All eyes on the track of Sam over the next few days as it will greatly influence our weather next week. As DEW mentions, the closer to the UK it passes, the less likely that any of us will tap in to the warm dry air to its south. And there is a risk of wet and windy weather, especially in north western parts. However, the weather is trending drier in general a week from now.

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Fascinating GFS 12Z evolution which shows a high pressure reteogression from the late semi-reliable to early FI. This is EXACTLY the sort of pattern we would like to see in the winter if we are going to hit the jackpot. Gav Partridge often says there are little teasers in the Autumn that suggests the atmosphere is not behaving normally, and a retrogressing high pressure in October would be particularly abnormal.
It may, of course, mean absolutely nothing for the winter, but interesting to see in any case, as if a pattern repeats, who knows? Interesting early signs in my view.

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Met office 3 month contingency planners align with CFS 3-6 month ideas… with a cold cold December.
So you can bet all your cash on a green Christmas 🤣🤣🤣

Edit, not sure what you’re talking about Mooms, looks mobile to me.

Met office 3 month contingency planners align with CFS 3-6 month ideas… with a cold cold December.
So you can bet all your cash on a green Christmas 🤣🤣🤣

Edit, not sure what you’re talking about Mooms, looks mobile to me.

Does it? 

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Fascinating GFS 12Z evolution which shows a high pressure reteogression from the late semi-reliable to early FI. This is EXACTLY the sort of pattern we would like to see in the winter if we are going to hit the jackpot. Gav Partridge often says there are little teasers in the Autumn that suggests the atmosphere is not behaving normally, and a retrogressing high pressure in October would be particularly abnormal.
It may, of course, mean absolutely nothing for the winter, but interesting to see in any case, as if a pattern repeats, who knows? Interesting early signs in my view.

Gavin P also has a theory of teaser winters preeceeding a proper cold one and his theory seems to hold up,going back through the CET record. Classic example: winter 2008/09 followed by 2009/10. Last winter had all the hallmarks of a teaser winter as the trough of lp was just a few hundred miles too far north but scotland had a taste of what could have been and what might be this coming winter based on Gavs creditable theory.

But for this morning ...

Summary charts -still cool and wet blowing in from the Atlantic, the dry slot for the SE promised yesterday for week 2 has disappeared, Dome cold studd in NE europe re-appeared.

GFS - LP moving in from W and the filling as it moves N (affecting Shetland tomorrow) then contrary to above ridge of HP setting up from SW until Sun 10th while ex-Sam passes by to the NW bringing up some warmth from the S . This lasts until Sat 16th then new Lp comes across England, filling as it goes

GEFS - heavy rain to Tue 5th, then a dry week smaller amounts of rain resuming ca Thu 14th , cool at first, mean  a bit above norm (more than a bit in N) around 9th then generally close to norm

ECM - like GFS at first, produces more of a broad area of HP from Sun 10th centred over Scotland with E-lies for England

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Signs of retrogression again this time on ECM this morning, but of course we will need this to happen in December, it's not much use in early October, but would be interesting still to see it happen.

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For accuracy here is the Met Office CPF summary issued on 23/09/21:

The period is significantly more likely than normal to be mild

Despite this, cold spells are still possible, especially during November and December
The period is slightly more likely than normal to be wet

It can be read in full here:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ond-v2-secure.pdf

 

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For accuracy here is the Met Office CPF summary issued on 23/09/21:

The period is significantly more likely than normal to be mild

Despite this, cold spells are still possible, especially during November and December
The period is slightly more likely than normal to be wet

It can be read in full here:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ond-v2-secure.pdf

 

Winds more likely from the north or north west, lower chance of Atlantic weather types spells out the general picture for me.

Next update on 21st of this month. Watch this space.

 

Daily Express forecasting widespread snow in the next few weeks! Mind you according to the Express every winter is going to be a snow apocalypse which will make the winters of '47 and '63 look almost tropical in comparison.

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if only

After the absolute stinker of today weatherwise, I've just taken a peek at the outputs and am pleased to see a common theme of high pressure theme with a dry continental feed over the UK by this time next weekend. 

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It's so far looking like ex-Sam might do us a bit of a favour if mild and dry is what you like. The passage seems to want to bring up a ridge, which coupled with a warm air mass would feel very pleasant indeed. A few tweaks and we could even see a bit of an Indian summer situation developing by next weekend...

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Latest GEFS certainly look dry in the medium term

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Latest GEFS certainly look dry in the medium term

Yep, the output overall looks decent enough after the 5th. In the sunshine we should see 20c in the south again. 

 

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It's so far looking like ex-Sam might do us a bit of a favour if mild and dry is what you like. The passage seems to want to bring up a ridge, which coupled with a warm air mass would feel very pleasant indeed. A few tweaks and we could even see a bit of an Indian summer situation developing by next weekend...

As I mentioned last year, the late Paul Bartlett used to look for a warm, dry October and a cold, wet November as a sign of a cold winter to come. As such, a warm, dry spell in October would suit me just fine!

 

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No post from DEW today.  I wonder if he’s driving back from his holiday. 

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No post from DEW today.  I wonder if he’s driving back from his holiday. 

No, the Internet router where I'm staying had a hissy fit. It's back up now but a bit late for a review.

Driving back tomorrow, I'll try and fit in a post before we go.

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No, the Internet router where I'm staying had a hissy fit. It's back up now but a bit late for a review.

Driving back tomorrow, I'll try and fit in a post before we go.

  Have a good trip back!

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No, the Internet router where I'm staying had a hissy fit. It's back up now but a bit late for a review.

Driving back tomorrow, I'll try and fit in a post before we go.

 

Seriously, mate, don't worry about a model assessment tomorrow 

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