We do need to be cautious about assuming a 16C+ is nailed on for September. Even with this notable 18.2C to 11th, we still need 14.8 daily for the rest of the month to secure a 16. That is based on current HadCET reporting back, which of course is some way above what tends to happen. I do hope these regular, nay, constant downjustments are not just designed to cover up warming. Luckily GW is able to track closer to the truth as the month moves on.

We do need to be cautious about assuming a 16C+ is nailed on for September. Even with this notable 18.2C to 11th, we still need 14.8 daily for the rest of the month to secure a 16. That is based on current HadCET reporting back, which of course is some way above what tends to happen. I do hope these regular, nay, constant downjustments are not just designed to cover up warming. Luckily GW is able to track closer to the truth as the month moves on.

How do you mean 'you hope these regular, nay, constant downjustments are not just designed to cover up warming'? Are you suggesting they are fiddling the data?

As for the 16c+ I agree that it is by no means are guarantee and I suspect the current 18.2c could be running at least 0.5c above the actual so far, but will see what GW says.

We do need to be cautious about assuming a 16C+ is nailed on for September. Even with this notable 18.2C to 11th, we still need 14.8 daily for the rest of the month to secure a 16. That is based on current HadCET reporting back, which of course is some way above what tends to happen. I do hope these regular, nay, constant downjustments are not just designed to cover up warming. Luckily GW is able to track closer to the truth as the month moves on.

If I remember correctly there is a -0.2C adjustment made each month to allow for increasd urbanisation of the sites. Not a "cover up" but a way of getting consistency across the whole series going back into the Manley data from 1659

 

If I remember correctly there is a -0.2C adjustment made each month to allow for increasd urbanisation of the sites. Not a "cover up" but a way of getting consistency across the whole series going back into the Manley data from 1659

 

No- apologies to you and Taylor & anyone else- I should have posted a smiley; it was intended lightly. I certainly wasn't hijacking this brilliant thread with a climate agenda!

Soz.

Met Office Hadley       17.9c       Anomaly      3.5c provisional to 12th

Metcheck                    17.01c     Anomaly       3.28c

Netweather                 17.82c     Anomaly       4.13c

Peasedown St John     17.17c    Anomaly     2.89c.

Thanks ART! 

The decline has begun! Wonder where it will end up?

Thanks ART! 

The decline has begun! Wonder where it will end up?

A Sepetmber CET in excess of 17C would be amazing. A September CET in excess of 18C would be truly amazing.

But look at December 2015 - A CET in excess of 9.0C Now that was incredible.

So these days anything is possible.

 

A Sepetmber CET in excess of 17C would be amazing. A September CET in excess of 18C would be truly amazing.

But look at December 2015 - A CET in excess of 9.0C Now that was incredible.

So these days anything is possible.

 

The next couple of weeks seem to look pretty stable in terms of max & min temps, with almost all days looking like having a CET of between 13c and 15c. If the rest of the month averaged about 14c, we'd be looking at a final figure of 15.5c - 16c (depending on downward adjustments).

I'm pretty confident this will be the case - barring any crazily anomalous spell not currently showing

 

 

The next couple of weeks seem to look pretty stable in terms of max & min temps, with almost all days looking like having a CET of between 13c and 15c. If the rest of the month averaged about 14c, we'd be looking at a final figure of 15.5c - 16c (depending on downward adjustments).

I'm pretty confident this will be the case - barring any crazily anomalous spell not currently showing

This evening, the GFS Ens mean line is mostly > a degree above the black line, sometimes as high as +3 and only  reaching +0 on about two occasions.  This should give CETs at the higher end of your estimate.

I continue to be baffled by the black line- start and end of run just about the same, despite two weeks of autumnal onset. 

Met Office Hadley       17.7c     Anomaly      3.4c provisional to 13th

Metcheck                    16.89c   Anomaly      3.17c

Netweather                 17.67c   Anomaly      3.98c

Peasedown St John    17.92c   Anomaly     2.74c.  

 

The next couple of weeks seem to look pretty stable in terms of max & min temps, with almost all days looking like having a CET of between 13c and 15c. If the rest of the month averaged about 14c, we'd be looking at a final figure of 15.5c - 16c (depending on downward adjustments).

I'm pretty confident this will be the case - barring any crazily anomalous spell not currently showing

Met Office Hadley        17.6c       Anomaly       3.3c provisional to 14th

Metcheck                     16.73c     Anomaly       3.01c

Netweather                  17.52c     Anomaly        2.83c

Peasedown St John     17.0c      Anomaly       2.72c.

Met Office Hadley        17.6c       Anomaly       3.3c provisional to 14th

Metcheck                     16.73c     Anomaly       3.01c

Netweather                  17.52c     Anomaly        2.83c

Peasedown St John     17.0c      Anomaly       2.72c.

Still very impressive and we're half way through the month.

Met Office Hadley       17.4c      Anomaly       3.2c provisional to 15th

Metcheck                    16.61c    Anomaly        2.89c

Netweather                17.41c     Anomaly        3.72c

Peasedown St John    16.92c    Anomaly       2.54c.  

Met Office Hadley      17.4c       Anomaly     3.2c provisional to 16th

Metcheck                   16.54c     Anomaly     2.82c

Netweather                17.33c     Anomaly     3.64c

Peasedown St John   16.71c     Anomaly    2.43c. 

Met Office Hadley        17.3c      Anomaly     3.2c provisional to 17th

Metcheck                     16.48c    Anomaly     2.76c

Netweather                  17.27c    Anomaly     3.58c

Peasedown St John     16.6c     Anomaly     2.39c.

Met Office Hadley      17.3c      Anomaly      3.2c provisional to 18th

Metcheck                   16.51c    Anomaly      2.79c

Netweather                17.3c      Anomaly     3.61c

Peasdeown St John   16.7c       Anomaly     2.42c.           

Good afternoon. I have been away on holiday for the past week so not had a chance to post any updates for a while.

Latest CET estimate for September is 15.77C. So a steady fall off for the rest of the month as would be expected. Temperatures should stay slightly above average until the final three days of the month, mainly due to mild nights. Final September CET could be very similar to August.

Despite the fall off in the CET in the second half of the month this could still be the 7th warmest September on record. The CET has reached 16C or more on 6 occasions in September. We have never had a 15.8C or 15.9C September.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Met Office Hadley      17.2c      Anomaly       3.2c provisional to 19th

Metcheck                   16.37c    Anomaly       2.65c

Netweather                17.2c     Anomaly        3.51c

Peasedown St John   16.7c     Anomaly       2.4c.