Thursday 16 Sep - Saturday 25 Sep

Likely largely dry in the south on Thursday, with the risk of a few showers. However, outbreaks of rain, potentially heavy, with stronger winds arriving across the northwest and spreading south-eastwards, bringing a spell of rain to many areas of the UK on Friday. Through the weekend and beyond, there is a signal for mostly fine and dry weather across southern and eastern areas, with variable amounts of cloud and sunny spells, but with the risk of overnight fog patches. Towards the northwest, perhaps cloudier with the chance of rain at times, which may gradually spread south-eastwards to other areas. Overall, temperatures are likely to be near to above average for the time of the year, but with the chance of some cool nights particularly in the north.

Saturday 25 Sep - Saturday 9 Oct

Confidence is typically low. The most likely scenario is that conditions remain more unsettled overall from mid-to late September, beyond which a trend to more settled conditions is probable, especially across the south. Within the unsettled period there is a very low risk of very disturbed, perhaps stormy conditions. Rainfall expected to be above average, although may trend to near or drier than average late into September and into early October. Temperatures likely to remain above average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Friday 17 Sep - Sunday 26 Sep

Fine and dry to start across central and eastern areas on Friday. Outbreaks of rain, heavy in places, and strong winds across the northwest at first will gradually spread southeastwards through the day. Through the weekend and beyond, there is a signal for mostly fine and dry weather across southern and eastern areas, with variable amounts of cloud and sunny spells, but with the risk of overnight fog patches. Towards the northwest, perhaps cloudier with the chance of rain at times, which may spread south-eastwards to other areas. There is also the possibility that these unsettled conditions may become more widespread across the UK. Overall, temperatures are likely to be near to above average, but with the chance of some cool nights particularly in the north.

Monday 27 Sep - Monday 11 Oct

Confidence is fairly low through this period. However, the current signals suggest low pressure will lie to the northwest of the UK. This may bring unsettled conditions to northwestern areas, with a low risk of stormy conditions at times. In the southeast more settled weather is likely. Towards the end of October, a trend towards more widely settled conditions is possible. Overall, rainfall is expected to be above average with temperatures warmer than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 18 Sep - Monday 27 Sep

Through the weekend and Monday there is a signal for mostly fine and dry weather across southern and eastern areas with variable amounts of cloud and some decent sunny spells, although overnight there is a risk of fog patches. Towards the northwest, it looks to be cloudier with the chance of rain at times, at times this may spread south-eastwards into other areas. Then into next week confidence becomes lower, however it is expected that conditions will remain split with low pressure affecting the northwest and more settled conditions being found in the southeast. Overall, temperatures are likely to be near to above average, but with the chance of some cool nights particularly in the north.

Tuesday 28 Sep - Tuesday 12 Oct

Confidence is fairly low through this period. However, the current signals suggest low pressure will lie to the northwest of the UK. This may bring unsettled conditions to northwestern areas, with a low risk of stormy conditions at times. In the southeast more settled weather is likely. Towards the mid October, a trend towards more widely settled conditions is possible. Overall, rainfall is expected to be above average with temperatures warmer than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled, slightly warm start to October

____________________

Wednesday 15 September to – Sunday 19 September

Briefly dry with greater rain chances later

For the rest of the working week, the weather pattern will continue to shift away from high pressure towards more influential low pressure. A weak low will move away and allow for a mostly dry middle of the week before a cold front arrives and bring some rain to western areas. Over the weekend, this cold front is expected to slow down and weaken, eventually bringing some rain into the southeast. Meanwhile, another weak weather front will push in from the west and bring some rain to northern areas. Temperatures will likely stay just on the positive side of average.

Monday 20 September to – Sunday 26 September

Weather fronts with nearby high pressure

For the final full week of September, we expect high pressure to build in East or Northeast Europe with another high pressure system lingering in the sub-tropical Atlantic to our southwest. This will open the door for low pressure near Iceland, the aptly named "Icelandic Low", to displace nearer to the UK. An unsettled and rather changeable pattern is set to continue throughout the week, with weather fronts bringing spells of rain and cooler days while occasional ridges of high pressure mix things up with some dry, sunny breaks.

Temperatures will tend to fluctuate day-to-day but hover just above average. This is because low pressure systems will slow down as they approach Europe, thanks to high pressure to the east. As they slow, warmer southwest winds will feed some sub-tropical Atlantic air into the UK. Cooler spells will happen behind cold fronts as the North Atlantic air moves in from the northwest. Southern and eastern areas will tend to be a little drier overall, while western and northern areas see more frequent rainy days. The risk scenario is for a strong high pressure system to build overhead, either extending into the UK from the east, which is less likely, or building in from the southwest, which is a bit more likely. This would be a dry, largely sunny, and warm pattern as southerly winds bring air in from Spain and France.

Monday 27 September to – Sunday 10 October

Most likely staying unsettled with frequent rain

As we head into the first part of October, the forecast gets a little tricky. The main uncertainty is on the location of high pressure in northern Europe, and we are getting a lot of conflicting signals from our forecasting tools. We think the unsettled weather will continue through the middle of October and potentially even longer, with more frequent weather fronts and a wetter, windier outlook.

For early October, currently the most likely outlook seems to be that this low pressure dominated pattern persists for a few more weeks, as high pressure is favoured in eastern parts of Europe or Scandinavia. At the same time, high pressure will tend to linger and maintain strength in the Central Atlantic. This pattern helps strengthen the jet stream, which is a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems. A stronger jet stream means Atlantic fronts will continue to move in and give us plenty of wet weather with some day-to-day changeability.

Central Atlantic high pressure may occasionally build in overhead, bringing some drier, warmer spells to break things up. These could become more frequent later in October, and it's difficult to say which signals may win out at the moment. Our alternate scenario, which has a roughly 35% chance of occurring, is for a larger scale high pressure system to develop over northern Europe, including the UK. This is a consistently drier and likely warmer pattern, with those southerly winds again bringing in Spanish and French air. Our computer models are favouring this currently, but they are likely over-estimating high pressure building into the North Atlantic. While the rainfall pattern is starkly different, temperatures are more likely to be mostly above average, with no strong signals for prolonged cold in either scenario.

Further ahead

Unsettled weather is still looking likely for early October, but we will look a little deeper into October to see how long it may stick around.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Monday 20 Sep - Wednesday 29 Sep

Starting warm for many next week. A fair amount of cloud on Monday, with some outbreaks of rain mixed with brighter interludes. Driest across the far northwest and Northern Ireland, with the south rather cloudy and damp. High pressure builds from the south Tuesday onwards, giving largely fine conditions, although with a risk of an isolated shower. Into the remainder of September, a northwest to southeast split develops: the northwest will see the most of any unsettled conditions and outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy at times, with strong winds and coastal gales. The southeast seeing drier and sunnier weather, though unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread here at times. Temperatures above average to start the period, but near normal later with some chilly, and misty, nights possible.

Thursday 30 Sep - Thursday 14 Oct

Current signals, although quite weak, suggest low pressure will lie to the northwest of the UK during this period. This may bring unsettled conditions to northwestern areas, with a low risk of stormy conditions at times and in the southeast more settled weather is likely. However, unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread into the southeast at times. Temperatures are expected to be above average throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Tuesday 21 Sep - Thursday 30 Sep

Tuesday will remain quite cloudy with some patchy outbreaks of light rain or drizzle and with the best of any sunny spells in central locations. By mid-week a northwest to southeast split is likely to develop, and set the trend for the rest of September: the northwest will see the most of any unsettled conditions and outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy at times, with strong winds and coastal gales. The southeast seeing drier and sunnier weather, though unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread here at times. Temperatures generally near or above average, and likely to remain so for this period, still with some chilly and misty nights possibly, especially rural northern and western areas.

Friday 1 Oct - Friday 15 Oct

Current signals, although quite weak, suggest low pressure will lie to the northwest of the UK during this period. This may bring unsettled conditions to northwestern areas, with a low risk of stormy conditions at times and in the southeast more settled weather is likely. However, unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread into the southeast at times. Temperatures are expected to be above average throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Wednesday 22 Sep - Friday 1 Oct

A band of cloud and rain, heavy at times, looks likely to cross the UK on Wednesday, with sunny spells and showers either side of this. Thursday and Friday look to be unsettled and much of the country will see showers or longer spells of rain. Coastal gales likely in the northwest. From the weekend onwards, a northwest to southeast split to our weather is likely to develop. The northwest is expected to see the most unsettled conditions: outbreaks of rain, which could be heavy at times, and strong winds, possibly coastal gales. Drier and sunnier weather looks more likely across the southeast, though unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread here at times. Temperatures generally near or slightly above average, with some chilly and misty nights possible.

Saturday 2 Oct - Saturday 16 Oct

Current signals, although quite weak, suggest that higher pressure is expected over the southeast during this period, giving generally settled conditions here and to eastern parts. Conversely, low pressure will tend to lie to the northwest of the UK, bringing more in the way of rain and stronger winds to northern and western areas. This more unsettled weather could occasionally spread further towards the southeast. Temperatures are more likely to be above average through this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled, wet, and changeable for October

____________________

Saturday 18 September to – Sunday 26 September

Unsettled and gradually turning cooler

The start of the week should see some drier and sunnier skies for a time. High pressure will be shifting south across northern Europe and weakening, and by midweek a cold front will begin to push in from the northwest. This first front is likely to bring some rain to the northern half of the country, but by the end of the week and weekend, wet weather is expected widely. Temperatures at the start of the week will be slightly above average and gradually moderate, becoming slightly below average by the weekend.

Monday 27 September to – Sunday 3 October

Low pressure in charge keeping things unsettled

The large-scale weather pattern that develops over Europe next week is likely to stick around for some time, persisting into the middle of October at least. This should see high pressure systems in West Russia and the North Atlantic or Greenland, with low pressure between them near the UK and North Europe. With low pressure nearby or overhead, unsettled weather is likely to be the norm with frequent rain and often breezy days.

Temperatures are a little more tricky to pin down at the moment, and will be sensitive to the exact position of the low pressure system. If the low is east of the UK, northerly winds will make things feel cooler than normal, bringing some crisp autumn days. However, if the low is west or north of the UK, warmer air will feed in from the southwest. Temperatures are likely to shift around day-to-day as the low pressure system nearby moves around.

We may see high pressure build stronger to the west of Europe, extending north toward Iceland, forming a large block for incoming weather systems. If this happens, low pressure will tend to be pushed into Scandinavia, with a consistent northerly wind for the UK. This becomes a colder outlook with temperatures consistently below average with rain less frequent. This scenario, has perhaps a 30% chance of occurring.

Monday 4 October to – Sunday 17 October

Staying unsettled and changeable

Throughout the first half of October, we are seeing some encouraging signals that the large-scale pattern from late-September will continue without significant change. High pressure is likely to be a consistent feature in West Russia, which will be the main driving force for our weather. This high will tend to keep low pressure nearby or overhead and maintain the unsettled weather for the UK and North Europe. Temperatures will be around average but changeable.

Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to loiter to the southwest, occasionally building stronger and sending a brief ridge overhead between fronts. This high will control how many weather fronts we see streaming across the North Atlantic, and the weaker the high is the more weather fronts we will see. Later in mid-October, we may see this high pressure system consistently amplified to the north, increasing the chance of temperatures falling below average and reducing the number of weather fronts passing by.

Our risk scenario for the first half of October is that a strong high pressure builds overhead, pushing low pressure toward Iceland or Norway. This is a drier, warmer, and sunnier outlook which will become more likely if we see a strong Atlantic hurricane push too far north. This becomes less likely as we head further into autumn, but it will remain a risk worth keeping an eye on. There is roughly a 35% chance of this pattern developing.

Further ahead

With low pressure set to be in charge for much of October, we will take a closer look at the chance of some colder weather setting in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Thursday 23 Sep - Saturday 2 Oct

Thursday and Friday look to be widely unsettled, with much of the UK receiving showers or longer spells of rain, as well as windy conditions. Northwestern areas will likely see the heaviest rain and coastal gales. From the weekend onwards, a very general northwest to southeast split to our weather is likely to develop. The northwest is expected to see the most of any unsettled conditions: outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy at times, and strong winds, possibly coastal gales. Drier and sunnier weather looks more likely across the southeast, though unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread here at times. Temperatures generally near or slightly below average, but may slightly rise towards the end of this period.

Sunday 3 Oct - Sunday 17 Oct

Current signals, although quite weak, suggest that higher pressure is expected over the southeast during this period, giving generally settled conditions here and to eastern parts. Conversely, low pressure will tend to lie to the northwest of the UK, bringing more in the way of rain and stronger winds to northern and western areas, with a low risk of stormy conditions. This more unsettled weather could occasionally spread further towards the southeast. Temperatures are more likely to be above average through this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Daily Express

Monday 27 Sep - Wednesday 6 Oct

A band of blustery, sometimes intense, showers pass over much of the UK through Monday, bringing a noticeable drop in temperatures for the oncoming week as it passes. As such, eastern areas are likely to start off warm and fine once patchy mist clears on Monday ahead of this. Breezy winds with the risk of gales for Northern Isles. A cyclonic pattern will likely develop from Tuesday and last into October, bringing largely unsettled condition across the UK with a very general northwest to southeast split: Showers and long spells of rain towards northern areas with the southeast perhaps seeing drier and sunnier weather. However, unsettled weather could still spread south with outbreaks of rain. Temperatures near average but may rise slightly towards the end of this period.

Thursday 7 Oct - Thursday 21 Oct

Confidence is typically low through this period. Current signals suggest the higher pressure is more likely over the south during this period, giving generally dry and settle conditions. More settled conditions may spread northwards at times. Lower pressure in the north will bring periods of showers or longer spells along with stronger winds. Temperatures most likely around or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Thursday 30 Sep - Saturday 9 Oct

A low pressure system will cross the country at the start of this period, bringing heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms for all. Thereafter, further low pressure systems will affect the UK, particularly northwestern areas. This will bring organised bands of rain, heavy at times, interspersed with cooler and showery periods but some sunny spells too. Drier and more settled conditions are likely across southern and eastern parts of the country, but there is still a chance that bands of rain and strong winds from the north and west could extend into these areas. The temperatures are most likely to be slightly below average for this time of the year during the start of the period, but will gradually return to near average later.

Sunday 10 Oct - Sunday 24 Oct

Confidence is typically low during this period, but the most likely outcome is for high pressure to dominate in the south, leading to drier and more settled conditions over these areas. In the north, lower pressure is likely to prevail, with these areas seeing the wettest weather. However, there is a chance of settled conditions becoming more prevalent across most of the UK for a time. Temperatures are more likely to be around or slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Friday 1 Oct - Sunday 10 Oct

A low pressure system to the north of the UK will dominate during the start of this period, bringing heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms for all. Thereafter, further low pressure systems will affect the UK, particularly northwestern areas. This will bring organised bands of rain, heavy at times, interspersed with cooler and showery periods but some sunny spells too. Drier and more settled conditions are likely across southern and eastern parts of the country, but there is still a chance that bands of rain and strong winds from the north and west could extend into these areas. The temperatures are most likely to be slightly below average for this time of the year during the start of the period, but will gradually return to near average later.

Monday 11 Oct - Monday 25 Oct

Confidence is typically low during this period, but the most likely outcome is for high pressure to dominate in the south, leading to drier and more settled conditions over these areas. In the north, lower pressure is likely to prevail, with these areas seeing the wettest weather. However, there is a chance of settled conditions becoming more prevalent across most of the UK for a time. Temperatures are more likely to be around or slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

The silly season of speculation has started:-

Evening Standard then worse: - 

Meteorological expert Dave King delivered “bad news” about the icy weather freezing the UK.

He said on This Morning: “It is gonna be bitterly cold and very frosty."

Is that the world famous meteorologist Dave King ! Google it and he's not as bad as some, mainly because he does admit he has no academic or scientific qualifications. But this is still part of populist Britain where "This Morning" have ready access to the world's leading meteorologist but choose to go on the word of a non qualified bloke with a weather station in his back garden. They might as well have got one of us on here!

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/uk-weather-forecast-met-office-170321344.html

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Is anyone having issues loading the rainfall radar images from the Met Office?

Is anyone having issues loading the rainfall radar images from the Met Office?

Seems I'm the only one out of 8 billion people on this planet who is having issues. 

I'm ultra amazingly unique! 

Friday 8 Oct - Sunday 17 Oct

Later into next week, cloudy conditions are expected with occasional rain that is at times prolonged and heavy across western Scotland and Northern Ireland accompanied by strong winds across northwestern coasts. Elsewhere, dry with variable cloud and some clear and sunny spells, with the most sun in southern and southeastern areas. In addition, light winds will allow for some patchy fog to develop overnight which may locally be slow to clear. Temperatures are expected to be above average through this period. Into the following week, this northwest-southeast regime is likely to persist, with any spells of rain and potentially strong winds to the northwest. Drier and more settled elsewhere, however, there is a likelihood of some slight showers affecting areas further southeast with temperatures also returning to nearer average.

Monday 18 Oct - Monday 1 Nov

Confidence in this period is low. Turning more widely unsettled across the UK, with wettest and windiest conditions remaining to the north and the northwest and more settled conditions to southern and eastern areas. Wider dry spells are possible across the country, with early morning frost and fog becoming more increasingly prevalent. Through this period temperatures will remain near or above average. There is a chance of a colder settled period becoming established by early November.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 9 Oct - Monday 18 Oct

A band of cloud and increasingly patchy rain will push southeast through the weekend. Ahead of this, areas of mist and fog will likely be slow to clear, whilst clearer weather follows into parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Dry conditions are likely to then dominate for much of the UK for the rest of the period, with only occasional spells of rain likely in the north and west at times. Fog will continue to be a feature of the weather with light winds. Temperatures are likely to remain somewhat above normal for the time of year, but with chilly nights at times too. A change to more unsettled conditions may get underway by the end of the period.

Tuesday 19 Oct - Tuesday 2 Nov

Confidence in this period is low. Turning more widely unsettled across the UK, with wettest and windiest conditions remaining to the north and the northwest and more settled conditions to southern and eastern areas. Wider dry spells are possible across the country, with early morning frost and fog becoming more increasingly prevalent. Through this period temperatures will remain near or above average. There is a chance of a colder settled period becoming established by early November.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Met Office weather warning for rain today doesn't appear to be covering the most appropriate part of the country to my amateur eye..?? maybe the intensity will be maintained when it drifts back over the pennines but over the last few hours it's been this side of the country that's been copping it and continues to cop it.

Its mad to see how high the rivers have become after how low they were as recently as Friday.

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Sunday 10 Oct - Tuesday 19 Oct

A band of cloud and increasingly patchy rain will push southeast through the weekend. Ahead of this, areas of mist and fog will likely be slow to clear, whilst clearer weather follows into parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Dry conditions are likely to then dominate for much of the UK for the rest of the period, with only occasional spells of rain likely in the north and west at times. Fog will continue to be a feature of the weather with light winds. Temperatures are likely to remain somewhat above normal for the time of year, but with chilly nights at times too. A change to more unsettled conditions may get underway by the end of the period.

Tuesday 19 Oct - Tuesday 2 Nov

Confidence in this period is low. Turning more widely unsettled across the UK, with wettest and windiest conditions remaining to the north and the northwest and more settled conditions to southern and eastern areas. Wider dry spells are possible across the country, with early morning frost and fog becoming more increasingly prevalent. Through this period temperatures will remain near or above average. There is a chance of a colder settled period becoming established by early November.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/