I would like to see the source for that statistic as it seems inaccurate based on the data series.(Early 1980s would be more in line with a halving or even near halving). The data will be noteworthy enough without such spin IMO.

I'm always critical of data presented to fit an agenda

There is a danger, depending on what is used, that an argument becomes diluted as a result

The outlandish claims of all  sea ice disappearing that were made in the 1990's smacked of alarmism and undermines the real slower changes that are taking place

I prefer a scientific approach to all arguments as that is the only way to get to the truth

Pretty much as per the BEEB forecast yesterday , a chilly flow across us 7-8 days out 

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Pretty much as per the BEEB forecast yesterday , a chilly flow across us 7-8 days out 

Thankfully not too much of an issue if HP maintains an influence. The sunny skies recently have been very pleasant

 

Thankfully not too much of an issue if HP maintains an influence. The sunny skies recently have been very pleasant

They have indeed Dave but would be nice if the winds can change direction to give us an increase in temps 

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They have indeed Dave but would be nice if the winds can change direction to give us an increase in temps 

I have been pleasantly surprised how nice it has felt in the sun even with temps only in the mid teens. Been plenty warm enough to have lunch outdoors in a T-shirt these last few days, although you do feel the chill in the shade.

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Latest GFS run is horrifically dry. I hate it when it doesn't rain for ages.

Latest GFS run is horrifically dry. I hate it when it doesn't rain for ages.

Just one stress after another for the garden.  Cold winter and spring kills plants and suppresses growth and now too dry.  I can take the sacrifice for snow but some warm weather with some rain would be appreciated now. 

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Reasonable signal for warmer and wetter conditions in May. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see some downpours in the southern half of the UK with the warmest and driest conditions in the north.

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Reasonable signal for warmer and wetter conditions in May. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see some downpours in the southern half of the UK with the warmest and driest conditions in the north.

Alexis Green, the BBC South weather presenter, was tempted into going beyond her brief and said that there 'might' be rain in 10 days' time.

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I would like to see the source for that statistic as it seems inaccurate based on the data series.(Early 1980s would be more in line with a halving or even near halving). The data will be noteworthy enough without such spin IMO.

Hi Doc, just watch the trio of documentaries about Greta Thunberg, the stats are all from there, so the source was the BBC. The reduction was substantial, (not sure it reached exactly 50%) but just took us back to 2006 output levels: That was a key fact of the programmes and very sobering.

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What a phenomenal spell of weather this is turning into!!!! Absolutely bone dry for days and weeks on end. A strong sun. Loads of sunshine. Absolutely amazing!!! The only thing that’s missing is the heat and humidity. It’s April. It will come. It does every single summer down here at some stage. 

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What a phenomenal spell of weather this is turning into!!!! Absolutely bone dry for days and weeks on end. A strong sun. Loads of sunshine. Absolutely amazing!!! The only thing that’s missing is the heat and humidity. It’s April. It will come. It does every single summer down here at some stage. 

But it doesn't suit everyone. I was talking to a shepherd on the Downs on Monday and he was really worried about the lack of growth of grass to feed his ewes and hence their lambs. I dare say arable farmers have similar concerns.

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16-dayer - Gradual is the name of the warm-up but signs of some definite warmth over France in week2 just about creeping into S England. Still plenty of below average temps around the Baltic states and Finland so beware any easterlies if they develop! Remaining dry for both weeks; the patch of rain in the Channel noted previously for week 2 is  now placed over mid-France.

GFS - current HP in place until Tue 27th when it re-positions over Greenland (1065mb?!) allowing in NE-lies for a couple of days. Then LP SW of Iceland moves to W Ireland Sat 1st (no surprise - it's BH weekend), eventually intensifying over Scotland 965mb Fri 7th, with troughs generally over the UK in that week (poor match to the above in respect of rainfall)

GEFS - temps near norm to Tue 27th then most runs dip over the following two days to around 6C below norm. A steady improvement to norm by Mon 3rd , even above in Scotland. Rain starts appearing from 27th, small amounts at first, a few runs with big totals in the S, more continuous but less extreme in N and Scotland. 

ECM - similar but with some tweaks to start with - E-lies rather than NE-lies after Tue 27th. Later on a bigger difference with LP Sat 1st moving S to Biscay, and a suggestion that any LP over Scotland will derive from a new LP moving across from Iceland 

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But it doesn't suit everyone. I was talking to a shepherd on the Downs on Monday and he was really worried about the lack of growth of grass to feed his ewes and hence their lambs. I dare say arable farmers have similar concerns.

 

Very true, as with all types. Like when a poster gets animated about cold air aloft in April that delivers not cold-feeling air at 2m, desperately hanging on to the dregs of winter. Each to their own and all that. 

a side note - I don’t know what the Saharan dust situation is, but my car certainly has a film of it on there that wasn’t there two days ago

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Yes I think this will be the pattern this year. And the ice melt will be consequentially record breaking, and that itself could ensure another cooler winter 2021/22.

Greta Thumberg’s trio of documentary programmes on the BBC is a must watch. One startling statistic was that right in the middle of lock-down, when all economies world wide were shut down, emissions of CO2 did take a noticeable and measurable drop, almost halved in fact, but all that did was take us back to 2006 in terms of emissions. 2006!!

I was hoping they might have said 1956, but if a full pandemic lockdown internationally takes us just back to 2006, we are in trouble when considering the Paris pledge of 1.5 degrees of warming.

It’s going to take more than my buying a full EV and my veggie dinner of curried cauliflower and cuscus with spinach and a curry sauce with roasted cashews. China and the USA account for 50% of emissions, and they are well behind even the UK at reducing their carbon footprint.

We need to be spending the same money as for the pandemic (arguably a symptom of climate change) on switching over the technologies to renewables, carbon capture and sustainable agriculture. Most of all - stopping any more de-afforestation internationally.

It worried me today to hear a report of a national House-builder’s planning exec saying they don't want low maintenance wild flower turf in the public open spaces on their estates because the Essex housewife likes only close mown lawn grass. If that is the true reflection of their policy and the public at large - we are defiantly doomed: We are going to fry in our own Kentucky fried fat.

Perhaps we should really Enjoy the cooler temps while you can...

A kindred spirit.

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Reasonable signal for warmer and wetter conditions in May. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see some downpours in the southern half of the UK with the warmest and driest conditions in the north.

 

May is probably the month in which that pattern is most likely.  I watch the forecasts keenly at this time of year for going hillwalking in Scotland, and mid-April to the beginning of June is the best time of year for good weather up north (and correspondingly, torrential rain from the Pennines south).  Doesn't happen every year, of course, but it has been that way many times over the years that I've been doing this.

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Very true, as with all types. Like when a poster gets animated about cold air aloft in April that delivers not cold-feeling air at 2m, desperately hanging on to the dregs of winter. Each to their own and all that. 

a side note - I don’t know what the Saharan dust situation is, but my car certainly has a film of it on there that wasn’t there two days ago.

I'm guessing that it's locally produced dust/soil from tillage operations rather than long fetch Saharan stuff.

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 I'm guessing that it's locally produced dust/soil from tillage operations rather than long fetch Saharan stuff.

 

Sodburyan dust perhaps

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May is probably the month in which that pattern is most likely.  I watch the forecasts keenly at this time of year for going hillwalking in Scotland, and mid-April to the beginning of June is the best time of year for good weather up north (and correspondingly, torrential rain from the Pennines south).  Doesn't happen every year, of course, but it has been that way many times over the years that I've been doing this.

Yes I agree.

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I'm guessing that it's locally produced dust/soil from tillage operations rather than long fetch Saharan stuff.

Or even pollen, which can resemble Sahara dust in quantity. Loads of pollen around at the moment.

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