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Offline Global Warming  
#61 Posted : 01 July 2021 10:12:13(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

The final June figure is 15.53C

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

Well done to Whether Idle who was spot on with an exact prediction. Not often someone gets it correct to 2 decimals.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Saint Snow  
#62 Posted : 01 July 2021 10:14:47(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

The final June figure is 15.53C

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

Well done to Whether Idle who was spot on with an exact prediction. Not often someone gets it correct to 2 decimals.

 

Congrats to WI, but a huge disappointment in the final figure after a great start.

The overall table isn't going to get the seismic jolt that a figure well into the 16's would have given.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Offline Global Warming  
#63 Posted : 01 July 2021 10:21:55(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Here are the daily stats by station (per my calculations rather than official figures).

West was best this month. The maximum temperature at Stonyhurst was almost as high as Pershore College. In the final three days of the month, Stonyhurst was by far the warmest station.

Table

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Global Warming  
#64 Posted : 01 July 2021 10:39:31(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Here are the charts for June

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Caz  
#65 Posted : 01 July 2021 10:57:07(UTC)
Caz

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Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 23,949
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

The final June figure is 15.53C

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

Well done to Whether Idle who was spot on with an exact prediction. Not often someone gets it correct to 2 decimals.

Oh wow!  Well done WI!  That is impressive!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition

Offline Darren S  
#66 Posted : 01 July 2021 11:13:26(UTC)
Darren S

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United Kingdom
Location: Crowthorne, Berks

Disappointed, I thought I was finally going to get some luck in this year's competition mid month.

When was the last time we had got to July 1st without 30C being reached in the UK? Must be a few years ago.

Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berkshire Winter 2021/2: Snow Days: 4 Snow Cover Days: 1 Current Depth: 0 cm Max Depth: 1 cm Total Depth: 1 cm

Arborfield Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Offline Global Warming  
#67 Posted : 01 July 2021 11:15:02(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Annual CET competition - June update

Here is the latest competition table. No significant change at the top part of the table this month. Most people had very close predictions. Overall the prediction error was less than 0.5C on average this month.

Table

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Global Warming  
#68 Posted : 01 July 2021 11:16:02(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Originally Posted by: Darren S Go to Quoted Post

Disappointed, I thought I was finally going to get some luck in this year's competition mid month.

When was the last time we had got to July 1st without 30C being reached in the UK? Must be a few years ago.

2014

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Col  
#69 Posted : 01 July 2021 11:17:30(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,712
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Annual CET competition - June update

Here is the latest competition table. No significant change at the top part of the table this month. Most people had very close predictions. Overall the prediction error was less than 0.5C on average this month.

Table

Still 5th so I shouldn't really complain but with a 15.92C prediction I had hoped for so much more this month....

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Darren S  
#70 Posted : 01 July 2021 11:22:40(UTC)
Darren S

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 12,633
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Crowthorne, Berks

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Annual CET competition - June update

Here is the latest competition table. No significant change at the top part of the table this month. Most people had very close predictions. Overall the prediction error was less than 0.5C on average this month.

Table

How the mighty have fallen! 

Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berkshire Winter 2021/2: Snow Days: 4 Snow Cover Days: 1 Current Depth: 0 cm Max Depth: 1 cm Total Depth: 1 cm

Arborfield Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#71 Posted : 01 July 2021 11:27:58(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 9,343
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Annual CET competition - June update

Here is the latest competition table. No significant change at the top part of the table this month. Most people had very close predictions. Overall the prediction error was less than 0.5C on average this month.

Table

Heady days for me , very unusual. 

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline The Professional  
#72 Posted : 01 July 2021 11:55:34(UTC)
The Professional

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Joined: 31/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 188
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Kings Worthy

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

The final June figure is 15.53C

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

Well done to Whether Idle who was spot on with an exact prediction. Not often someone gets it correct to 2 decimals.

Well done WI. It must also be very unusual to have 6 entrants guess within 0.03c of the final result! I'm very happy finishing 0.02c away, particularly as it looked like I'd be a long way out at the halfway point.

Looking at the latest competition table, it's not ridiculous to say that anyone could still win it (including Darren!).

Offline Frank H  
#73 Posted : 01 July 2021 11:55:48(UTC)
Frank H

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2014(UTC)
Posts: 262
Location: Wrightington, Wigan

Well played Whether Idle

Offline redmoons  
#74 Posted : 01 July 2021 13:27:18(UTC)
redmoons

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,631
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Watford

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

The final June figure is 15.53C

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

Well done to Whether Idle who was spot on with an exact prediction. Not often someone gets it correct to 2 decimals.

 

Well done WI 

Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

Blog - http://www.andrewlalchan.com | Live weather - http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk

Offline Stormchaser  
#75 Posted : 01 July 2021 13:29:18(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,076
Man
Location: West Hants

Well done to all who were within half a degree of the actual this month. Given the two halves nature, it was a tricky one to pin down.

Incidentally, if you'd predicted the 1991-2020 average for every month so far, you'd be in 24th place, so it's not been an easy year to date!

I'm still hauling myself up the steps from near the bottom after the Jan-Feb fiasco. Especially Feb, without which I'd be in 8th place and a bit saner of mind .

 

Very interested in seeing the July estimates. It's one of those months which is starting differently to how most longer-range forecast products have been predicting it will be overall. Always a trickier customer!

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Saint Snow  
#76 Posted : 01 July 2021 14:43:57(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 55,469
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Darren S Go to Quoted Post

Disappointed, I thought I was finally going to get some luck in this year's competition mid month.

 

 

This month was cruel. 

 

PS - GW, a tiny point of order: I was sitting in 10th last month and am up to 7th; that's a rise of 3 places not 5. But thanks as always for your superb running of this comp.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Offline Whether Idle  
#77 Posted : 01 July 2021 17:14:27(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 9,192
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Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

The final June figure is 15.53C

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

Well done to Whether Idle who was spot on with an exact prediction. Not often someone gets it correct to 2 decimals.

Thanks GW. I figured out the month of 2 halves, my thinking being  it was going to go downhill. Getting the month spot on was a tad on the fortunate side. But it moved me up only 5 places in the table as most people hedged their bets. Now to July!

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Offline KevBrads1  
#78 Posted : 02 July 2021 05:45:46(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,942
Location: Irlam

The first half of 2021 has been pretty similiar to that of 1966

1996  2.9  5.7  6.5  7.2  11.0  15.4

2021  3.1  5.1  7.2  6.4  10.1  15.5

July 1966 had a CET of 15.0C....

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline GezM  
#79 Posted : 02 July 2021 09:03:55(UTC)
GezM

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Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,386
Man
United Kingdom
Location: St Albans

Originally Posted by: Saint 

PS - GW, a tiny point of order: I was sitting in 10th last month and am up to 7th Go to Quoted Post

Yes, it might be worth checking the latest table. I noticed a certain person in 22nd place has reduced their overall anomaly by about 0 5C this month and has jumped 14 places as a result.  Perhaps there was another correction to their results?

Edited by user 02 July 2021 09:05:27(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline Global Warming  
#80 Posted : 03 July 2021 07:38:55(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

 

This month was cruel. 

 

PS - GW, a tiny point of order: I was sitting in 10th last month and am up to 7th; that's a rise of 3 places not 5. But thanks as always for your superb running of this comp.

Sorry about that. I won't repost the table for that small error. I think the movements for everyone else are correct.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

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