Thursday 29 Jul - Saturday 7 Aug

Remaining unsettled through much of this period, with most places seeing showers or rain at times. Heavy and persistent rain is likely across northern Scotland on Thursday and the rest of the UK could well see showers develop though the day, some heavy and possibly thundery at times. Conditions remain changeable with outbreaks of rain moving in from the west, and further thundery showers possible between any drier interludes. Stronger that average winds are expected for the time of year. From the end of next week until early August, we will likely see mixed conditions with sunny spells and heavy showers, perhaps with some more prolonged rain at times. Southwestern areas possibly staying driest whereas the northeast could be wetter than usual. Average temperatures are expected.

Sunday 8 Aug - Sunday 22 Aug

Changeable conditions look likely to continue through the start of this period, with sunny spells mixed in with some showers at times or longer spells of rain, these more prevalent in the northwest. Although confidence in the detail is low, there are tentative signals suggesting that high pressure may become more dominant during the middle of August, bringing more settled, drier and warmer conditions for many. There would still be a risk of showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures are most likely to be above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

The weather warnings for today seem to have been very over the top. Our local Saturday market decided yesterday to cancel because of the weather forecast but in fact it has been totally dry apart from a brief spell of rain around 6-7am and then an hour or so of drizzle around midday.

This evening we were able to have a barbecue outside in warm sunshine.

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As with our record breaking deluge during the week I don't think they emphasised the extent to which downpours would be localised as they often do. Effectively all of yesterday's came as a "streamer" around the outer radius of the LP. Those in  the middle and outside of it got nothing.

 

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Probably one of the most stupid weather related headlines I've ever read, saying that Japan lied about their weather to get the Olympics!

https://uk.yahoo.com/sports/news/japan-lied-about-the-weather-and-now-olympians-are-paying-the-price-010612634.html

Like the weather and climate of a Country is shrouded in secrecy and nobody could possibly have found out it can get very hot there in summer!

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Probably one of the most stupid weather related headlines I've ever read, saying that Japan lied about their weather to get the Olympics!

https://uk.yahoo.com/sports/news/japan-lied-about-the-weather-and-now-olympians-are-paying-the-price-010612634.html

Like the weather and climate of a Country is shrouded in secrecy and nobody could possibly have found out it can get very hot there in summer!

Also pointless when you realise that Qatar has the World Cup

The BBC’s latest, issued last Friday, doesn’t make for pleasant reading:

Turning unsettled and cooler for much of August.

After a week-long heat wave in the UK, temperatures are set to moderate as low pressure moves in this weekend. This area of lower pressure will become trapped over the UK and linger here for several weeks, keeping things unsettled, changeable, and a bit cooler than normal for August. After the middle of the month, there is a growing chance of higher pressure developing nearby or overhead, bringing sunnier and warmer weather along with a slight risk of another heat wave. However, we expect low pressure to be the main weather driver until mid-August, and potentially for the entire month.

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I wonder where Lameteo get their data from? What model is this long range forecast based on?

Snow for Belfast in December if this comes about haha! :D

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I wonder where Lameteo get their data from? What model is this long range forecast based on?

Snow for Belfast in December if this comes about haha! :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQMmOfKSSuE

 

I'm sure that LaMeteo are using the latest ultra high tech weather modelling techniques so I'd say that their December forecast is pretty much guaranteed.
Perhaps more to the point, why are you worried about December snow when we are still in July? 

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Sunday 1 Aug - Tuesday 10 Aug
Changeable conditions continuing to dominate for the start of August, with a mixture of sunny and dry periods, showery periods and the chance of longer spells of rain. At first the south is likely to see the most showers, with the north remaining the driest, but by the end of the period the south and southeast will possibly be the driest and the west and northwest the wettest. There remains a chance for any showers or rain to produce thunderstorms. Temperatures are most likely cooler than average for this time of year, trending to slightly cooler than average or average through the period, with the south and southwest having the best chance of seeing average temperatures.

Wednesday 11 Aug - Wednesday 25 Aug
As is typical for this time of year, confidence is low for this period. However, there is a tentative sign of more settled conditions developing with higher pressure becoming slightly more likely. This means drier conditions may become more prevalent, although there is still the risk of showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures likely to trend to above average, with an increasing chance of hotter spells developing as the month progresses.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 2 Aug - Wednesday 11 Aug
Changeable conditions continuing to dominate for the start of August, with a mixture of sunny and dry periods, showery periods and the chance of longer spells of rain. At first the south is likely to see the most showers, with the north remaining the driest, but by the end of the period the south and southeast will possibly be the driest and the west and northwest the wettest. There remains a chance for any showers or rain to produce thunderstorms. Temperatures are most likely cooler than average for this time of year, trending to slightly cooler than average or average through the period, with the south and southwest having the best chance of seeing average temperatures.

Thursday 12 Aug - Thursday 26 Aug
As is typical for this time of year, confidence is low for this period. However, there is a tentative sign of more settled conditions developing with higher pressure becoming slightly more likely. This means drier conditions may become more prevalent, although there is still the risk of showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures likely to trend to above average, with an increasing chance of hotter spells developing as the month progresses.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled, cooler weather. Drier later in August.

_________________________________

Wednesday 28 July to – Sunday 1 August

A cooler week with frequent showers or thunder.

Low pressure is expected to be in charge across northern Europe for the rest of this week and beyond. As we head toward the weekend though, the central low pressure is expected to drift more over Nordic countries to our east. This will provide a cooler northerly flow over the UK and keep temperatures a little below average for late July. High pressure to the west will struggle to move overhead, so scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected most days across the country. There is a chance for some heavier rain in the Southeast near the end of the week.

Monday 2 August to – Sunday 8 August

Staying unsettled and changeable. Feeling cooler.

The large area of low pressure in place over northern Europe is expected to stick around through at least the first half of August as high pressure builds in the Atlantic and Central Russia. These two highs will tend to dominate the large-scale weather systems, meaning low pressure near us will become trapped over northern or north-eastern Europe. What this means for the UK is that we can expect a lot of cooler, wetter, and at times windier weather than what we typically see in the late summertime. The day-to-day weather will also be more changeable, with perhaps some dry, sunny breaks here and there.

There doesn't look to be any large changes in the weather pattern across the North Atlantic and Europe at least for the next few weeks, so we have high confidence that we will continue to see some cooler, unsettled weather into mid-August. As weather fronts move through from the west or northwest, we may get a brief ridge of high pressure, but this shouldn't last for more than a day. This is thanks to the sharper temperature contrast we anticipate will develop over Europe, with cooler air in the northwest and warmth in the southeast.

These temperature contrasts help strengthen the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere. This in turn drives surface weather systems and makes them pass through us quicker. There is a slight chance these ridges are a little more frequent, especially later in the week, and we see some more consistently dry, sunny weather. This would likely still be cooler than normal, as northerly winds will bring in air from near Iceland, but it would be much drier. We expect perhaps a 20% chance of this alternative scenario.

Monday 9 August to – Sunday 22 August

Unsettled and cool but maybe drier in late August.

The big question heading into the longer-range outlook is just how long with this low pressure pattern be stuck over the UK? The answer is likely at least through mid-August, although high pressure is looking a bit more likely later in the month. Through mid-August we think the most likely outlook if for continued low pressure in northern Europe. More frequent Atlantic weather fronts will keep things changeable day-to-day, with some warmer and drier spells likely, although they may be fleeting. This is still a cooler pattern with more frequent north-west winds dragging in air from nearer Iceland and Greenland. Between fronts will be the best time for warmer and drier conditions with short-lived ridges of high pressure move in from the southwest and bring more tropical air.

Late in August the forecast become a little more tricky with a growing potential for high pressure to be more influential. The latest computer model guidance favours a continuation of low pressure over the UK through the end of August, but this is a bit at odds with some of the signals we're seeing from the northern hemispheric weather patterns. To complicate things further, the UK is sat on the boundary between expected low pressure and high pressure.

We expect that low pressure will be shifting more to the north of Europe later in August which should gradually allow for high pressure to dry things out and bring some warmer, sunny days for late August. This should be a slow process, but for the second half of the month we are forecasting a greater likelihood of some drier, sunnier weather.

Further ahead

We will examine late August and see if meteorological summer will end of a hot and dry or cool and wet note.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Tuesday 3 Aug - Thursday 12 Aug

Changeable conditions continuing to dominate the first half of August, with a mixture of sunny and dry periods and showery spells for all, possibly merging to give longer spells of rain. Widespread thundery showers will give away to bands of rain from the Atlantic which may bring unsettled conditions to all parts. However the south and southeast potentially seeing drier weather and the west and northwest the wettest. There remains a chance for any showers or rain to produce thunderstorms, particularly in the far south. Temperatures are most likely cooler than average for this time of year, trending to slightly cooler than average or average through the period, with the south and southwest having the best chance of seeing average temperatures.

Friday 13 Aug - Friday 27 Aug

There is a tentative sign of more settled conditions developing with higher pressure becoming slightly more likely. This means drier conditions may become more prevalent, although there is still the risk of showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures likely to trend to above average, with an increasing chance of hotter spells developing as the month progresses.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Wednesday 4 Aug - Friday 13 Aug

The unsettled, changeable conditions continue to dominate the picture for the first half of August. A mixture of sunny spells and showers, with some drier interludes, is the general pattern expected through this period for all. Some of these showery spells may merge to give slightly longer spells of rain. At first, scattered showers for most, with some thunderstorms likely to develop from these. Torrential downpours are likely in some places. Winds generally remaining breezy, with temperatures expected to be near to average, perhaps slightly above average in northern areas. Through the remainder of this period, it will likely turn settled, though a few showers cannot be ruled out, especially in southeastern areas. Drier weather than recently, with sunny spells for most through to mid-August, with temperatures trending above average.

Friday 13 Aug - Friday 27 Aug

There is a tentative sign of more settled conditions developing with higher pressure becoming slightly more likely. This means drier conditions may become more prevalent, although there is still the risk of showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures likely to trend to above average, with an increasing chance of hotter spells developing as the month progresses.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Looks like an improvement in the first half of that over yesterday's update!

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Thursday 5 Aug - Saturday 14 Aug

The unsettled, changeable conditions continue to dominate the picture for the first half of August. A mixture of sunny spells and showers, with some drier interludes, is the general pattern expected at the start of August for all. Some of these showery spells may merge to give slightly longer spells of rain. At first, scattered showers for most, with some thunderstorms likely to develop from these. Torrential downpours are likely in some places. Winds generally remaining breezy, with temperatures expected to be near to average, perhaps slightly above average in northern areas. Towards the middle of the month, it will likely turn more settled, though a few showers cannot be ruled out, especially in southeastern areas. Becoming drier than recently, with sunny spells for most temperatures trending above average.

Saturday 14 Aug - Saturday 28 Aug

Whilst there are current signals of a drier and warmer than average period from the middle of August, occasional spells of more unsettled weather, primarily in the northwest, remains possible. Accompanying this is a low risk of short-lived thundery spells, these mainly in southeastern parts. Confidence through this period remains low at present. Most should see dry and fine weather, however. Above average temperatures continue to be indicated through the remainder of August, with possibly even very warm conditions at times in southern areas.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

when did weather presenters all start using the term ‘flow’…
‘will feel cooler in the northerly flow’ ?

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when did weather presenters all start using the term ‘flow’…
‘will feel cooler in the northerly flow’ ?

I can remember them saying that in the 80s.

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Friday 6 Aug - Sunday 15 Aug

A mixture of sunny spells and showers, with some drier interludes is the general pattern expected through this period, as the unsettled, changeable conditions continue to dominate. Some of these showery spells may merge to give slightly longer spells of rain, with some thunderstorms likely to develop from these. Torrential downpours are likely in some places. There is a risk of strong winds at times for some, and temperatures are expected to be below average, but perhaps slightly above average in northern areas. Through the remainder of this period, it will likely turn settled, though a few showers cannot be ruled out, especially in southeastern areas. This will bring drier weather, with sunny spells for most through to mid-August, and temperatures trending above average.

Sunday 15 Aug - Sunday 29 Aug

Whilst there are current signals of a drier and warmer than average period from the middle of August, occasional spells of more unsettled weather, primarily in the northwest, remains possible. Accompanying this is a low risk of short-lived thundery spells, these mainly in southeastern parts. Confidence through this period remains low at present. However, most should see dry and fine weather. Above average temperatures continue to be indicated through the remainder of August, with possibly even very warm conditions at times in southern areas

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 7 Aug - Monday 16 Aug

A mixture of sunny spells and showers, with some drier interludes is the general pattern expected through the start of this period, as unsettled, changeable conditions continue to dominate. Some of these showery spells may merge to give slightly longer spells of rain, with some thunderstorms likely to develop from these. Torrential downpours are likely in some places. There is a risk of strong winds at times for some, and temperatures are expected to be below average, but perhaps slightly above average in northern areas. Through the remainder of this period, it will likely turn more settled, though a few showers cannot be ruled out, especially in southeastern areas. This will bring drier weather, with sunny spells for most through to mid-August, and temperatures trending closer to, perhaps above average.

Tuesday 17 Aug - Tuesday 31 Aug

Whilst there are current signals of a drier and warmer than average period from the middle of August, occasional spells of more unsettled weather, primarily in the northwest, remains possible. Accompanying this is a low risk of short-lived thundery spells, these mainly in southeastern parts. Confidence through this period remains low at present. However, most should see dry and fine weather. Above average temperatures continue to be indicated through the second half of August, with a small possibility of very warm conditions at times in southern areas.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Monday 9 Aug - Wednesday 18 Aug

Sunny spells and showers for many areas at the start of this period, with most frequent showers probably in the north and west. By the middle of next week there is an increasing likelihood of thicker cloud bringing rain to northwestern areas, together with stronger winds. These more unsettled conditions are likely to spread slowly southeastwards through the latter part of next week. Beyond this it is likely to remain changeable; confidence is low in terms of detail, but most places will likely see showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some drier, more settled periods. Some strong winds are possible at times, especially in the northwest. Temperatures are most likely to be around average, perhaps warm in the east and southeast.

Thursday 19 Aug - Thursday 2 Sep

Although confidence is very low through this period, a continuation of changeable conditions is most likely. Some more settled weather may develop, particularly towards the north and northeast of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be above average, with the potential for hotter weather later in the month with rainfall most likely below average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/