Not looking good at all there. Hope I'm wrong - but looking like a 2007 or 2012 summer coming up.

Early days, but it's the background signals that are concerning. There is little to no sign of the Azores High ridging our way, and a huge propensity for Northern blocking. Signs are not good, and nature always balances out long dry spells in this country.

I think that process begins soon, but time for it to change for the better come the summer.

That said, Gavs excellent summer roundups are not showing a lot of promise so far.

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Not looking good at all there. Hope I'm wrong - but looking like a 2007 or 2012 summer coming up.

 

Its April!. Writing off summer now is the equivalent of writing of winter in October. 

Also watch out for an Azores push in the 10-15  days time

 

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Not looking good at all there. Hope I'm wrong - but looking like a 2007 or 2012 summer coming up.

In fairness, often it is possible to write off winter early. When there is a monster PV and relentless Zonality, you can safely write off a good portion of winter.

Similarly, if there is intense northern blocking and little to no sign of an Azores High, you can, at the very least, surmise how the summer may look.

I certainly wouldn't write off summer in April, but you can get early indication, and those early indications don't look brilliant to say the least.

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'Oak before Ash, in for a splash

Ash before Oak, in for a soak'

For what it is worth. Oak trees are still not out in London by late April.  The first time I have seen that in as long as I can remember.  However, the Ash trees are starting to leaf up.

 

There is always some element of truth in the old sayings.

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Back to the models. The GFS 6Z is about as bad as it can possibly be. Ridiculously cold and extremely unsettled with even a northeasterly gale and snow about in early May. Cannot get worse from this. Only way is up. Shockingly awful.

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Back to the models. The GFS 6Z is about as bad as it can possibly be. Ridiculously cold and extremely unsettled with even a northeasterly gale and snow about in early May. Cannot get worse from this. Only way is up. Shockingly awful.

Given the flabby nature of any air movements atm I think the chances of 'cannot get worse than this' weather (bar a worsening drought down here in the SW) being nailed on are minimal.

I'll take copies of both these post to see who was right

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We definitely look stuck in a rut. The 12z isn't looking any better and the 6z gefs mean for my location is at or below -5c for 5-6 days from the 28th. The Inverness snow row is climbing too, double figures most days from the 28th. Crazy for the time of year! Great synoptics if it was winter, unwelcome now. Known our luck the Azores high will return from its holiday in time for December 😄

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Back to the models. The GFS 6Z is about as bad as it can possibly be. Ridiculously cold and extremely unsettled with even a northeasterly gale and snow about in early May. Cannot get worse from this. Only way is up. Shockingly awful.

The coldness cannot last forever so sooner than later temperatures must go upward as the sun now almost high as end of July position.  Been a  wasted dry HP cold settled weather so hope we see some warmth sooner and once it come to stay warm to hot all the way to October to make for it.

 

 

Its April!. Writing off summer now is the equivalent of writing of winter in October. 

Also watch out for an Azores push in the 10-15  days time

 

 

Indeed. Utterly ludicrous nonsense from the usual suspects. You might just as well argue Nature is “repaying her debt” from the extremely wet December we endured. 

Summer will probably be fine. Expect a NW/SE split and a very average set up. 

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I’d been reassuring myself that spring is like 2013 therefore there’s still hope. But looking at the archives the Synoptics were very different: zonal north westerlies. No greenland high. That GH had better disappear soon or else.

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Back to the models. The GFS 6Z is about as bad as it can possibly be. Ridiculously cold and extremely unsettled with even a northeasterly gale and snow about in early May. Cannot get worse from this. Only way is up. Shockingly awful.

Will probably be fine in the strong sunshine in the SE. 

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16-dayer - Spain beginning to show some warmth but any real heat is stil way out in the Near East, w europe only slowly, slowly, getting rid of its cold pool. The band of rain lying fromSpain to Ukraine in week 1 moves north to lie from Ireland to the Baltic and on into Russia in week2!(but SE England still on the edge of this)

GFS - small trough moving S and re-introducing NE -lies Wed 28th; repeat performance starting with small LP NW of Ireland Sun 2nd but in this case deepening more 995mb N Sea Thu 6th. and hanging around the SE until Tue 11th with general NE-ly flow. Final fame Wed 12th shows Azores high trying to move in.

FAX makes the current LP look more potent Wed 28th and a more direct N-ly to follow

GEFS -staying cool, even cold around Fri30th, small amounts of rain 30th onwards (Scotland & NE England a bit earlier and a bit later but not the 30th itself) but no clear pattern. 

ECM (sorry, mostly yesterday's 12z) also makes more of the 2nd LP but presents it  as more of an Atlantic feature linking with an LP mid-Atlantic and becomes 975mb Orkney Wed 5th with W-lies for most of UK LATER EDIT FOR 0Z still linked to the Atlantic at that time but less deep and staying W of Ireland

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I’d been reassuring myself that spring is like 2013 therefore there’s still hope. But looking at the archives the Synoptics were very different: zonal north westerlies. No greenland high. That GH had better disappear soon or else.

I think it depends what part of the spring of 2013 one is talking about.

IIRC, there was a great deal of northern blocking in place in the early part of that spring; March 2013 was one of the coldest Marchs we have experienced in a long time. That said, I think that blocking began to decline somewhat as we went through April and a more normal pattern began to resume. I do seem to recall one or two fairly cool days in the early part of that May also, to be fair.

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I think it depends what part of the spring of 2013 one is talking about.

IIRC, there was a great deal of northern blocking in place in the early part of that spring; March 2013 was one of the coldest Marchs we have experienced in a long time. That said, I think that blocking began to decline somewhat as we went through April and a more normal pattern began to resume. I do seem to recall one or two fairly cool days in the early part of that May also, to be fair.

In a general sense, 2013 didn't really warm up until June here. The cold North Sea was still causing issues across the South-East well into summer. Indeed I recall visiting my daughter in Colchester in July that year where 27'c was reached but on going to the coast at Frinton it was like a different world in a strong onshore breeze and 13'c.

The current ensembles remain bleak if you want warmth. Obviously if you get sunny weather it will at least "feel" warm in any shelter

The current ensembles remain bleak if you want warmth. Obviously if you get sunny weather it will at least "feel" warm in any shelter

Unfortunately, it's looking like we're going to lose the sunshine too. Looking increasingly unsettled for the next fortnight, particularly in southern parts. Cool or even very cool too. 

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Unfortunately, it's looking like we're going to lose the sunshine too. Looking increasingly unsettled for the next fortnight, particularly in southern parts. Cool or even very cool too. 

Was always likely to happen. This country is in a location where rainfall shortages are always made up. I feel that we will be in a completely different boat in 2 weeks' time and be hoping that the rain stops, and that it warms up. Looking exceptionally cool and pretty unsettled for at least the next 2 to 3 weeks.

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Was always likely to happen. This country is in a location where rainfall shortages are always made up. I feel that we will be in a completely different boat in 2 weeks' time and be hoping that the rain stops, and that it warms up. Looking exceptionally cool and pretty unsettled for at least the next 2 to 3 weeks.

Really? What sort of rain totals are you forecasting for the SE?

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I don't see that much rain here in the S.E. And we are desperate with just about 2mm in the last six weeks. I hope we get a good soaking in early May before summer proper starts!

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I don't see that much rain here in the S.E. And we are desperate with just about 2mm in the last six weeks. I hope we get a good soaking in early May before summer proper starts!

 

Indeed. There has been nothing of any note down here for weeks on end. Nor is there much modelled. 

 

Notable that the very same member who is doom mongering about summer in April did exactly the same last year – and ended up with egg on his face. 

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Was always likely to happen. This country is in a location where rainfall shortages are always made up. I feel that we will be in a completely different boat in 2 weeks' time and be hoping that the rain stops, and that it warms up. Looking exceptionally cool and pretty unsettled for at least the next 2 to 3 weeks.

Dry periods & wet periods have always been a part of our climate, although you can think of this as the weather 'paying it's debt'. However we are hardly unusual in being in a location where any rainfall shortages are always' made up.' If they weren't then climates arond the world  would have changed permanently and this hasn't happened - well not yet anyway. Take the Australian outback for example, you can have several years of drought followed by several years of rains and even flooding. The only difference with the UK is the timescale is years not months but the principle is the same, the overal climate is unchanged.

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