ECMP again looks quite consistent with ECM, although it has more of a continental flow at 240.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfp.aspx

I wonder if the Met will keep their warnings in place?

Since the warnings have come out, ony the ICON ad GDPS have given any hint of a wintry breadown... all other move on as if the cold isnt there..

.... and that for me is the issue... is the cold air just going to cave in and be displaced so easily? its something models always struggle with, and one that usually goes down to the wire...

So for me, the extra data the MET have will be very telling by their warnings adjustment today

 

 

Biggest let-down in years.

Don't tell the people in Kent and Suffolk ! For me it has been the Beast with the Least. Last night did show what I could have won when the flow finally turned ESE for 2 hours and a few showers added a cm of snow. Highlight was a DP of -16C yesterday. Lowest temp was last night 3.9C (although tonight could beat it if we get a clear sky) . 850 hPa's start to go up for a couple of days now but not much and any precipitation might still be snow here but from Sunday it warms up for sure and if it is dry for a week or so I will be happy.

I wonder if the Met will keep their warnings in place?

 

Since the warnings have come out, ony the ICON ad GDPS have given any hint of a wintry breadown... all other move on as if the cold isnt there..

 

.... and that for me is the issue... is the cold air just going to cave in and be displaced so easily? its something models always struggle with, and one that usually goes down to the wire...

 

So for me, the extra data the MET have will be very telling by their warnings adjustment today

Update - unfortunatley its the downgrade we didnt want.. MET have already removed the weather warnings..

but then - theyve been about as accurate as Donald Trump recently

GEM looks quite springlike this morning.

Could we see a repeat of Feb 2019 with snow followed by 20C?

Not this chart as such, as the flow is still on the chillier side of south, but small adjustments with >10C 850mb temperatures could see some very nice temperatures before the month is out.

GEM looks quite springlike this morning.

 

Could we see a repeat of Feb 2019 with snow followed by 20C?

That would be wonderful

 

That would be wonderful

GFS 06z OP showing something similar at +228 - 16/17oC quite widely and 15oC for a few days after that. 

 

Don't tell the people in Kent and Suffolk ! For me it has been the Beast with the Least. Last night did show what I could have won when the flow finally turned ESE for 2 hours and a few showers added a cm of snow. Highlight was a DP of -16C yesterday. Lowest temp was last night 3.9C (although tonight could beat it if we get a clear sky) . 850 hPa's start to go up for a couple of days now but not much and any precipitation might still be snow here but from Sunday it warms up for sure and if it is dry for a week or so I will be happy.

The 'biggest letdown in years' was referring to the NYE 2000/01 breakdown. But yes, this spell has been a flop here, too.

 

That would be wonderful

Oi! It's alright for you, with your mountains of snow. I've not had my fix yet - and, until I do, winter's not allowed to be over.

Significant warm up beginning to surface on the GEFS. With the blocking patterns around it still looks like an early taste of spring or last bit of winter are both more likely than a standard Atlantic flow. 

Indeed so. It's been a fun spell here – very cold, a few centimetres of snow and plenty of tobogganing in Epping Forest (which looks beautiful right now). 

Ready to see snowdrops popping up – could be a very rapid transition to proper spring looking at the charts.

Roll on spring :)

Looks good and still on the dry side too.
Things are so late here so far, with snowdrops barely showing yet.
On the plus side the rabbit population has collapsed

Doesn't bode well for post-Brexit dietary requirements.

How are the turnips?

 

 

GFS 06z OP showing something similar at +228 - 16/17oC quite widely and 15oC for a few days after that. 

Indeed a remarkably warm GFS 6z.  The CET would rocket.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=225&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

The interesting this here is that the 2018 and 2021 easterlies were both preceded by marginal events from the west that brought a lot more snow. We had ~8cm on Jan 24th 2021 and ~15cm on December 10th (or thereabouts) 2017. 

Writing definitely on the wall now for this is slightly underwhelming cold spell. BBC 5 dayer (I know these things are about as accurate as a chocolate fireguard) has 6c for Saturday and 10c with disgusting amounts of rain and cloud for Sunday.

Winter is over. Roll on Spring.

still plenty of colder options on the GEFS. The upstream pattern still not yet resolved, though odds now strongly favour mild

 

 

GFS 06z OP showing something similar at +228 - 16/17oC quite widely and 15oC for a few days after that. 

Yes - what is it with the models of late? they all go for temps into mid teens - there is nothing to suggest this in the Met Office long range forecast or BBC - so is it the models going OTT or the Met Office and BBC not being accurate?

 

Yes - what is it with the models of late? they all go for temps into mid teens - there is nothing to suggest this in the Met Office long range forecast or BBC - so is it the models going OTT or the Met Office and BBC not being accurate?

We may see an update from them in the next day or two reflecting the milder output (If it's still there in a day or two). 

The High could easily drift to a more favourable position for cold later. \i think even if we get these warmer temps they're not likely to last, still too early in the season for persistent warmth and colder again later is equally if not more likely.