Warnings out for thunderstorms Weds-Fri now for much of England and a chunk of Wales. It's unusual for warnings to be issued so far out - methinks they're expecting an amber out of this should things continue to look as they are.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-06-16&id=e5d93992-f850-42e3-b720-2c18602d92c4&details

 

Really they can accurately forecast this way out when they were very very very wrong today with sunny weather forecast? Sadly they are worse than the forecast organizations made in the third world contrives they can at least more accurate.

The only thing preventing an Amber at present is the likelihood of the event happening.

IIRC they don't issue ambers more than 24 (or is it 36?) hours out. We've seen this before in the winter, where heavy snow or gales are likely - the ambers only pop up late on.

It'll be interesting to see how this develops, anyway!

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Friday 18 Jun - Sunday 27 Jun

It is likely to be warm, perhaps very warm and humid towards the southeast at first with the risk of thundery showers across southeastern areas. Elsewhere sunny spells and fresher conditions, with some rain and thicker cloud towards the north and west at times. The fresher air is then likely to gradually spread to the rest of the country bringing a change to widely cooler more changeable conditions towards the end of the week, with a low risk of warm and humid air returning to the far southeast at times. This will likely bring occasional spells of rain or showers interspersed with drier and sunnier conditions. Overall, temperatures will likely average out to be close to normal.

Monday 28 Jun - Monday 12 Jul

Low confidence through this period due to mixed and weak signals. Likely to see a mix of occasional Atlantic frontal systems affecting the UK followed by spells of more settled weather through this period. This bringing periods of dry, settled and warmer weather interspersed with occasional days of thicker cloud, rain and stronger winds. Temperatures are likely to be slightly above average, although cooler conditions may occasionally affect the northwest. Meanwhile, very warm perhaps hot conditions could affect the south and east at times. Overall, rainfall amounts will likely be close to average for the time of the year. Whilst the southeast may see fewer spells of persistent rain, thunderstorms may develop during warmer periods.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 19 Jun - Monday 28 Jun

It is likely to be warm for most, to very warm and humid in the southeast where there remains a risk of thundery showers. Elsewhere, some sunny spells and variable cloud with fresher conditions. Some showers in the south and along northern and western coastlines, and windier conditions towards the far northwest. The fresher air is then likely to gradually spread to the rest of the country bringing a change to widely cooler more changeable conditions into the new week, with a low risk of warm and humid air returning to the far southeast at times. This will likely bring occasional spells of rain or showers interspersed with drier and sunnier conditions. Overall, temperatures will likely average out to be close to normal.

Tuesday 29 Jun - Tuesday 13 Jul

Low confidence through this period due to mixed and weak signals. Likely to see a mix of occasional Atlantic frontal systems affecting the UK followed by spells of more settled weather through this period. This bringing periods of dry, settled and warmer weather interspersed with occasional days of thicker cloud, rain and stronger winds. Temperatures are likely to be slightly above average, although cooler conditions may occasionally affect the northwest. Meanwhile, very warm perhaps hot conditions could affect the south and east at times. Overall, rainfall amounts will likely be close to average for the time of the year. Whilst the southeast may see fewer spells of persistent rain, thunderstorms may develop during warmer periods.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Monday 21 Jun - Wednesday 30 Jun

Unsettled conditions are likely at the start of this period, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered heavy showers, a risk thunder and perhaps hail, and longer spells of rain are possible in the north and west. Through the first half of next week, Atlantic air looks likely to spread across the country from the west, bringing a change to cooler and more changeable conditions. This will likely bring spells of rain or showers interspersed with periods of dry weather and sunny spells. The driest and brightest conditions are likely in the southeast, though further showers or thunderstorms are possible here. Temperatures are likely to recover to near normal by the end of the month.

Thursday 1 Jul - Thursday 15 Jul

Confidence is low through this period due to mixed and weak signals, but models suggest that usual summertime conditions are most probable. We are likely to see periods of dry, settled and warm weather interspersed with occasional days of thicker cloud, rain and stronger winds. Temperatures are likely to be close to average nationally. Southeastern areas may see some warm or very warm conditions at times, but these probably balanced out by cooler interludes moving in from the west. Overall, rainfall accumulations are expected to be close to average for the time of the year. Whilst southeastern areas may see fewer spells of persistent rain, thunderstorms may develop during warmer periods.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Tuesday 22 Jun - Thursday 1 Jul

Unsettled conditions are likely to continue at the start of this period, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered heavy showers, and a risk of thunder and perhaps hail. Longer spells of rain are also possible in the north and west. Atlantic air then looks likely to spread across the country from the west through the week, bringing a change to cooler and more changeable conditions. This will likely bring spells of rain or showers interspersed with periods of dry weather and sunny spells. The driest and brightest conditions are likely in the southeast, though further showers or thunderstorms are possible here. Temperatures are likely to recover to near normal by the end of the month.

Friday 2 Jul - Friday 16 Jul

Confidence is low through this period due to mixed and weak signals, but models suggest that usual summertime conditions are most probable. We are likely to see periods of dry, settled and warm weather interspersed with occasional days of thicker cloud, rain and stronger winds. Temperatures are likely to be close to average nationally. Southeastern areas may see some warm or very warm conditions at times, but these probably balanced out by cooler interludes moving in from the west. Overall, rainfall accumulations are expected to be close to average for the time of the year. Whilst southeastern areas may see fewer spells of persistent rain, thunderstorms may develop during warmer periods.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Friday 25 Jun - Sunday 4 Jul

Friday will see generally average temperatures, and a band of cloud and rain across central and southern parts gradually moving southeastwards throughout the day; drier, sunnier conditions to be expected further northwest. Then, predominantly dry weather is likely for most, but with briefly more unsettled spells of rain or showers for southern and eastern parts, as well as more prolonged rain for the northwest of the UK. Winds are most likely remaining light to moderate throughout, with temperatures hovering at or slightly above average for the time of year. Confidence becomes lower later into the period, but there is a chance of high pressure building for a time. This will most likely bring further periods of settled weather, interspersed with brief more unsettled spells.

Monday 5 Jul - Monday 19 Jul

Confidence remains low for this period, but it is possible that periods of generally settled conditions will continue, these interspersed with some briefly unsettled spells at times. Most of the rainfall from fronts moving into the country will be over northern parts of the UK. Temperatures will probably remain around average for this time of the year, with many areas seeing warm weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 26 Jun - Monday 5 Jul

Saturday will likely start cloudy in the south with outbreaks of light, patchy rain tending to brighten up through the day, however with a risk of heavy showers during the afternoon. Elsewhere will likely be dry with some sunny spells, light winds and temperatures mostly near normal. Then, predominantly dry weather is likely, but with briefly more unsettled spells of rain or showers for southern and eastern parts, alongside more prolonged rain for the northwest of the UK. Winds are most likely remaining light to moderate throughout, with temperatures at or slightly above average for the time of year. Confidence decreases later into the period, however, there's a chance of high pressure building for a time, likely bringing further periods of settled weather interspersed with brief more unsettled spells.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Mon 21 Jun 2021

Tuesday 6 Jul - Tuesday 20 Jul

Confidence remains low for this period, but it is possible that periods of generally settled conditions will continue, these interspersed with some briefly unsettled spells at times. Most of the rainfall from fronts moving into the country will be over northern parts of the UK. Temperatures will probably remain around average for this time of the year, with many areas seeing warm weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Just watched Ian Ferguson on Points West weather and he actually showed (and named) ECM, GFS and UKMET precip charts for Saturday. I don’t recall ever seeing this before? Most impressive. GFS showing the most rain....

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Tuesday 29 Jun - Thursday 8 Jul

Unsettled in the south of the UK on Tuesday with persistent rain likely and thundery showers possible, accompanied by stronger winds. Elsewhere, drier with long spells of sunshine and lighter winds. Temperatures will be warm for most, though locally suppressed under the unsettled weather. Confidence is then lower, although on balance a lot of fine and dry weather is most likely throughout. However, there are signals for some brief unsettled periods with southern and eastern areas seeing showers, possibly heavy and thundery, and more prolonged rain in the northwest. Temperatures are likely be above normal, with the potential for some very warm and humid days in the south. Winds will likely be light to moderate throughout, with a westerly flow across northern areas, and an easterly flow across the south.

Friday 9 Jul - Friday 23 Jul

Although confidence remains low, in general settled conditions are likely, with a few brief unsettled spells possible. Some northwestern areas will likely see brief spells rain and cloudy conditions at times, as well as a continued risk for periods of heavy rain or thunderstorms especially across the south. Above-average temperatures continue to be well signalled, with the chance of some very warm or hot days to come.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Thursday 1 Jul - Saturday 10 Jul

Likely a fine and dry day for most on Wednesday, although expecting increasingly large amounts of cloud inland initially, gradually burning back to the coast by day. Any showery rain will likely be confined to southeasternmost areas, but the odd heavier burst remains possible. Winds mostly light, and feeling warm or vary warm for most. Confidence is then lower, but the country is most likely to see a split between the southwest and northeast, with southern and western parts seeing some showers, and perhaps longer spells of rain, with the best of any dry weather across the north and east. Temps are likely to trend above normal, notably across some parts of the northeast. Winds remaining light to moderate for most, though possibly strong in the west at times.

Saturday 10 Jul - Saturday 24 Jul

Despite confidence remaining low through this period, the emphasis is on fine and dry weather for the majority of the UK through much of the rest of July. Some northwestern areas may perhaps experience slightly more rain and more cloud than elsewhere, but throughout there is a very low risk of thundery conditions, especially in southern areas, and more likely later in the period. Above average temperatures continue to maintain the strongest signal, which increases the possibility of some very warm or hot spells occurring.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Tuesday 6 Jul - Thursday 15 Jul

Unsettled and rather changeable conditions look most likely through the start of this period, bringing some sunny spells but also spells of rain or showers, which at times could be heavy and thundery. Temperatures generally rather warm or locally very warm in the sunniest areas. Through the new week, sunny spells and showers, or perhaps longer spells of rain are most likely across the southern half of the UK, with northern and eastern areas likely to experience the best of any fine and dry weather. Temperatures are most likely to be above normal, notably in any prolonged sunshine. Looking to become cooler in the south, from the southwest, starting from Monday. Winds will at times be strong, with coastal gales in the west and northwest.

Friday 16 Jul - Friday 30 Jul

As is typical for the time of year, confidence is relatively low for this period, but fine and dry weather for much of the UK is most likely for the rest of July. There is however the possibility that occasional spells of rain may impact north-western areas, with a very low risk of thundery conditions developing at times across the south. Temperatures are likely to be above average for much of this period, with an increased risk of some very warm or hot spells occurring.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mostly unsettled with a warm, dry spell later

_________________________________

Saturday 3 July to – Sunday 11 July

Unsettled and cool week with a few dry spells

Low pressure is set to move into the British Isles this weekend, bringing some heavy rain in places and chances for thunderstorms. A secondary low pressure system is expected to move in from the southwest early next week, making for a stormy few days for southern areas. Unsettled weather should persist throughout next week, although as the weather systems weaken later there may be a few sunny and dry spells mixed in too. Temperatures will tend to be near or a touch below average, with the coolest days expected around midweek.

Monday 12 July to – Sunday 18 July

More unsettled, cooler, and wetter weather

Through the middle of July, we expect that the most likely scenario is for a large-scale low pressure trough to persist over northern Europe, including the British Isles. This means that we should see a continuation of the cooler, wetter pattern as low pressure systems are often nearby or overhead. One complicating factor for the longer range forecasts this month is that the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that helps drive weather fronts, is rather weak at the moment. This is normal for summertime, but it also means that low pressure systems that tend to move through and head east will instead stall and sit in place, lasting much longer. However, it also means these lows will tend to be weaker, so it shouldn't be particularly windy.

Our best chances for warmer weather will be if the winds shift out of the southwest or south. There's little support for southerly winds through mid-July, but south-westerly winds are possible if high pressure builds into Germany. The main risk to the forecast is that high pressure in the Atlantic may build stronger into northern Europe than we expect. This would be a drier pattern for southern and eastern areas although wetter weather would still be possible in the west and north. Temperatures would also be a little warmer, rising slightly above average especially for southern areas. Our shorter-range computer models are showing good support for this, but they have been tending to overestimate the extent of high pressure in Europe, so caution is needed. There is perhaps a 30% chance of this pattern developing instead.

Monday 19 July to – Sunday 1 August

Decent chance of a warm, dry spell later

For the second half of July the large-scale pattern may see a bit of a shake-up thanks to some tropical rainfall anomalies around Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. Historically, this supports high pressure in the Atlantic to shift eastwards across northern Europe and head into Russia in the following weeks. In recent months this has been a useful forecasting aid and brought a couple of warm spells, such as the one we saw during the first half of June.

We think the best chances for a warmer and drier spell will be in late-July as high pressure shifts overhead from the southwest before continuing eastward into Russia. This period will likely last around a week or so and see some prolonged dry, sunny, and warm weather for the whole UK. This would be a more south-westerly wind carrying sub-tropical Atlantic air, which is warmer than normal but not overly hot. There is a chance that we could see a hot southerly wind for a few days as high pressure shifts into Germany, but confidence is low on that.

Towards the end of the month and into early August as the high moves further east, low pressure will likely return from the northwest. This will bring some fresher Atlantic air and more unsettled weather back to the UK. The cooler weather will likely be the norm for this summer, with only temporary deviations to warmer, drier spells. Confidence is low for the second half of July due to the potential for the tropical rainfall anomalies failing to develop, or to fail to link to the European weather pattern. In this case low pressure will linger throughout the month with only brief dry spells as weak highs move through. There is a 35% chance of this developing instead.

Further ahead

Any more signs of warm and dry weather in the forecast? How could tropical rainfall patterns influence the weather pattern through late July?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Thursday 8 Jul - Saturday 17 Jul

While Wednesday is likely to be another unsettled day with rain or showers, after this there is expected to be a trend towards more settled conditions as drier weather develops from the west. By the end of the week, many areas should see a of of dry weather, although still some showers at times. There is a lower chance of seeing more prolonged unsettled weather, mainly in the west. Towards the end of the period things are looking mostly fine and dry, though there remains a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Many areas are likely to see temperatures trending upwards through the period, with parts of the south potentially becoming very warm. Winds are looking to remain light across the UK for most of the period.

Sunday 18 Jul - Sunday 1 Aug

As is typical for the time of year, confidence is relatively low for this period, but fine and dry weather for much of the UK is most likely for the rest of July. There is however the possibility that occasional spells of rain may impact north-western areas, with a very low chance of thundery conditions developing at times, likely in the south. Temperatures are likely to be above average for much of this period, with an increased chance of some very warm or hot spells occurring.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Friday 9 Jul - Sunday 18 Jul

A settled regime will likely be in place across much of the country at the end of next week as drier and warmer weather develops from the west. However, there is the threat of some spells of rain and a few showers potentially crossing the northern half of the country. There is a lower chance of seeing more prolonged unsettled weather, mainly in the west. Towards the end of the period things are looking mostly fine and dry, though there remains a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Many areas are likely to see temperatures trending upwards through the period, with parts of the south potentially becoming very warm. Winds are looking to remain light across the UK for most of the period.

Monday 19 Jul - Monday 2 Aug

As is typical for the time of year, confidence is relatively low for this period, but fine and dry weather for much of the UK is most likely for the rest of July. There is however the possibility that occasional spells of rain may impact north-western areas, with a very low chance of thundery conditions developing at times, likely in the south. Temperatures are likely to be above average for much of this period, with an increased chance of some very warm or hot spells occurring.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 10 Jul - Monday 19 Jul

A cloudy start over the weekend with some rain likely in south and southwestern areas. This could break up into showers into next week, potentially widespread and heavy, especially across central and southern areas. Drier and warmer weather will then develop from the west with just a few light showers possible. The threat of some spells of rain and a few showers potentially crossing the northern half of the country at times remains. Towards the end of the period conditions are looking mostly fine and dry, though there remains a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Many areas are likely to see temperatures trending upwards through the period, with parts of the south potentially becoming very warm. Winds are looking to remain light across the UK for most of the period.

Tuesday 20 Jul - Tuesday 3 Aug

As is typical for the time of year, confidence is relatively low for this period, but fine and dry weather for much of the UK is most likely for the rest of July. There is however the possibility that occasional spells of rain may impact northwestern areas, with a very low chance of thundery conditions developing at times, especially across the south. Temperatures are likely to be above average for much of this period, with an increased chance of some very warm spells occurring in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Sunday 11 Jul - Tuesday 20 Jul

We could see a continuation of showers and longer periods of rain going into next week, these potentially heavy and widespread. From mid-next week onwards, it is most likely turning increasingly settled with a good deal of dry weather, variable cloud and spells of sunshine. For the remainder of this period, there is a chance of warmer and drier than average conditions overall. The occasional spell of rain and unsettled weather are still possible, particularly over northwestern areas. However, most of the UK could see fine and dry conditions with slight showers at times for some. Temperatures are likely to be around average in the northwest and above average elsewhere, whilst south and southeastern areas could see conditions feeling very warm.

Wednesday 21 Jul - Wednesday 4 Aug

For the rest of July and into early August, there is a chance of conditions being warmer and drier than average overall. Some occasional spells of unsettled weather are still possible, especially in the northwest of the UK, but most areas should have a good deal of fine and dry weather. There remains a low risk of thunder, especially across southern and eastern areas. Temperatures are likely to be above average, with the south possibly feeling very warm or hot at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

It is interesting the Media Thread is showing a more positive trend from mid next week for the weather to improve somewhat yet I read in the model thread the opposite observations and views . One assumes the met office are in to something?

They mention tropical weather anomalies around Indonesia, by which I assume they mean MJO.

Most dynamic models suggest the active phase is going to kick off in the western pacific around the 15th.

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/current.shtml 

The office barbecue at my place is on the 16th… I need it to be dry otherwise I’ll be in danger of breaking the indoor gathering rules which will still be in force until the following week.

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Evidence of SE bias in media reporting 

"But UK residents may be startled to learn that despite the rain and cloud they experienced, it was the second warmest June on record for Europe."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57742482

 

 The only region that had above average rainfall during June was SE England.

It was the driest June since the war up here.

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