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Offline ARTzeman  
#61 Posted : 24 July 2021 10:26:21(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,103
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       18.7c        Anomaly       2.c provisional to 23rd

Metcheck                    17.79c      Anomaly       1.33c

Netweather                 18.4c        Anomaly       1.91c

Peasedown St John    18.6c     Anomaly      1.61c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Caz  
#62 Posted : 24 July 2021 19:36:07(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 22,568
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Thanks for the update GW!  From my point of view it has been a good summer so far. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#63 Posted : 25 July 2021 10:33:03(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,103
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       18.6c      Anomaly      2.7c provisional to 24th

Metcheck                    17.77c    Anomaly      1.30c

Netweather                 18.36c    Anomaly      1.87c 

Peasedown St John    18.34c    Anomaly     1.49c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#64 Posted : 26 July 2021 10:26:54(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,103
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      18.6c       Anomaly       2.6c provisional to 25th

Metcheck                   17.76c     Anomaly       1.39c

Netweather                18.33c     Anomaly       1.44c

Peasedown St John   18.34c     Anomaly        .49c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#65 Posted : 27 July 2021 10:18:08(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,103
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       18.6c       Anomaly     2.7c  provisional to 26th

Metcheck                    17.82c     Anomaly      1.32c

Netweather                 18.37c     Anomaly      1.88c 

Peasedown St John     18.34c     Anomaly     1.49c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Bertwhistle  
#66 Posted : 27 July 2021 10:49:19(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,592
Location: Central Southern England

Quick calculation based on assumption average to 26th is currently 18.6 exactly (which it won't be).

26x18.6 = 483.6

Required for an 18.0C finish = 18.0x31=558

558-483.6=74.4

74.4÷ 5 (remaining days) =14.9approx. So for an 18C month today and the next 4 days must average at least 14.9C.

However, sadly, the usual downjustments mean we are probably on or short of 18.0 now-  remember the expectations in July 2014?

Even so, with a 14.7 min last night (it's actually above 21C here at the moment) the last 4 days might only require about 14.5 per day.

Thoughts?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline TimS  
#67 Posted : 27 July 2021 13:38:00(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,380
Location: Brockley

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

Quick calculation based on assumption average to 26th is currently 18.6 exactly (which it won't be).

26x18.6 = 483.6

Required for an 18.0C finish = 18.0x31=558

558-483.6=74.4

74.4÷ 5 (remaining days) =14.9approx. So for an 18C month today and the next 4 days must average at least 14.9C.

However, sadly, the usual downjustments mean we are probably on or short of 18.0 now-  remember the expectations in July 2014?

Even so, with a 14.7 min last night (it's actually above 21C here at the moment) the last 4 days might only require about 14.5 per day.

Thoughts?

Eyeballing the CET locations it looks like the final 5 days including today will bring means of roughly 18, 15.5, 14, 14.5 and 16C, so quite cool compared with recently. Cooler nights doing much of the damage. 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline ARTzeman  
#68 Posted : 28 July 2021 10:27:31(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,103
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        18.6c       Anomaly       2.6c provisional to 27th

Metcheck                     17.77c     Anomaly       1.31c

Netweather                  18.36c     Anomaly       1.87c

Peasedown St John     18.36c     Anomaly      1.51c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Bertwhistle  
#69 Posted : 28 July 2021 10:52:26(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,592
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley        18.6c       Anomaly       2.6c provisional to 27th

Metcheck                     17.77c     Anomaly       1.31c

Netweather                  18.36c     Anomaly       1.87c

Peasedown St John     18.36c     Anomaly      1.51c. 

And that, with 4 days to go, means we only require 13.95C for the 18 finish.

Now there's a cool spell afoot, but I think it would be poor show to do that for 4 days although the end of July 2015 was close to that over the last 9 days!

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline GezM  
#70 Posted : 28 July 2021 14:46:05(UTC)
GezM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,182
Man
United Kingdom
Location: St Albans

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

 And that, with 4 days to go, means we only require 13.95C for the 18 finish.

Now there's a cool spell afoot, but I think it would be poor show to do that for 4 days although the end of July 2015 was close to that over the last 9 days!

Thanks for the daily updates Bert! As Global mentioned in this thread on July 23, the estimate is currently about 0.6C too high so unfortunately a 18.0C+ CET is almost certainly not going to happen this July. 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline Bertwhistle  
#71 Posted : 28 July 2021 18:00:15(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,592
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: GezM Go to Quoted Post

 

Thanks for the daily updates Bert! As Global mentioned in this thread on July 23, the estimate is currently about 0.6C too high so unfortunately a 18.0C+ CET is almost certainly not going to happen this July. 

Yeah, I am inclined to agree Gez that it is unlikely; but high 17s will be a cert and for me,  the overall summer CET is the interest. June was fairly good and so a high 17 followed by a decent August will still give us a 'good summer' shot. 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline ARTzeman  
#72 Posted : 29 July 2021 10:18:19(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,103
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       18.6c       Anomaly      2.6c provisional to 28th

Metcheck                     17.65c     Anomaly      1.19c

Netweather                  18.27c     Anomaly      1.78c

Peasedown St John     18.14c     Anomaly      1.21c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Bertwhistle  
#73 Posted : 29 July 2021 13:31:05(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,592
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley       18.6c       Anomaly      2.6c provisional to 28th

Metcheck                     17.65c     Anomaly      1.19c

Netweather                  18.27c     Anomaly      1.78c

Peasedown St John     18.14c     Anomaly      1.21c.    

Well that does surprise me- it has held at 18.6 for 5 days!

Meaning if it was accurate and no downjustments were made, only 12.4 would be needed for today and the next two days for that 18. We went down to 13 last night and it's 21 now. 

I am hoping that the surplus over the required pre-downjustment figure will compensate for the downjustment itself. Still a chance.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline ARTzeman  
#74 Posted : 30 July 2021 10:21:58(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,103
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         18.5c      Anomaly      2.4c provisional to 29th

Metcheck                      17.59c    Anomaly      1.13c

Netweather                   18.19c    Anomaly      1.7c

Peasedown St John      18.06c      Anomaly      1.21c. 

Edited by user 30 July 2021 10:23:40(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Bertwhistle  
#75 Posted : 30 July 2021 12:09:39(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,592
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley         18.5c      Anomaly      2.4c provisional to 29th

Metcheck                      17.59c    Anomaly      1.13c

Netweather                   18.19c    Anomaly      1.7c

Peasedown St John      18.06c      Anomaly      1.21c. 

So now just 10.8 needed today and tomorrow, pre downjustment.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline springsunshine  
#76 Posted : 30 July 2021 17:22:23(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,648
Location: Bournemouth

Looks like its going to come in at 17.8/17.9 after downwards adjustment.

Offline Global Warming  
#77 Posted : 31 July 2021 08:36:15(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,638
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

No change to last week's update. I am still expecting the CET to come in around 17.7C.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Bertwhistle  
#78 Posted : 31 July 2021 09:58:17(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,592
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

No change to last week's update. I am still expecting the CET to come in around 17.7C.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Not surprised, realistically. Still a good number though.

I still don't understand why Hadley publishes data that others clearly know is inaccurate: do they not know it's not correct?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline ARTzeman  
#79 Posted : 31 July 2021 10:28:55(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,103
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        18.4c      Anomaly     2.3c provisional to 30th

Metcheck                     17.50c    Anomaly     1.04c

Ntweather                    18.1c     Anomaly     1.61c

Peasedown St John     18.08c    Anomaly     1.23c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#80 Posted : 31 July 2021 14:02:36(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,437
Location: South Cambridgeshire

I've bollocksed this month up - Nearly 2C too low.

 

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

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