Going back to last year, April 2020 came at the start of the first COVID-19 lockdown and was one of the sunniest months of that entire year, as well as being one of our driest Aprils on record. That month wasn't quite as dry as April 2017 which was our actual driest April on record, but it was yet another April which brought us hardly anything in the way of rainfall.

Going into this month, the outlook is once again looking fairly dry but some of you might have some rainfall data to report for this month, so this is now the very place to report that all important rainfall data for this month regardless of how it all pans out in the end.

 

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Normally when I start these threads every month then within a day or so of me doing so, someone on this forum will have something to report for their area in terms of rainfall, if I am not doing so myself. However, this month is proving to be a different kettle of fish altogether.

We are now a week into this month which means that we are now almost a quarter of the way through this month.

Yet, this month's total remain at 0.0 mm at Edinburgh Gogarbank as at 10pm tonight, and 0.0 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh which means that there also hasn't been a single official rain day during this month so far at either of those stations.

Looking back at the two most recent really dry Aprils, our driest April on record was in 2017 with a total of just 3.0 mm at Edinburgh Gogarbank and 4.0 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

Then just last year, we had a total of just 4.0 mm of rain during the whole of April 2020 at Edinburgh Gogarbank along with 4.2 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

Even with that though, this is the first time since I joined this forum back in 2016, that we have gone through the whole of the first week of any month without any recorded rainfall at any of my three local stations and from what I have written above, it is easy to see that this is increasingly becoming a month where it just never rain here any more.

Looking at the outlook, we have a weather system moving in over the next day or so, but this is expected to be very weak and may not provided any measurable rainfall here. Beyond that, there might be a few wintry showers around but we are well sheltered from the air mass and so, it is very difficult at the moment to just see where our next measurable rainfall is going to come from.

I know that this is a thread for reporting actual rainfall totals, but it can also be used as a means of showing whether or not, rainfall is likely in your area in terms of the overall model output as I have shown on many occasions.

On that note, perhaps it would be useful if the purpose of this thread could be extended so that in addition to reporting any rainfall in your area, we might also get an insight from the various experts on this forum about why this month in particular, ends up being so dry so often (i.e. what is it about April in particular, which makes it so prone to being so dry), what is the actual cause of that and, why that is happening yet again (could the current ENSO state have something to do with that for for example) this month and the overall prospects for the rest of this month.

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Recorded my first rainfall of the month at 0.4mm

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Finally off the mark with 1.2mm

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Here in Edinburgh, we finally have some recorded rainfall for this month.

However, even this isn't really worth reporting as this only amounts to 0.8 mm at Edinburgh Gogarbank as at 8am this morning, along with just 0.4 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

Because of that, I'm not going to my usual full report on this occasion as the totals for this spring and for this year are still not much different from what I reported at the end of last month's thread.

Furthermore, this is also looking likely to be just a slight interruption to the overall April drought as we are too well sheltered here in Edinburgh to get much in the way of showery activity from this latest northerly air mass and according to the latest model output, I'm still struggling to see where our next significant rainfall is going to come from.

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We are off with .... 0.3mm.

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Up to 6.0mm now.

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O.9 mm now.

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A pathetic total of 7.2mm which beggars belief given the synoptics. Would have been looking at 3-4 times as much from a week of northerlies in the past 

Looks like we are heading towards the 15th consecutive drier than average spring before the washout conditions predictably set in during June 

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2.9mm at Swanston, Edinburgh as of 0900 GMT this morning

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2.9mm at Swanston, Edinburgh as of 0900 GMT this morning

Here in the north of Edinburgh, we don't even have that amount of rainfall and despite all of those wintry showers which have been around during recent days including today, our total rainfall for this entire month so far continues to be stuck at 0.8 mm at Edinburgh Gogarbank, and just 0.4 mm at the botanic gardens as at 7pm this evening (18:00 UTC).

There might be a few showers around during the next day or so which are forecast to turn back to rain as becomes a bit less cold. However, there is no guarantee that this will bring any measurable rainfall to here and with the outlook beyond that looking increasingly high pressure dominated once again, it is likely to get even drier still over time, if anything.

Given that we are approaching the halfway point of this month, it is now beginning to look as this month may well go down as being our driest April on record and had it not been for the wet winter which preceded this so-called "spring", I would be seriously concerned about the possibility of water shortages and/or hose pipe bans in this part of the world if we don't start to see some serious rainfall soon.

 

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There was 1.9mm on this side of Edinburgh last night John from a snow shower then heavy hail shower which left everything white

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The showers this afternoon more
or less missed us though there were some impressive cloudscapes and fleeting light hail. Very dry, so much so I've had to water some pots and damp down the dusty soil so the cat from wherever it lives doesn't poo in the beds overnight.

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There was 1.9mm on this side of Edinburgh last night John from a snow shower then heavy hail shower which left everything white

What's happening here though, is that we've seen plenty of showery activity over the course of this weekend and yet, these showers never actually come to anything here which means that the ground ends up no more than slightly damp at times and usually remaining bone dry.

If the ground gets a bit damp, that can be enough for the amount to show up as a trace on the raw SYNOP data, but this just isn't happening by enough to cause the total for any given day to be any more than that at either of two stations and if the daily totals on the raw SYNOP data are only showing a trace, this will then just show up as 0.0 mm in the data from SEPA which is where I am taking my data from.

The end result of this is that the totals for Edinburgh Gogarbank and the botanic gardens in Edinburgh are just simply refusing to budge from those very low values of less than 1 mm for both of those stations which I have just reported.

 

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1.8mm this month.

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2.8mm

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only 0.3mm of rain so far, it is bone dry out there.

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As at 8am this morning, a total of just 0.8 mm of rain has fallen at Edinburgh Gogarbank since 09:00 UTC (10am BST) yesterday morning along with 1.0 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, but even that is more than what was forecast by the ECM model in particular, and more than what I had expected.

Nevertheless, that is still not enough for me to give a full report here for this spring or this year as a whole.

That brings this month's total to 1.8 mm (3.9% of the 1981-2010 April average for Edinburgh Gogarbank) at Edinburgh Gogarbank and 1.8 mm (4.4% of the 1981-2010 April average at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh) at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

The most recent official observation day (which runs from 09:00 UTC (10am BST) yesterday morning to 09:00 UTC this morning) was only the first official rain day of this month at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, although that is enough to take the total number of rain days during this month there to 11.4% of the 1981-2010 April average for that particular station but Edinburgh Gogarbank has still not had a single official rain day during this month so far as at 8am this morning.

Normally at this time of any month, I would be counting down the amount of rain or number of rain days which are required for the month to be wetter than average overall.

However, there is virtually no chance of that happening at either of those two stations during this month either in terms of the actual rainfall amounts, or in terms of the number of official rain days as the immediate outlook in particular, is still very high pressure dominated and very dry as a result.

Instead of that, I will add that at least another 1.4 mm of rain still needs to fall at Edinburgh Gogarbank between now and the end of this month if this month is not to go down as being the driest April on record at Edinburgh Gogarbank whilst at least another 2.4 mm of rain still needs to fall at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh between now and the end of this month if this month is not to go down as being the driest April on record at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh as at 8am this morning.

There is some model output which is suggesting that high pressure is likely to be around for the rest of this month. If that happens, there is the possibility that we might not actually get any more during this month and that would result in this month being our driest April on record at both of those stations.

However, a growing number of models are suggesting that the very end of this month in particular could be more unsettled. If that happens, the chances of this month being the driest April on record at one or both of those stations will be very slim but regardless of what actually happens during the rest of this month, this is still going to down as yet another exceptionally dry April, just like the same month during last year.

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2.3mm fell between 0900GMT yesterday and 0900GMT this morning at Swanston (south Edinburgh) This brings the monthly total here to 5.5mm

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Last April was drier. 4.2mm at Swanston for the whole month!

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