Met Office Hadley       18.7c        Anomaly       2.c provisional to 23rd

Metcheck                    17.79c      Anomaly       1.33c

Netweather                 18.4c        Anomaly       1.91c

Peasedown St John    18.6c     Anomaly      1.61c.

Thanks for the update GW!  From my point of view it has been a good summer so far. 

Met Office Hadley       18.6c      Anomaly      2.7c provisional to 24th

Metcheck                    17.77c    Anomaly      1.30c

Netweather                 18.36c    Anomaly      1.87c 

Peasedown St John    18.34c    Anomaly     1.49c. 

Met Office Hadley      18.6c       Anomaly       2.6c provisional to 25th

Metcheck                   17.76c     Anomaly       1.39c

Netweather                18.33c     Anomaly       1.44c

Peasedown St John   18.34c     Anomaly        .49c.

Met Office Hadley       18.6c       Anomaly     2.7c  provisional to 26th

Metcheck                    17.82c     Anomaly      1.32c

Netweather                 18.37c     Anomaly      1.88c 

Peasedown St John     18.34c     Anomaly     1.49c.

Quick calculation based on assumption average to 26th is currently 18.6 exactly (which it won't be).

26x18.6 = 483.6

Required for an 18.0C finish = 18.0x31=558

558-483.6=74.4

74.4÷ 5 (remaining days) =14.9approx. So for an 18C month today and the next 4 days must average at least 14.9C.

However, sadly, the usual downjustments mean we are probably on or short of 18.0 now-  remember the expectations in July 2014?

Even so, with a 14.7 min last night (it's actually above 21C here at the moment) the last 4 days might only require about 14.5 per day.

Thoughts?

Quick calculation based on assumption average to 26th is currently 18.6 exactly (which it won't be).

26x18.6 = 483.6

Required for an 18.0C finish = 18.0x31=558

558-483.6=74.4

74.4÷ 5 (remaining days) =14.9approx. So for an 18C month today and the next 4 days must average at least 14.9C.

However, sadly, the usual downjustments mean we are probably on or short of 18.0 now-  remember the expectations in July 2014?

Even so, with a 14.7 min last night (it's actually above 21C here at the moment) the last 4 days might only require about 14.5 per day.

Thoughts?

Eyeballing the CET locations it looks like the final 5 days including today will bring means of roughly 18, 15.5, 14, 14.5 and 16C, so quite cool compared with recently. Cooler nights doing much of the damage. 

Met Office Hadley        18.6c       Anomaly       2.6c provisional to 27th

Metcheck                     17.77c     Anomaly       1.31c

Netweather                  18.36c     Anomaly       1.87c

Peasedown St John     18.36c     Anomaly      1.51c. 

Met Office Hadley        18.6c       Anomaly       2.6c provisional to 27th

Metcheck                     17.77c     Anomaly       1.31c

Netweather                  18.36c     Anomaly       1.87c

Peasedown St John     18.36c     Anomaly      1.51c. 

And that, with 4 days to go, means we only require 13.95C for the 18 finish.

Now there's a cool spell afoot, but I think it would be poor show to do that for 4 days although the end of July 2015 was close to that over the last 9 days!

 And that, with 4 days to go, means we only require 13.95C for the 18 finish.

Now there's a cool spell afoot, but I think it would be poor show to do that for 4 days although the end of July 2015 was close to that over the last 9 days!

Thanks for the daily updates Bert! As Global mentioned in this thread on July 23, the estimate is currently about 0.6C too high so unfortunately a 18.0C+ CET is almost certainly not going to happen this July. 

 

Thanks for the daily updates Bert! As Global mentioned in this thread on July 23, the estimate is currently about 0.6C too high so unfortunately a 18.0C+ CET is almost certainly not going to happen this July. 

Yeah, I am inclined to agree Gez that it is unlikely; but high 17s will be a cert and for me,  the overall summer CET is the interest. June was fairly good and so a high 17 followed by a decent August will still give us a 'good summer' shot. 

Met Office Hadley       18.6c       Anomaly      2.6c provisional to 28th

Metcheck                     17.65c     Anomaly      1.19c

Netweather                  18.27c     Anomaly      1.78c

Peasedown St John     18.14c     Anomaly      1.21c.    

Met Office Hadley       18.6c       Anomaly      2.6c provisional to 28th

Metcheck                     17.65c     Anomaly      1.19c

Netweather                  18.27c     Anomaly      1.78c

Peasedown St John     18.14c     Anomaly      1.21c.    

Well that does surprise me- it has held at 18.6 for 5 days!

Meaning if it was accurate and no downjustments were made, only 12.4 would be needed for today and the next two days for that 18. We went down to 13 last night and it's 21 now. 

I am hoping that the surplus over the required pre-downjustment figure will compensate for the downjustment itself. Still a chance.

Met Office Hadley         18.5c      Anomaly      2.4c provisional to 29th

Metcheck                      17.59c    Anomaly      1.13c

Netweather                   18.19c    Anomaly      1.7c

Peasedown St John      18.06c      Anomaly      1.21c. 

Met Office Hadley         18.5c      Anomaly      2.4c provisional to 29th

Metcheck                      17.59c    Anomaly      1.13c

Netweather                   18.19c    Anomaly      1.7c

Peasedown St John      18.06c      Anomaly      1.21c. 

So now just 10.8 needed today and tomorrow, pre downjustment.

Looks like its going to come in at 17.8/17.9 after downwards adjustment.

No change to last week's update. I am still expecting the CET to come in around 17.7C.

Chart 1

Chart 2

No change to last week's update. I am still expecting the CET to come in around 17.7C.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 2

Not surprised, realistically. Still a good number though.

I still don't understand why Hadley publishes data that others clearly know is inaccurate: do they not know it's not correct?

Met Office Hadley        18.4c      Anomaly     2.3c provisional to 30th

Metcheck                     17.50c    Anomaly     1.04c

Ntweather                    18.1c     Anomaly     1.61c

Peasedown St John     18.08c    Anomaly     1.23c.  

I've bollocksed this month up - Nearly 2C too low.