Cold weather still retreating but gradually and now less rain than previously forecast (not  the same as none!)http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

GFS - current HP gradually declining and moving off to SW allowing some weak troughs around the UK before deep LP develops 965 mb Rockall Wed 10th with all of UK in its (rather cold) circulation. HP slowly moving in from the SW to be over UK 1030mb Wed 17th and staying around though retrogressing a little.

GEFS - temps after today a little below average  to Sat 13th (perhaps one mild day Thu 11th) and then much less certain than yesterday, the mean near norm concealing a wide range of outcomes (both op & control are cold outliers esp in N Sun 14th). Rain mostly Wed 10th - Mon 15th.

ECM - similar to GFS but at end of run Sat 13th delays the approach of HP from the SW

 

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Anyone interested in some transient, Spring slush. Thought not.

I'm interested in knowing what the weather is going to be, no matter what it is, as I don't have a predetermined agenda of what I want to happen. (Except when we've had an excessive amount of rain and I'd like a break from it )

That's why I'm still reading this thread nearly as much now as I have all winter.  And as a previous poster commented (I think it ws B J Blake) at this time of year the weather can be interestingly changeable.

 

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I'm interested in knowing what the weather is going to be, no matter what it is, as I don't have a predetermined agenda of what I want to happen. (Except when we've had an excessive amount of rain and I'd like a break from it )

That's why I'm still reading this thread nearly as much now as I have all winter.  And as a previous poster commented (I think it ws B J Blake) at this time of year the weather can be interestingly changeable.

 

  Me too!

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I'm interested in knowing what the weather is going to be, no matter what it is, as I don't have a predetermined agenda of what I want to happen. (Except when we've had an excessive amount of rain and I'd like a break from it )

That's why I'm still reading this thread nearly as much now as I have all winter.  And as a previous poster commented (I think it ws B J Blake) at this time of year the weather can be interestingly changeable.

 

Guess most people don’t feel the same way. 😂

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The weather can be changeable and interesting at this time of the year. Sadly at the minute it is neither.

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I don't think I like the GFS Para any more.   That seem to like showing wild stormy scenarios while the "classic" GFS (and ECM) shows more toned down versions when it comes to mobile set ups in the 7 to 10 days range.

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So the 'cold spell' this week is a bit of a nothingburger.

Still the siberian cold pool comes to rest over the central arctic in a couple of weeks time and then drifts to our side. If we can get a direct northerly it would be rather sharp.

 

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Loving the end of GFS op could feel nice and warm towards last couple of weeks of March.

Jetstream  - the current northern loop around Iceland is breaking up in favour of a major blast from the west Tue 9th aimed at the UK but weakening and looping to the north by Sat 13th. After a spell in which this N branch competes with a S branch through the Med (best shown on Wed 17th) it looks as if the N branch will win and run close to Scotland Sat 20th.

GFS - curret HP doing its best to persist but Wed 10th deep LP 955 mb Shetland, strong W-ly for a few days before new HP 1035mb S Ireland Mon 15th, drifting around to end of run (but mostly positioned to W so some cold air running down the N Sea)

GEFS - mild peak Wed 10th and more generally mild Mon 15th - Fri 19th but on the cool side in between (and dropping away after the 19th, also more variability in NE). Dry at first, then some rain mostly Tue 9th - Sun 14th

ECM - like GFS but slower to develop HP with back-edge N-lies still there Sun 14th.

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I'm liking those lighter greens in the 16 day outlook. Signs of a warm up through mid March?

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

 

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I'm liking those lighter greens in the 16 day outlook. Signs of a warm up through mid March?

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

 

Not sure I'd class means of 8 c to 10 c and a slightly below average means overall as a "warm up" (although it would be compared to today's noon temp of 5 c). 

Either or, the Atlantic is looking set to make a comeback next week with gales for many now looking likely. This Autumn isn't quite done with us just yet, but March is usually a changeable month in any case. 

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Not sure I'd class means of 8 c to 10 c and a slightly below average means overall as a "warm up" (although it would be compared to today's noon temp of 5 c). 

Either or, the Atlantic is looking set to make a comeback next week with gales for many now looking likely. This Autumn isn't quite done with us just yet, but March is usually a changeable month in any case. 

Agreed. The uppers often don't reflect the surface in March. Despite much colder uppers , tomorrow may be warmer here! Anyway, a SW influence will cause a rise even if it's crap!

Not sure I'd class means of 8 c to 10 c and a slightly below average means overall as a "warm up" (although it would be compared to today's noon temp of 5 c). 

The anomaly is for the first 8 days only. I was looking at the period from March 12 onwards. A mean of 8 to 10C is more like what you'd expect in mid-April so that sounds good to me. Anyway, those charts change daily so it will probably be showing an Arctic blast by tomorrow 

 

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The anomaly is for the first 8 days only. I was looking at the period from March 12 onwards. A mean of 8 to 10C is more like what you'd expect in mid-April so that sounds good to me. Anyway, those charts change daily so it will probably be showing an Arctic blast by tomorrow 

 

10c is average for March.

ECM = close to a late suprise

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10c is average for March.

Mean maxima yes, but not daily means 

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16-dayer continues to show a slow warm-up for UK and Europe though the area is currently still a little below average temp (and a patch from Murmansk to Moscow still has a very cold pool). Rainfall pattern mostly Atlantic stuff, W coast of UK getting a regular dousing though later the wet area extends into France and Germany.

GFS - HP over UK dissipates over the next few days and a deep LP forms off SE Iceland 955mb Thu 11th with marked trough extending S to UK. There follows a period of mostly W-ly flow, but when LPs appear in this flow they also extend troughs well S-wards (Tue 16th, Sat 20th)

GEFS has temps trundling on a little below average with a mild spike Thu 11th; perhaps a little milder after Wed 16th but less agreement on this than yesterday with both op and control being milder than mean to start with and colder later, esp noticeable in SE.  Less rain than forecast yesterday (except NW Scotland still plain wet), but more continual Wed 10th onwards.

ECM - similar to GFS but keeps pressure higher in the S so on Thu 11th trough does not extend S-wards but there are extensive W-ly gales instead.

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Milder but stormy for a while from mid week. The BBC  last night showed a LARGE depression covering almost all the Atlantc on Wed 10th.

GFS has a more localised but deep depression 955mb Rockall Wed 10th with a secondary moving up rapidly on a SW-ly track to NW Scotland Thu 11th and widespread gales (MetO has the worst of the gales on Wed) . Then W-lies for a while but HP back 1030 mb Tue 16th Ireland moving NE and inducing a S-ly flow becoming SE-ly by Mon 22nd

GEFS much as yesterday, a little below average temps for March until Mon 15th (brief mild blip on Wed 10th) then mild for a few days before uncertainty sets in; though most runs are distributed about the norm at end of run Mon 22nd, the control has a fit of pessimism and finishes 10C below norm as an outlier! Most rain Wed 10th - Mon 15th, not a lot in the SE; and some runs  continue to show small amounts esp in NW despite the HP above. 

ECM matches GFS in the development of a more localised LP Wed 10th but fails to clear it as quickly and has N-lies lingering Tue 16th as the foregoing W-lies deposit a new LP over Germany

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Really underwhelming March so far and by the looks of it another 10 days or so of poor cool weather to come. Hopefully some Spring warmth will appear soon.

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Really underwhelming March so far and by the looks of it another 10 days or so of poor cool weather to come. Hopefully some Spring warmth will appear soon.

Yes, I’d definitely call it underwhelming!  Grey skies with very little sun and chilly all week, but at least it’s been dry!  Spring warmth would be welcomed now!  

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