like I said if you did your research into these things you would see that it is actually a little ahead of schedule so far. But yes it's just one of many factors but 2009 and 2010 also had an early build up of Scandinavian snow cover.

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I see 🙄 the season of rumours and straw clutching is now upon us…

No it isn't though, a few people just commenting on the model output and factors that could affect the Winter, hardly pulling up rumours and straw clutching.

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It isn't late, like I said if you did your research into these things you would see that it is actually a little ahead of schedule so far. But yes it's just one of many factors but 2009 and 2010 also had an early build up of Scandinavian snow cover.

There really isn’t any clear linkage between the arrival of Scandinavian snow cover and our winter weather. It’s at best one tiny part of a complex jigsaw puzzle, and more likely a red herring.

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Briefly, under pressure this morning:

Summary charts show seasonal temps for Europe except colder than average in Scandi. Uk on the edge of milder Atlantic, colder stuff moving into Russia but nothing exceptional. Rain plentiful in NW Europe week 1 (snow for Norway?) retreating slowly back NW to Atlantic week 2

GFS - current large LP on Atlantic giving mild S-lies, then slowly moving E to cover UK Wed 20th/ Thu 21st and winds switching N-ly. Then LPs mostly running N of UK and zonal flow; a promising ridge of HP Sat 30th/Sun 31st before an LP dips S-wards 970mb N Sea Wed 3rd

GEFS - current mild wet spell (high totals in S) ends with cool and dry Fri 22nd/Sat 23rd - rain begins again a couple of days later, mean temps near norm with a suggestion of mild spell Vri 29th and cooler after

ECM - similar to GFS but somewhat less zonal around Thu 28th, more of a NW-ly than a W-ly

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There really isn’t any clear linkage between the arrival of Scandinavian snow cover and our winter weather. It’s at best one tiny part of a complex jigsaw puzzle, and more likely a red herring.

That is likely correct, but it is one of the natural variables that people that do long range winter forecasts will look at along with ENSO, SSTs, QBO and solar activity. 

TBH I'm quite skeptical on the merits of any seasonal forecasts, but was just pointing out that if you did believe Scandinavian snow cover in October increased the chances of a cold winter in the UK, then the next few weeks look quite good for that.

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Wx summary showing seasonal temps across most of Europe i.e. mild Atlantic, colder weather establishing over NE Europe though the small corner of Siberia shown is still V warm. Rain for all UK week 1 spreading on into Germany & Poland, drier in S of UK week 2, 

Jet - loop dipping S around UK to the weekend, a brief lull, resuming close to or over N of UK Tue 26th to Tue 2nd (previous charts have shown it further S) then quiet again for the final 2 days

GFS - current LP crossing Shetland to Scandi, bringing in N-lies briefly Thu 21st, then W-lies with HP coming to dominate the S 1025mb Thu 28th, declining and allowing a secondary spin-off from the LP (which has stayed stuck over Scandi) to approach from the NE to be 990mb Irish Sea Mon 1st soon displaced by larger LP sitting out in the Atlantic with S-lies

GEFS - rain esp in S for a couple of days and a dip in temp Thu soon recovering to norm with a dry spell until Tue 26th after which mean temp near norm but a lot of variation in both temp and whether there will be rain or not in the S (so the HP mentioned above is not nailed on, see ECM below, and indeed wasn't nearly as dominant in yesterday's chart). Fairly frequent rain in the N does however appear in most runs.

ECM - takes a view that pressure will be generally lower, first with broad trough extending S from Iceland Mon 25th, then the W-ly spell is sandwiched between deeper LP further S (over Fair Isle) and HP over France (not UK) and much stronger W-ly winds

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Look at the number of months above CET compared to below it. 

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IIRC throughout the noughties, we had way more months with above average CETs than those with below average CETs as well.

I recall that when I first joined this forum in 2006, I was wondering if we would ever see a sustained spell of severe winter cold again in this country. I didn't have to wait that long to find out the answer to that!

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IIRC throughout the noughties, we had way more months with above average CETs than those with below average CETs as well.

I recall that when I first joined this forum in 2006, I was wondering if we would ever see a sustained spell of severe winter cold again in this country. I didn't have to wait that long to find out the answer to that!

Agreed and of course blocked synoptics which bring fine summer weather can easily bring a cold snap in the winter. Nonetheless, IMHO recent climatology should not be ignored when assessing the long range prospects. 

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Looking like there is going to be a further build up of Scandinavian snow cover over the next couple of weeks, which in theory should increase the chances of a cold Winter in the UK.

How on earth does what is on the ground affect atmospheric pressure????

 

How on earth does what is on the ground affect atmospheric pressure????

I'm not entirely sure on the exact mechanism it isn't my theory of course. If you check out GavsWeatherVids he covers Siberian/Scandinavian snow cover in his weekly winter forecast updates.

TBH I'm surprised people are completely unaware of it in what is meant to be a weather forum!!!!

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 After a brief colder interlude,  it looks like another warm up to end October. 

 

 

 

 

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I'm not entirely sure on the exact mechanism it isn't my theory of course. If you check out GavsWeatherVids he covers Siberian/Scandinavian snow cover in his weekly winter forecast updates.

TBH I'm surprised people are completely unaware of it in what is meant to be a weather forum!!!!

There is definitely a theory based on snow cover correlating with high pressure. Although my understanding of it is poor, I thought it was more prevalent in deep winter months when large anticyclones are more likely over NE/ Northern Europe, as opposed to more mobile systems typically associated with Autumn. 

From memory it has something to do with sunlight reflected back into space (rather than being absorbed as solar energy into earth).

Bit of a jigsaw puzzle but I’ve read numerous iterations in this very forum over the years.