Onwards...

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Wednesday 2 Jun - Friday 11 Jun

Whilst there is still likely to be a good deal of widespread dry weather for the start of this period, showers, which could be heavy and possibly thundery, and prolonged spells of rain are likely across the south and west of the country for a time. Temperatures most likely remaining around or above average for this first week. By the end of the period, there is a signal towards a more general cooling trend, back towards more average temperatures. Widespread fine and dry conditions are likely to persist, but also is the continued risk of showers; these unsettled conditions become most likely in the north and northwest of the country, with southeastern areas seeing more settled conditions.

Friday 11 Jun - Friday 25 Jun

Confidence is low for this period, but it is most likely that drier and more settled conditions remain across much of the UK. Whilst a good deal of fine and dry weather is possible across central and southern areas, rain and showers are a continuing risk. The north and northwest of the UK may well be more unsettled, with more frequent spells of rain and shorter-lived spells of dry conditions than elsewhere. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be around average, with warm days but still the odd chilly night, and southern areas may occasionally receive spells of warmer than average weather. Into the end of the period, conditions are looking to become more widely settled once again, across the country.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled at times with some warm, dry spells.

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Friday 28 May to – Sunday 6 June

A warm, sunny weekend with showers next week.

A warm and largely sunny bank holiday weekend is in store to close out the final few days of what has been a very cold meteorological spring. The warmth looks set to continue into next week for a while as high pressure lingers nearby to our east. However, low pressure developing south of us will bring some increased chances of heavy showers or thunderstorms through the middle of next week. Towards the end of the week and into the following weekend, some fresher Atlantic air and unsettled weather is set to return if high pressure to our east clears away.

Monday 7 June to – Sunday 13 June

Changeable weather, turning cooler and wetter.

Early June is likely to be marked by some changeable weather patterns for the UK as high pressure to the southwest battles with low pressure to the north or northeast. The best signals for cool, wet weather are east of us in Germany and Poland, but the best signals for warmer, drier weather are south of us in Spain and France.

The UK is caught up between the two weather systems and will likely see a mix of the two. Low pressure should be nearby to start the week off, leftover from the cooler trends towards the end of next week. But high pressure from the southwest will begin to build back towards the UK and push lows away to the east.
The biggest uncertainty in the forecast for early June is over just how strong this high pressure system will be. If it is stronger and pushes further north and east, the UK will see very dry and even warm weather.

If it is a little weaker, low pressure will remain near enough to give some wetter weather to eastern areas and keep the temperatures a little below average. At the moment, we are slightly favouring the latter, with low pressure close enough to keep the winds more northerly or north-westerly and maintain the fresher-feeling Atlantic air. Western and southern areas will tend to be the driest, while northern and eastern areas will have the best chances for rain. We have medium confidence on the forecast, but low confidence on the temperatures due to the extra sensitivity to the exact location of the high. Warmer weather is possible if the high shifts too far east. We have high confidence that it will not be nearly as cool as the second half of May was.

Monday 14 June to – Sunday 27 June

Drier in mid-June but more unsettled later.

The second half of June is expected to keep the changeable large-scale weather pattern in place with more influential high pressure in the middle of the month gradually giving way to lower pressure later. The best chances for some summer-like dry, sunny, and warm weather will be around mid-June when high pressure extends into the British Isles from the southwest.

This would drag warmer air from the sub-tropical Atlantic into Northwest Europe along a gentle southwest wind, displacing the cooler North Atlantic air towards Iceland and East Europe. Later in June there are still some compelling signals for high pressure to decline and shift away to the east, allowing the storm track to return from Iceland into the UK. This is a wetter and colder pattern with lows bringing in the North Atlantic air along with some occasional weather fronts. High pressure nearby to the southwest will likely occasionally reach in and give us some drier and more settled days.

The much cooler Arctic air is not except to reach this far south, so even though it will be cooler than normal it won't be nearly as cool as May turned out to be and likely still feel like summer. Confidence is medium on the forecast of a changeable weather pattern and alternating warm, dry and cool, wet periods. However, we have low confidence on the specifics for each week as timing out the pressure systems can be notoriously difficult in these patterns. For the whole month of June, we anticipate a slightly cooler and wetter than normal month broken up by occasional settled, warm spells.

Further ahead

We will use the latest data to re-examine our chances for any prolonged summer warmth as we kick off meteorological summer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Thursday 3 Jun - Saturday 12 Jun

Whilst there is still likely to be a good deal of widespread dry weather for the start of this period, showers, which could be heavy and possibly thundery, and prolonged spells of rain are likely for a time, particularly in central and southern areas of the country. Temperatures most likely remaining around or above average at this time. Towards the end of the period, there is a signal towards a more general cooling trend, back towards more average temperatures. Widespread fine and dry conditions are likely to persist, but also is the continued risk of showers; these unsettled conditions become most likely in the north and northwest of the country, with southeastern areas seeing more settled conditions.

Saturday 12 Jun - Saturday 26 Jun

Confidence is low for this period, but it is most likely that drier and more settled conditions remain across much of the UK. Whilst a good deal of fine and dry weather is possible across central and southern areas, rain and showers are a continuing risk. The north and northwest of the UK may well be more unsettled, with more frequent spells of rain and shorter-lived spells of dry conditions than elsewhere. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be around average, with warm days but still the odd chilly night, and southern areas may occasionally receive spells of warmer than average weather. Into the end of the period, conditions are looking to become more widely settled once again across the country.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Friday 4 Jun - Sunday 13 Jun

Rather mixed conditions expected at the start of the period, with a good deal of fine weather around although equally cloud and outbreaks of rain tending to gradually work its way in from the west. There also remains a risk of thunderstorms, especially in the far east and south-east, accompanied by very warm or hot conditions. Otherwise, temperatures will tend to be nearer the seasonal average, warm in the sunnier spots. Into the following week, a trend towards more settled and dry conditions overall, at least for a time, but both how quickly this arrives and how long it lasts are both very uncertain, with an increasing chance of unsettled conditions with wind and rain for north-western areas by the end of the period.

Sunday 13 Jun - Sunday 27 Jun

Confidence is typically low for this period, but it seems most likely that changeable conditions will characterise most of this period, with plenty of fine weather around but also spells of rain and showers, particularly but not exclusively across the north-west. Temperatures are likely to be around average, although this doesn't preclude short hot or cold spells during these two weeks.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 5 Jun - Monday 14 Jun

Rather mixed conditions expected at the start of the period, with a good deal of fine weather around, although equally cloud and outbreaks of rain tending to gradually work its way in from the west. There also remains a risk of thunderstorms, especially in the far east and south-east, accompanied by very warm or hot conditions. Otherwise, temperatures will trend towards nearer the seasonal average, warm in the sunnier spots. Into the following week, a trend towards more settled and dry conditions overall, however this accompanied by a risk of some showers and longer spells of light rain. There is an increasing chance of more unsettled conditions with wind and rain for north-western areas possible by the end of the period.

Monday 14 Jun - Monday 28 Jun

Confidence is typically low for this period, but it seems most likely that changeable conditions will characterise most of this period, with plenty of fine weather around but also spells of rain and showers, particularly but not exclusively across the north-west. Temperatures are likely to be around average, although this doesn't preclude short hot or cold spells during these two weeks.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Sunday 6 Jun - Tuesday 15 Jun

Rather mixed conditions are expected at the start of the period, with a good deal of fine and dry weather around, although equally cloudier conditions and outbreaks of rain tending to gradually work its way in from the west. Otherwise, temperatures will trend towards the milder side of average with the chance of some very warm or hot spells at times. Into the following week, a trend towards more settled and dry conditions overall, however this accompanied by a risk of some showers and longer spells of light rain developing at times. There is an increasing chance of more unsettled conditions with wind and rain for north-western areas possible by the end of the period.

Tuesday 15 Jun - Tuesday 29 Jun

Confidence is typically low for this period, but high pressure looks to be most likely with generally fine and dry conditions for most. However, the risk of some showers developing through the days is still possible with perhaps cloudier conditions and outbreaks of rain across the far west at times. Temperatures are likely to be above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Monday 7 Jun - Wednesday 16 Jun

Rather mixed conditions are expected at the start of the period, with a good deal of fine and dry weather around, although outbreaks of rain and isolated showers are still possible, most likely affecting northern and western areas. Otherwise, temperatures will trend towards the warmer side of average. Into the latter half of the period, more settled and dry conditions are likely overall, though perhaps accompanied by the risk of some showers developing each day and longer spells of rain occurring at times. There is an increasing chance of more unsettled conditions with wind and rain for northwestern areas by the end of the period and cloudier conditions in the far west at times. Temperatures are likely to remain average to warmer than average.

Wednesday 16 Jun - Wednesday 30 Jun

Confidence is typically low for this period, but high pressure looks to be most likely with generally fine and dry conditions for most. However, the risk of some showers developing through the days is still possible with perhaps cloudier conditions and outbreaks of rain across the far west at times. Temperatures are likely to be average or above.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A chance of showers mixed with warm sunshine.

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Wednesday 2 June to – Sunday 6 June

Warm and dry through mid-June. Wetter later.

A low will drift in from the south around midweek and bring some heavy or thundery showers to southern areas. High pressure building in from the southwest towards the end of the working week will tend to bring some settled and drier weather. However, there is still a chance of showers or thunderstorms in eastern areas. High pressure building in the North Sea this weekend will see a lot of sunshine, but rain chances will persist in western areas. Temperatures staying above average, but it will be slightly less warm towards the start of the weekend.

Monday 7 June to – Sunday 13 June

Generally warm and dry with a chance of showers.

Early June is likely to be marked by some changeable weather patterns for northern Europe as high pressure to the west battles with low pressure to the east. The best signals for cool, wet weather are east of us in Poland and the Balkans. But the best signals for warmer, drier weather is south of us in Spain and France. The UK is caught up between the two weather systems, but there are good signals that high pressure will tend to dominate through the middle of June. This will push lows far enough off to the east to bring a lot of settled weather.

With high pressure overhead or just east of us, warmer air from the sub-tropical Atlantic will be able to feed into the UK more frequently. There are no strong signals for any northerly winds bringing in fresher Atlantic air. This means temperatures will tend to stay above average, although we may see a brief cool spell around the middle of the week as high pressure builds in. The best chances for rain throughout the week will be in northern parts of Scotland, which may see occasional weather fronts. In addition, for the first few days of the week there is a chance of afternoon heavy or thundery showers for Wales and England.

Although many areas will stay dry with plenty of sunny spells. Confidence overall is high for this week on the large-scale weather pattern. However, there is a lot of uncertainty on the specifics in the day-to-day weather and as such the confidence in the whole forecast is medium. Rain chances may increase in southern areas if high pressure is a little too far to the north, and there is roughly a 25% chance of this developing.

Monday 14 June to – Tuesday 27 July

Drier in mid-June but more unsettled later.

The second half of June is expected to keep the large-scale weather pattern in place with more influential high pressure through the middle of the month gradually giving way to lower pressure later. The best chances for some summer-like dry, sunny, and warm weather will be around mid-June when high pressure lingers over the British Isles and brings a lot of sunshine and calm winds. High pressure overhead would also tend to suppress the chances of afternoon showers, so this week will likely be a bit drier than the previous one. Later in June there are still some compelling signals for high pressure to decline and shift away to the east, allowing the storm track to return from Iceland into the UK.

This is a wetter and colder pattern with lows bringing in the North Atlantic air along with some occasional weather fronts. High pressure to the southwest will likely reach in and give us some drier and more settled days. The much cooler Arctic air is not except to reach this far south, so even though it will be cooler than normal it won't be nearly as cool as May turned out to be and likely still feel like summer. Confidence is medium on the forecast of lingering high pressure slowly giving way to cooler, unsettled weather in late June. Warmer weather looks more likely for the first half of the month, with some cooler air later. There is roughly a 35% chance that high pressure lingers overhead and keeps things dry and warmer than normal. There is a growing risk of hurricanes far away in the tropical Atlantic later in June which may disrupt things.

Further ahead

We will take our first look into early July as well as try to pin down a return of some cooler, wetter weather later in June.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Tuesday 8 Jun - Thursday 17 Jun

A settled pattern with high pressure dominating will be in place at the beginning of next week, bringing sunny spells and mainly light winds, although the winds could strengthen in the far northwest for a time. Temperature will trend towards the warmer side of the average. There will however be a risk of isolated showers on most days, and perhaps even the odd heavy one with thunder. This weather pattern is expected to continue through much of the period, although a developing northwest/southeast split becomes increasingly likely, with more unsettled conditions possible in northwest of the country and southeastern areas more likely to remain settled. Temperatures are expected to remain warmer than the average for the time of year.

Thursday 17 Jun - Thursday 1 Jul

Confidence is typically low for this outlook, but high pressure looks to be most likely with generally fine and dry conditions for most. However, the risk of some showers developing through the days is still possible with perhaps cloudier conditions and outbreaks of rain across the far west at times. Temperatures are likely to be above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

I hope they’re on to something for late June there. Because “cloudier conditions and outbreaks of rain across the far West at times” = plume.

Digging through the euphemisms:

- “Cloudier and cooler across the North and West” = decent summer ridging weather for the South and East. Westerly winds.

- “cooler and cloudier in the SE and East facing coasts” = Northerly blocking

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Wednesday 9 Jun - Friday 18 Jun

Rather mixed conditions are expected at the start of the period, with a good deal of fine and dry weather around, although equally cloudier conditions and scattered showers, which could be heavy and possibly thundery towards the southeast of the country. Otherwise, temperatures will trend towards the warmer side of average. Towards the end of the period, a trend towards more settled and dry conditions overall, however this accompanied by a risk of some showers and prolonged spells of rain across the far north. Low cloud and sea fog are also likely to develop, throughout this period and affect northern and eastern coastlines. Temperatures are likely to remain average to warmer than average with an increased risk of hot conditions.

Friday 18 Jun - Friday 2 Jul

A good deal of fine and dry weather across much of the UK for the end of June, although there could be a few showers in places and perhaps some rain in the far north at times. Temperatures are likely to be above average. By the end of June and into early July, conditions will probably become more unsettled with an increasing chance of rain spreading across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Thursday 10 Jun - Saturday 19 Jun

Rather mixed conditions are expected at the start of the period, with a good deal of fine and dry weather around, although equally cloudier conditions and scattered showers, which could be heavy and possibly thundery towards the southeast of the country. Otherwise, temperatures will trend towards the warmer side of average. Towards the end of the period, a trend towards more settled and dry conditions overall, however this accompanied by a risk of some showers and prolonged spells of rain across the far north. Low cloud and sea fog are also likely to develop, throughout this period and affect northern and eastern coastlines. Temperatures are likely to remain average to warmer than average with an increased risk of hot conditions.

Friday 18 Jun - Friday 2 Jul

A good deal of fine and dry weather across much of the UK for the end of June, although there could be a few showers in places and perhaps some rain in the far north at times. Temperatures are likely to be above average. By the end of June and into early July, conditions will probably become more unsettled with an increasing chance of rain spreading across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 12 Jun - Monday 21 Jun

High pressure is likely to bring a lot of dry and settled weather across the country at first. The exception is across the far northwest where occasional spells of cloud and rain accompanied by stronger winds are likely. Temperatures here are expected to be near normal but elsewhere it is expected to be very warm perhaps hot for a time. As we head into the second half of next week, there are signs that less settled conditions could extend to other parts of the country with temperatures returning to nearer normal by the end of the week. This change is likely to be accompanied by a spell of rain, potentially thundery in places, and some stronger winds than of late.

Monday 21 Jun - Monday 5 Jul

A good deal of fine and dry weather across much of the UK for the end of June, although there could be a few showers in places and perhaps some rain in the far north at times. Temperatures are likely to be above average. By the end of June and into early July, conditions will probably become more unsettled with an increasing chance of rain spreading across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Sunday 13 Jun - Tuesday 22 Jun

High pressure across the majority of the UK looks to bring a lot of dry and settled weather at first. However, in the far north outside of the influence of this, there will be spells of cloudy, windy and wet weather at times. There will be a risk of showers in the south, especially mid-next week, which could even culminate in a thundery breakdown. Temperatures are expected to be very warm under the high, perhaps hot for a time in the south east, but look to remain average in the far north. Into the latter half of this period, there are signs that less settled conditions could push in from the north west to other parts of the country. Temperatures returning to nearer normal by the end of the week.

Wednesday 23 Jun - Wednesday 7 Jul

A good deal of fine and dry weather across much of the UK towards the end of June, although there could be a few showers in places and perhaps some rain in the far north at times. Temperatures are likely to be above average, and warm in the south. By the end of June and into early July, conditions will probably become more unsettled with an increasing chance of rain spreading across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Monday 14 Jun - Wednesday 23 Jun

High pressure across the majority of the UK looks to bring a lot of dry and settled weather at first. However, in the far north outside of the influence of this, there will be spells of cloudy, windy and wet weather at times. There will be a risk of showers in the south, especially mid-next week, which could even culminate in a thundery breakdown. Temperatures are expected to be very warm under the high, perhaps hot for a time in the south east, but look to remain average in the far north. Into the latter half of this period, there are signs that less settled conditions could push in from the north west to other parts of the country. Temperatures returning to nearer normal by the end of the week.

Thursday 24 Jun - Thursday 8 Jul

A good deal of fine and dry weather across much of the UK towards the end of June, although there could be a few showers in places and perhaps some rain in the far north at times. Temperatures are likely to be above average, and warm in the south. By the end of June and into early July, conditions will probably become more unsettled with an increasing chance of rain spreading across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Wednesday 16 Jun - Friday 25 Jun

Likely remaining warm, perhaps very warm, and humid towards the southeast at first with the risk of a few thunderstorms developing from the south later Wednesday into Thursday. Further north and west cloud and rain will bring fresher conditions during Wednesday. The fresher air is then likely to spread to the rest of the country bringing a change to widely cooler more changeable conditions for the rest of the week, with a low risk of warm and humid air returning to the far southeast at times. Through this period there is reasonable agreement for an Atlantic influence to bring occasional spells of rain or showers interspersed with drier and sunnier conditions. Overall, temperatures are likely to be close to, or perhaps slightly below average.

Friday 25 Jun - Friday 9 Jul

A good deal of fine and dry weather across much of the UK towards the end of June, although there could be a few showers in places and perhaps some rain in the far north at times. Temperatures are likely to be above average, and warm in the south. By the end of June and into early July, conditions will probably become more unsettled with an increasing chance of rain spreading across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Thursday 17 Jun - Saturday 26 Jun

Likely remaining warm, perhaps very warm and humid towards the southeast at first with the risk of thundery showers across central and south-eastern areas. Elsewhere sunny spells and fresher, with some rain and thicker cloud towards the north and west at times. The fresher air is then likely to gradually spread to the rest of the country bringing a change to widely cooler more changeable conditions towards the end of the week, with a low risk of warm and humid air returning to the far southeast at times. This will likely bring occasional spells of rain or showers interspersed with drier and sunnier conditions. Overall, temperatures will likely average out to be close to normal.

Sunday 27 Jun - Sunday 11 Jul

Low confidence through this period due to mixed and weak signals. However, a west to south-westerly direction is most likely. This would favour occasional spells of warm to very warm conditions, with hot conditions probable at times towards the southeast. This may bring the possibility of thunderstorms in the east to southeast. Overall, rainfall amounts will likely be close to average for the time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Warnings out for thunderstorms Weds-Fri now for much of England and a chunk of Wales. It's unusual for warnings to be issued so far out - methinks they're expecting an amber out of this should things continue to look as they are.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-06-16&id=e5d93992-f850-42e3-b720-2c18602d92c4&details

 

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Warnings out for thunderstorms Weds-Fri now for much of England and a chunk of Wales. It's unusual for warnings to be issued so far out - methinks they're expecting an amber out of this should things continue to look as they are.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-06-16&id=e5d93992-f850-42e3-b720-2c18602d92c4&details

 

Looking at the risk matrix you're correct Retron. The only thing preventing an Amber at present is the likelihood of the event happening. It will be interesting to see how quickly it firms up over the next couple of days.

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