Temperature wise, 2021 has followed a similiar path to 1966 so far. Last winter was like 1965-66, both Februarys were milder than average but still contained a colder spell.

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Met Office Hadley        5.7c       Anomaly     -1.2  Provisional to 1th

Metcheck                     5.17c     Anomaly     -2.85c

Netweather                  5.65c     Anomaly     -2.46c

Peasedown St John      5.45c     Anomaly     -2.95c. 

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Temperature wise, 2021 has followed a similiar path to 1966 so far. Last winter was like 1965-66, both Februarys were milder than average but still contained a colder spell.

Shame there's no World Cup this year....

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Met Office Hadley       5.6c      Anomaly     -1.3c provisional to 15th

Metcheck                    5.12c     Anomaly     -2.9oc

Netweather                 5.64c     Anomaly     -2.47c

Peasedown St John    5.33c      Anomaly     -3.07c.                 

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 Shame there's no World Cup this year....

1966? 1977? Let's hope it is different to both of them. Especially with many people staying in the UK. Neither of these summers were up to much. 

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1966? 1977? Let's hope it is different to both of them. Especially with many people staying in the UK. Neither of these summers were up to much. 

Unless you were an England football fan in 1966!  

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1966? 1977? Let's hope it is different to both of them. Especially with many people staying in the UK. Neither of these summers were up to much. 

Whoosh. Oh never mind.

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Coldest average minimum CET returns for 1-16 April since 1878

1917  -1.21C
1924   0.48C
2021   0.55C est.
1968   0.70C
1958   0.88C

1981-2010 mean for 1-16 April is 3.68C. So we are 3C below average.

Here is the latest April CET tracker. Looks really cold. This is based on the 0z ECM which was a cold run.

Almost every day is below average on this tracker. My CET estimate is running well below the Hadley provisional data at present. So expect a very large downward adjustment this month.

The current estimate is a final CET of 6.85C which would make this the coldest April since 1989 when the figure was 6.6C.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Coldest average minimum CET returns for 1-16 April since 1878

1917  -1.21C
1924   0.48C
2021   0.55C est.
1968   0.70C
1958   0.88C

1981-2010 mean for 1-16 April is 3.68C. So we are 3C below average.

1917 was incedible, so much lower than anything else. Looking at the reanalysis charts, very nasty indeed.

 

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1966? 1977? Let's hope it is different to both of them. Especially with many people staying in the UK. Neither of these summers were up to much. 

Ive a feeling this summer is going to be similar.Its looking like a distinctly cold year with most   months below average. We seem absolutly stuck in this present weather pattern and no end in sight.

 

1917 was incedible, so much lower than anything else. Looking at the reanalysis charts, very nasty indeed.

 

And it came after notable prolonged cold in winter and March. Given the privations of WW1 as well, people must have been getting really down, not to mention what it must have been like for those in the trenches.

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Here is the latest April CET tracker. Looks really cold. This is based on the 0z ECM which was a cold run.

Almost every day is below average on this tracker. My CET estimate is running well below the Hadley provisional data at present. So expect a very large downward adjustment this month.

The current estimate is a final CET of 6.85C which would make this the coldest April since 1989 when the figure was 6.6C.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 2

Gosh! Been a long time coming. First time April has been colder than the March before it since 2012 as well.

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Met Office Hadley          5.6c       Anomaly     -1.5c. provisional to 16th

Metcheck                       5.10c     Anomaly      -2.92c

Netweather                    5.65c     Anomaly      -2.46c

Peasedown St John      5.4c       Anomaly      -3.0c. 

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The minima are certainly exceptional.
As far as the overall CET goes I remember reading in Philip Eden's writeup of April 2012 (which I struggle to find online now sadly ) that although that month was the coldest since 1989 there were maybe 6 or 7 colder ones in the 60s, 70s and 80s.
Which is a roundabout way of saying that the run of warm to very warm April's that dominated in the 1990s, 2000s as well as much of the 10s have seriously warped our expectations of this month.
In the 70s or 80s I daresay this month would look far more ordinary

Certainly a very interesting April so far. Not only the coldest for some time but also extremely dry too - quite an unusual pairing in the summer half of the year. Personally I'm not a fan of cold months at this time of year but this one has been a lot more tolerable because of the dryness and quite a fair amount of sunshine. I'm just thankful it hasn't turned out like April 2012.

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 Whoosh. Oh never mind.

 I got the World Cup 1966 joke Col. I was just stating that in this thread, 2 years have been mentioned as similar to 2021 for temperature pattern matching. They were 1966 and 1977. Weatherwise, both of those summers were poor so I'm concerned that this year might follow the same path. 

At least both of those summers had something to cheer us up about. Perhaps this will be England's year in the Euros? But I'm not holding my breath. 

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 I got the World Cup 1966 joke Col. I was just stating that in this thread, 2 years have been mentioned as similar to 2021 for temperature pattern matching. They were 1966 and 1977. Weatherwise, both of those summers were poor so I'm concerned that this year might follow the same path. 

At least both of those summers had something to cheer us up about. Perhaps this will be England's year in the Euros? But I'm not holding my breath. 

OK, sorry for the whoosh 🙂 I'm sure a lot of people recall the awful weather of the Silver Jubilee in 1977. We went to Otley Chevin to see the beacon being lit, I think you were supossed to be able to see the other beacons in the chain as well, but fat chance of that in the rain and low cloud. Summers in the 60s were generally poor, at least by today's standards. I don't know if 1966 was poor by the stadards of the time.

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Summers in the 60s were generally poor, at least by today's standards. I don't know if 1966 was poor by the stadards of the time.

Were they?

Manchester Summer Indices

1960 217

1961 203

1962 197

1963 194

1964 197

1965 189

1966 192

1967 223

1968 215

1969 234

Summers 2010-2020

2010 191

2011 179

2012 164

2013 247

2014 236

2015 192

2016 189

2017 192

2018 272

2019 199

2020 182

 

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Were they?

Manchester Summer Indices

1960 217

1961 203

1962 197

1963 194

1964 197

1965 189

1966 192

1967 223

1968 215

1969 234

Summers 2010-2020

2010 191

2011 179

2012 164

2013 247

2014 236

2015 192

2016 189

2017 192

2018 272

2019 199

2020 182

 

That's interesting, always thought summers in the 60s weren't up to much. Perhaps I'm thinking of the 50s. Anyway, I was born in 1967 so don't remember them myself.

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