No change to last week's update. I am still expecting the CET to come in around 17.7C.

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Chart 1

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Chart 2

Final Hadley figure is exactly aligned with what I was thinking. 17.71C is the final figure.

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

Congratulations to Whether Idle who was very close with his prediction for this month at 17.72C.

 Final Hadley figure is exactly aligned with what I was thinking. 17.71C is the final figure.

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

Congratulations to Whether Idle who was very close with his prediction for this month at 17.72C.

 

Well done Whether Idle! I went too low this month. My prediction radar is definitely malfunctioning this year 

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Final Hadley figure is exactly aligned with what I was thinking. 17.71C is the final figure.

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

Congratulations to Whether Idle who was very close with his prediction for this month at 17.72C.

Well done GW- very accurate forecasting.

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Final Hadley figure is exactly aligned with what I was thinking. 17.71C is the final figure.

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

 

That was an awesome projection my friend! Nailed it! Well done! 

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Well done Whether Idle! I went too low this month. My prediction radar is definitely malfunctioning this year 

Hi Gez. The problem is that when you have a month like I did in February IIRC when you’re more than 2c off, it is almost impossible to recover from. I’ve had 2 good months on the trot with a combined error of 0.01c but it is a long year and the weather is IMHO now well and truly messed up so predictions are fraught with extra risk. Just keep plugging away I say. You’re only as good as your luck and your last prediction. Also - thanks to GW for his continuing excellent work on this competition. 

 

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I know what you mean Whether Idle - while not as impressive as your 0.01 across two months, by my calculations, I'm fairly sure I have the lowest combined error for Mar-Jul... but add January in and I drop to 5th and with the February debacle I'm down in 10th!

This sort of thing has led me to wonder whether a maximum error cap of, say, 2.0°C would encourage more in the way of 'bold' estimates - but I'm not sure it's really fair to make it so that the 'bold ones' have potentially got more to gain than lose relative to others.

Going more than a degree from average for the CET is a heck of a thing really - it's not something that you could reasonably expect to get right reliably. Of course, these days, you've generally got a better chance if you go more than a degree above average than below, but exceptions still happen more than occasionally, as April-May showed us starkly.

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The league table this month promises to be particularly interesting.

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I know what you mean Whether Idle - while not as impressive as your 0.01 across two months, by my calculations, I'm fairly sure I have the lowest combined error for Mar-Jul... but add January in and I drop to 5th and with the February debacle I'm down in 10th!

This sort of thing has led me to wonder whether a maximum error cap of, say, 2.0°C would encourage more in the way of 'bold' estimates - but I'm not sure it's really fair to make it so that the 'bold ones' have potentially got more to gain than lose relative to others.

Going more than a degree from average for the CET is a heck of a thing really - it's not something that you could reasonably expect to get right reliably. Of course, these days, you've generally got a better chance if you go more than a degree above average than below, but exceptions still happen more than occasionally, as April-May showed us starkly.

I understand the 2c cap but having thought about it, my view is it would detract from the raw unadulterated terror of the competition. I think this year many more punters than usual are going to be in with a shout in this competition, mostly as a result of the wobbling gyrations of our weather as the climate system and associated weather adjusts to what is now unfolding in the Arctic. 

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Annual CET competition - July update

Here is the July table. We have a new leader! Spring Sun Winter Dread is now in the lead for the first time this year. Whether Idle is the joint biggest climber within the top 10, moving up eight places into sixth. Stormchaser is also up eight places into tenth.

Table

I've dropped 10 places - Got way out with this one and the last.

All good fun though.

 

 

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Annual CET competition - July update

Here is the July table. We have a new leader! Spring Sun Winter Dread is now in the lead for the first time this year. Whether Idle is the joint biggest climber within the top 10, moving up eight places into sixth. Stormchaser is also up eight places into tenth.

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Table

 

 

Cheers, GW.

Very tight this year (or is it like this every year? I forget ) and with the big month to month swings we've had so far in terms of the weather, it could be a volatile run-in

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Good to be on the summit for the first time in 5 years (I got lucky with my first ever prediction in 2016 IIRC) although leading from the front is not always easy!
The temptation would be to make conservative predictions for the rest of the year but knowing 2021 that may not be so sensible...

Annual CET competition - July update

Here is the July table. We have a new leader! Spring Sun Winter Dread is now in the lead for the first time this year. Whether Idle is the joint biggest climber within the top 10, moving up eight places into sixth. Stormchaser is also up eight places into tenth.

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Table

 

Well done everyone & thanks GW.

 

ouch to the drop of 11 places! So m uch swings & roundabouts for me this year lol, Let's see if my guess this month put's me on the bottom 

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Ignore the power of Whether Idle at your peril. 

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Here are the charts for July

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