Yes - what is it with the models of late? they all go for temps into mid teens - there is nothing to suggest this in the Met Office long range forecast or BBC - so is it the models going OTT or the Met Office and BBC not being accurate?

In their defence they already said it would turn milder with only the northeast holding onto temperatures near to average. It's in the second part weeks 3&4 they are expecting the return of the cold as the high pressure system drifts westward. 

 

 

In their defence they already said it would turn milder with only the northeast holding onto temperatures near to average. It's in the second part weeks 3&4 they are expecting the return of the cold as the high pressure system drifts westward. 

Hope not.  Full on mild for me now please.

When its this cold I cannot get in the drivers side of my Landie as the door freezes solid and I need to climb over the passenger side.  Very inelegant!

Worth it for the snow but the Chilts have been snowless in this episode!

I love towing people up Cryers Hill - mainly BMW drivers!!

This winter has been consistently cold without delivering real cold.I think this is going to go on until April despite the forcast at present. Expecting Scotland and NE England to be hard hit again before spring summer weather arrives.Whether this winter is the start of a new cluster who knows .

Disappointing (for those who like snow) to see the zeros creeping back into the snow row figures on Brian's GFS ensemble graphs.  I wonder when we'll see our first run with all zeros?

Sunday looking like a complete bake in much of the country.

 

Hope not.  Full on mild for me now please.

When its this cold I cannot get in the drivers side of my Landie as the door freezes solid and I need to climb over the passenger side.  Very inelegant!

Worth it for the snow but the Chilts have been snowless in this episode!

I love towing people up Cryers Hill - mainly BMW drivers!!

Not quite true here, but as I said earlier, both this and the last Beast in 2018 were preceded by much snowier periods in the same winters.

 

Not quite true here, but as I said earlier, both this and the last Beast in 2018 were preceded by much snowier periods in the same winters.

Sorry Brian , from a South Chilterns perspective.  

In fact our biggest snowfall was last night when all surfaces were covered temporarily!

Not quite true here, but as I said earlier, both this and the last Beast in 2018 were preceded by much snowier periods in the same winters.

Interesting you say that - we had that cold rain easterly earlier in January (which dumped 2 inches of rain here). In years gone past, a degree or so colder, that would have been snow.

At least the "echo easterly", which we're still in, was cold enough for it to be snow this time!

Incidentally one of the odd things of this spell has been GFS - which has consistently underestimated temperatures. (It has -4C for now, for example, for here, whereas it's actually just -0.3C. It had a high of -2C, when it was +0.3C - and so on. I don't really know why it's doing it, but it's been persistent for several days now.)

Incidentally one of the odd things of this spell has been GFS - which has consistently underestimated temperatures. (It has -4C for now, for example, for here, whereas it's actually just -0.3C. It had a high of -2C, when it was +0.3C - and so on. I don't really know why it's doing it, but it's been persistent for several days now.)

As we were heading into this spell the GFS showed max temps here reaching -3C on 08/02 and 09/02. I suspected it was underestimating values because if had been correct we were on course for something comparable to Feb 91.  

The UKMO is different on meteociel than that on wz?

Do you (or does anyone else) know where the UKMet grib files they are using come from?  The ones on  TWO only go out to 120 and come from NCEP.

Ukmo +144

Seen worse

Not a bad chart at all..

Spring again by 20/02. 

As we were heading into this spell the GFS showed max temps here reaching -3C on 08/02 and 09/02. I suspected it was underestimating values because if had been correct we were on course for something comparable to Feb 91.  

And if it'd been right here, it'd have been something like 6 ice days in a row! In reality it's just been one ice day, although even that was by the barest minimum (-0.1C).

It's still at it too. The 12z has -3C as a high tomorrow and -2C as a high on Saturday (just before it ticks over to Sunday). I would expect 0 or 1 tomorrow and maybe 2 or 3 late on Saturday instead... but we'll see, we'll see!

 

And if it'd been right here, it'd have been something like 6 ice days in a row! In reality it's just been one ice day, although even that was by the barest minimum (-0.1C).

It's still at it too. The 12z has -3C as a high tomorrow and -2C as a high on Saturday (just before it ticks over to Sunday). I would expect 0 or 1 tomorrow and maybe 2 or 3 late on Saturday instead... but we'll see, we'll see!

I set up a GFS grib feed for a private weather company a good while ago. They asked me if I could just bump up raw data temperatures by either 1C or 2C because it "would be more accurate". I told them to get their IT guy to update it after download and processing because I didn't want it coming back to me if they subsequently had issues with data that had been adjusted in such a crude way. 

 

As we were heading into this spell the GFS showed max temps here reaching -3C on 08/02 and 09/02. I suspected it was underestimating values because if had been correct we were on course for something comparable to Feb 91.  

It bene 30 years now for not seeing very deep cold temperatures and still counting after this failed rubbish cold spell for nothing.  Glad to see warm charts for 20th Feb and hope to make a habit of occurring warmer spells in Spring to lead a hotter drier summer we need after a very wet cold winter.

GEM giving some realistic hope....hope to see more if this from the others

..Dont think the wait will be too long!