The current GFS op run is a very good match for the METO longer range forecast today with high pressure to the North
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=222&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3
Martin

 

Just about to write the same thing . Easterly incoming.  216h

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Decent 12z in the longer term... and GEM sticking to its guns

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The current GFS op run is a very good match for the METO longer range forecast today with high pressure to the North
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=222&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3
Martin

Yes, it is an interesting run so far. I wonder how it will fit in the rest of the day's output.

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Another tease 12z from GFS In FI land.

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Looks like the parallel will go the same way, and is very similar to GEM. Arctic ridging looking very promising

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More Jam tomorrow anyone?

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More Jam tomorrow anyone?

I'd normally agree but it matches today's Met office update pretty well. 

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Slowly, slowly catchy monkey! 

Would be interesting to see the trend from 2015 to 2020, as we have had a lot of northern blocking lately (but mostly at the wrong time of year!)

 

Is that something you could pull from GFS data in the same way you did the 850mb temperature analysis?

 

Edit - just realised that one is only December to Feb. Is the trend reversed in summer, I wonder?

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More Jam tomorrow anyone?

The positive being the shift to N/NE heights starts at 180 not 240.

If this goes the easterly route to cold it’ll be a huge win for GEM. Expectations capped as per usual though.

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The positive being the shift to N/NE heights starts at 180 not 240.

If this goes the easterly route to cold it’ll be a huge win for GEM. Expectations capped as per usual though.

Yes, GEM has gone up in my estimation of late, and if pulls this one off then Long Live The King! (as it were).

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More Jam tomorrow anyone?

What is meant by the term JAM?

 

I'd normally agree but it matches today's Met office update pretty well. 

I'm pleased to see a couple of things. For the first time in a while both the OP and the Para are trying to sing from the same hymn sheet. They've also just boarded the same train as the GEM. Besides the finer details, I'm now looking for more from the others and that dreaded word 'consistency' before it can be taken seriously.

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What is meant by the term JAM?

Something Sweet. A good run offering something sweet but seems to be always out of reach.

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Something Sweet. A good run offering something sweet but seems to be always out of reach.

Ah thought you had misspelt JMA 

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The GFS 12z shows what can happen with subtle differences at the 120t range. The 00z was way more progressive, the 6z slowed down the progression and the 12z has halted it. As a result, heights build to our NE and bingo. 

It all hinges on the ridge from the GH which most models are forecasting to build southwards this weekend. Will it get blasted away as in ECM 00z & GFS 00z or will it be strong enough to make the incoming Atlantic low slide as GEM has been supportive of in the last few runs?  

Very much in the balance I think. More runs needed as ever and the ECM 12z will be interesting.

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Ah thought you had misspelt JMA 

Here you go https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/JMAOPEU12_24_1.png  (for tomorrow of course )

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There seems to have been quite a shift on the early stage of the 12z GFS ensembles (up here at least). After tomorrow the mean drops below -5ºC (at t850hPA) and stays there until the end of the month. For comparison, on the 00z suite the mean reached -2.4 on the 29th. Not shocking but quite notable for an ensemble mean at such shirt range.

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There seems to have been quite a shift on the early stage of the 12z GFS ensembles (up here at least). After tomorrow the mean drops below -5ºC (at t850hPA) and stays there until the end of the month. For comparison, on the 00z suite the mean reached -2.4 on the 29th. Not shocking but quite notable for an ensemble mean at such shirt range.

I assume that given the weather that would be long-sleeved rather than short?

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There seems to have been quite a shift on the early stage of the 12z GFS ensembles (up here at least). After tomorrow the mean drops below -5ºC (at t850hPA) and stays there until the end of the month. For comparison, on the 00z suite the mean reached -2.4 on the 29th. Not shocking but quite notable for an ensemble mean at such shirt range.

So colder rain than was originally thought 😃😃

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What is meant by the term JAM?

Jam tomorrow or jam to-morrow (older spelling) is an expression for a never-fulfilled promise. Some pleasant event in the future, which is never likely to materialize. It originates from Lewis Carroll's 1871 book Through the Looking Glass and What Alice Found There.

The phrase meant more in the days when school children learned Latin...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jam_tomorrow

 

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