One thing seems certain is for HP to be close by so the ground can dry out a bit I don't think we can rule out a fairly quick return to more cold just yet or even no real warm up at all. My snow needs have been fulfilled now though so aside from more rain I'll take what comes.

We can dream but that would potentially be chart of the winter for many, especially eastern slopes.
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2021021018/gfs-0-144.png?18 

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Think someone broke GFSp been stuck on 96hrs since 5am. Frozen?😉

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Lovely Springlike run from the GFS this morning. 

 

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Lovely Springlike run from the GFS this morning. 

 

Yes. Perfect gardening weather down here by the looks of it. If the ground can dry out

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Yes. Perfect gardening weather down here by the looks of it. If the ground can dry out

 

Yes not just very mild but dry . In these Covid times the UK needs this as much as us weather nerds love our snow.

 

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Significant warm up beginning to surface on the GEFS. With the blocking patterns around it still looks like an early taste of spring or last bit of winter are both more likely than a standard Atlantic flow. 

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A warm up to something close to average here after the 15th but nothing that can be classed as mild. This is probably due to the fact that for here, at least, its likely we'll still be tugging in relatively continental air at times.

All the time that breeze is due south or slightly east of south we need to accept the risk that we could just as easily be thrown back into the freezer as that of an Atlantic return.

There are still a number of GEFS suggesting the cold could soon return.

Caution is the buzz word this morning for those expecting a swift warm up next week.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49909&model=gfs&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1

 

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A warm up to something close to average here after the 15th but nothing that can be classed as mild. This is probably due to the fact that for here, at least, its likely we'll still be tugging in relatively continental air at times.

All the time that breeze is due south or slightly east of south we need to accept the risk that we could just as easily be thrown back into the freezer as that of an Atlantic return.

There are still a number of GEFS suggesting the cold could soon return.

Caution is the buzz word this morning for those expecting a swift warm up next week.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49909&model=gfs&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1

 

Agreed. Heat-hounds beware The Return of The Cold

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I can see a coolish southerly influenced anticyclonic setup of sorts in a week or so (post breakdown) but not really anything like the current and recent conditions.

As long as it is not too wet (or too much easterly muck) I would be happy enough.

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Jetstream to Thu 18th running across the Atlantic quite strongly but running out of steam as it reaches the UK then a big loop developing around the UK with the flow (for the first time in a while) around the N of the UK.

GFS - as previous forecast, LP on Atlantic up against HP over Scandia with quite a strong mostly S-ly flow between (SE -ly tendency at first, SW-ly later i.e. around Wed 17th) then HP moves out of Europe and slowly moves W-wards over UK through to Fri 26th with a teaser N-ly on the following day. 

GEFS - see Brian's chart above. Similar in the N. The few cold outliers presumably because the S-ly flow could flip to SE rather than SW

ECM - The Hp stays over the near continent/Baltic and the S-ly flow is still in place Sun 21st

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I anticipate a very mild ssw flow and then another blossom killer blast just as spring arrives! Cos that’s generally what happens!

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Significant warm up beginning to surface on the GEFS. With the blocking patterns around it still looks like an early taste of spring or last bit of winter are both more likely than a standard Atlantic flow. 

Knowing our luck we will end up with P12 🤣🤣

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Lovely Springlike run from the GFS this morning. 

 

It would certainly be much more settled than recently for many areas, which would be especially good news for areas that have been affected by flooding recently.

In terms of temperatures, a lot will depend upon where exactly the HP sits, should it develop as shown. From what I can see of the GFS 00z, it looks as though it may well be quite mild for a time mid-way through the run but then temperatures then dropping a bit as the high takes up residence over the UK with signs at the end of a possible retrogression northwards.

 

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Looks like game over  , couldn't get snow in this cold set up , I think IMO that's it for the Winter IMBY 

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Looks like game over  , couldn't get snow in this cold set up , I think IMO that's it for the Winter IMBY 

Probably, but still enough uncertainty in the upstream pattern, GEM control run is still ok. Blocking to east is never going to be far away

Disappointing no doubt considering what the models were showing a few days ago

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Probably, but still enough uncertainty in the upstream pattern, GEM control run is still ok. Blocking to east is never going to be far away

Disappointing no doubt considering what the models were showing a few days ago

Can't see it , we have had some cold 850's , I doubt very much we will get a second bite , might get a fleeting blink and you miss it type scenario but any longevity I feel has gone.

Met Office using the word " MILD" more frequently now .

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Probably, but still enough uncertainty in the upstream pattern, GEM control run is still ok. Blocking to east is never going to be far away

Disappointing no doubt considering what the models were showing a few days ago

 

It's just scrabbling around for scraps, though, like rats in a bin.

At least both GFS and GEM have pulled back from a wet breakdown, both now showing at least some snow for the west as the front moves in. GFS less snowy, but a generally dry breakdown.

GEM, though, is a cracker for breakdown snow. I wouldn't say no to this happening:

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It's just scrabbling around for scraps, though, like rats in a bin.

At least both GFS and GEM have pulled back from a wet breakdown, both now showing at least some snow for the west as the front moves in. GFS less snowy, but a generally dry breakdown.

GEM, though, is a cracker for breakdown snow. I wouldn't say no to this happening:

Reminds of NYE 2000....

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Reminds of NYE 2000....

 

Biggest let-down in years.

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