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The output for the SE does not look promising over the next week or so despite today Monday being a very pleasant Summer's day. Are there any signs of an improvement materialising as we go into August? Certainly temperatures after today seem to take quite a dip for this time of the year.

Very tight spread on the GEFS right out to the 10th of August for the relatively cool and unsettled conditions. An unusually high level of confidence in the outlook for the next 2 weeks at least. Could become quite a boring period of model watching.

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Yes, unusually high level of confidence is the word. Looks like a pattern has locked in and will be with us for a while. At either end of that overall pattern though there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty on the ground. It could be a NW/SE split with fairly dry conditions down here, or wet and windy everywhere.

The latest from Judah Cohen hints at the overall pattern persisting for most of August.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/ 

Seeing as my holiday this year is in the Channel Is I really need it to be the NW/SE split version rather than the wet and windy everywhere one.

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Jet - a rather disorganised loop dipping well south into France to Wed 4th; then briefly more direct across the UK before a tighter loop around the UK for the week of Mon 9th (with the UK on the 'wrong' side.

WX summaries continuing cool and (esp in NW) wet through the next two weeks

GFS - LP 1000mb NE England Thu 29th moving slowly E-wards leaving a legacy of light N-ly winds as HP sits off to the SW. That HP moves in Mon 2nd but is displaced by a new trough reaching W Scotland 995mb Fri 6th and an even deeper one 990mb N Ireland Tue 10th. Although the centre moves steadily E, again it leaves a trough hanging back with N/NE winds

GEFS - continuing cool (perhaps a little warmer at the end) with good agreement between runs and intermittent rain in the S through to Thu 12th. In the N, there is heavier rain later this week, then a dry few days, but significant rain resuming around Wed 4th

ECM  - similar to GFS; the HP Mon 2nd is however weaker and more and colder air is imported by the lp on Fri 6th

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An unsettled theme for the UK across the NWP for the next 7-10 days it has to be said. 

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The ECM which had often been the more optimistic model also looks pretty poor this morning it has to be said. I wonder if the Met Office extended outlook which is still talking about more settled conditions for mid August (although these have been pushed back day by day for a week or more now, in the same way the cold weather often is in winter) will finally take a reality check today?

Having said that, though, the actual weather still looks generally better than the charts might suggest, at least over the coming days, which showers fairly few and far between and still plenty of sunshine around.

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The ECM which had often been the more optimistic model also looks pretty poor this morning it has to be said. I wonder if the Met Office extended outlook which is still talking about more settled conditions for mid August (although these have been pushed back day by day for a week or more now, in the same way the cold weather often is in winter) will finally take a reality check today?

Having said that, though, the actual weather still looks generally better than the charts might suggest, at least over the coming days, which showers fairly few and far between and still plenty of sunshine around.

That's exactly what I was thinking this morning. It all depends on your preferences of course but viewing the GFS this morning it looks ok to me - sunshine and showers, temps around 18 - 22C no great washout. I can put up with that. 

 

That's exactly what I was thinking this morning. It all depends on your preferences of course but viewing the GFS this morning it looks ok to me - sunshine and showers, temps around 18 - 22C no great washout. I can put up with that. 

Indeed. GEFS at least looks OK.

Just enough rain to keep the garden ticking over

 

and temperatures in the "comfort zone"

 

 

though a tad breezy at times

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That's exactly what I was thinking this morning. It all depends on your preferences of course but viewing the GFS this morning it looks ok to me - sunshine and showers, temps around 18 - 22C no great washout. I can put up with that. 

The Azores high is gaining momentum yet again in the extended (beyond day 10) last few EC runs. I really don't want to see another repeat of what we had the last two weeks, but it is precisely because I don't want it to happen that most likely probably will. 

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6Z GFS mean shows more HP influence across the south in the latter stages, hoping for the trend to continue.

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Where's the previous Model Output thread disappeared to???

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Where's the previous Model Output thread disappeared to???

I think Brian got fed up with the nonsense being posted!

Anyway, cutting through the trees of the latest output it looks like being mainly gently unsettled for much of the time in the south, albeit with cool uppers. That said, conditions on the ground are likely to be often useable whereas less so to the north and west nearer to any low pressure. 

Proper Northern blocking type set up later on in the ECM run. And the first sub -5c 850s for a while appearing to the East of Greenland. Looks more like a November/December chart than mid Summer.

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Proper Northern blocking type set up later on in the ECM run. And the first sub -5c 850s for a while appearing to the East of Greenland. Looks more like a November/December chart than mid Summer.

August  at least the first 10 days or so is indeed looking a total write off. Given the BBC update, I daresay the whole month will be terrible. And if it is a write off, given that the summer is where much of my livelihood comes from, it'll end up costing me a few thousand pounds.

After the ravages of last summer when the first Covid lockdown coincided with glorious weather during which I could have earned my living, but no cricket was allowed, this last 15 months has been an unmitigated disaster for me personally......My career is almost destroyed because of the last 15 months and I fail to see any reason to be cheerful, given that a wet August, at the height of my coaching season, looks to be heading down the pan.

People wonder why I am so depressed.....Well this is the reason. My livelihood is in tatters this summer due to rain and last summer due to Covid-19. You couldn't make it up.

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August  at least the first 10 days or so is indeed looking a total write off. Given the BBC update, I daresay the whole month will be terrible. 

The BBC have done a volte-face with their updates

This reflects the current situation although in truth it may be OK in the south

Too early to write the month off at this stage 

August  at least the first 10 days or so is indeed looking a total write off. Given the BBC update, I daresay the whole month will be terrible. And if it is a write off, given that the summer is where much of my livelihood comes from, it'll end up costing me a few thousand pounds.

Looks like an Autumnal August. August is often an unsettled month. HST, Summer can sometimes return - especially in September (at least in the SE). Let's hope this materialise, as Septembers can produce some of the loveliest weather.

The heat returns on the latest Gfs Op.
Far too early to pretend August should be written off!

The heat returns on the latest Gfs Op.
Far too early to pretend August should be written off!

I've just looked through the whole GFS and I think you are mistaken. No heat retuning on the 0Z at all.

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I've just looked through the whole GFS and I think you are mistaken. No heat retuning on the 0Z at all.

Nice Azores ridge asserting itself from 10th. This would be consistent with the Met office extended outlook. They could be mistaken of course, as they often are. I’m just pointing out what’s being suggested by the available data.