As always, just for fun...   P29 shows what happens if pressure builds and holds to the NE: the battleground becomes the middle of the UK with rain/snow in the south but a lot of snow across the Midlands/North and into East Anglia.

This is one of those periods when you really don't envy the Met Office people who are trying to decipher the signals.

 

Sample for Monday:

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Decent 12z in the longer term... and GEM sticking to its guns

Seem GEM is leading the way and others follow suit.  Need to make sure tomorrow is been counted down and not staying at 9 to 10 days range. 

As always, just for fun...   P29 shows what happens if pressure builds and holds to the NE: the battleground becomes the middle of the UK with rain/snow in the south but a lot of snow across the Midlands/North and into East Anglia.

This is one of those periods when you really don't envy the Met Office people who are trying to decipher the signals.

 

Sample for Monday:

That one's faulty, it shows snow here. 

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There’s actually quite a lot of HLB options in the GEFS - about 80% in fact showing variations on the theme. The spaghetti plots will probably show a decent switch down from D7 on previous efforts.
Big ECM tonight. Maybe bigger than normal. Possibly the biggest for a while.
(Other hyperbole is available on request) 😎

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MJO Ph 7...maybe GEM picked this up early I don't know...but GFS op is gradually weasling it's way to a cold western and central europe..will ecm join in..and more consequently will GFS keep to its guns in subsequent runs..as always time will tell

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Jam tomorrow or jam to-morrow (older spelling) is an expression for a never-fulfilled promise. Some pleasant event in the future, which is never likely to materialize. It originates from Lewis Carroll's 1871 book Through the Looking Glass and What Alice Found There.

The phrase meant more in the days when school children learned Latin...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jam_tomorrow

 

Fascinating, I never would have guessed that. Thanks for the explanation 👍

 

 

Fascinating, I never would have guessed that. Thanks for the explanation 👍

 

Or alternatively just keep on endlessly chasing the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqV22NbR5Wc

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Will the ECM follow GEM at t96-120?

Edit - something to distract you while you wait:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3iC3SgsZO0

 

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ECM most crucial run of the season so far.

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As always, just for fun...   P29 shows what happens if pressure builds and holds to the NE: the battleground becomes the middle of the UK with rain/snow in the south but a lot of snow across the Midlands/North and into East Anglia.

This is one of those periods when you really don't envy the Met Office people who are trying to decipher the signals.

 

Sample for Monday:

This set up is reminding me of some of the winters in the 1980s. Back in the 70s and 80s there seemed to be a lot more of these cold v mild battlegrounds over the UK in the winter months. These would give snow to rain events quite frequently in the south with big snowfalls in the midlands and the north. Occasionally the cold air would win out and give us a load of snow down south too.

In those days we didn't have lots of different weather models to pore over (no sexist jokes please!).  We used to just rely on the BBC and newspaper forecasts. And of course Ceefax. Am I looking through frosty spectacles?

 

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Encouraging start to ECM, could get something out of this after all

Encouraging start to ECM, could get something out of this after all

(Sorry about the Rainbow Bunchie .)

 Anyhow, yes, its close to GEM at t96 but as that's already in FI and matters are "on a knife-edge" LOL, I would expect some big divergence at 120.  Fascinating stuff.

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I remember the days when most output stopped at +144 and ECM went to +168 only . +120 even back then was regarded as far as one should go .
Amazing fun model watching this year

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I remember the days when most output stopped at +144 and ECM went to +168 only . +120 even back then was regarded as far as one should go .
Amazing fun model watching this year

Agreed squish.  This winter (although a big snow-flop for my area thus far), has been fascinating and far more redolent of the 1970s and 1980s than for many a year.  The run up to t120 is a classic cold vs mild battle of yesteryear and makes a change from topplers, Azores Highs and Berne Winters.

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I remember the days when most output stopped at +144 and ECM went to +168 only . +120 even back then was regarded as far as one should go .
Amazing fun model watching this year

Do you remember when ECM only started at T+72?

 

Yes, it's been an interesting couple of months.  To be honest anything is better than staring at zonal charts when the only discussion points are how much rain will fall and how windy it might become.

ECM now running into guesswork territory and only developing a weak pressure rise over Scandi.

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ECM most crucial run of the season so far.

Thought we were heading in a different direction this morning but definitely yes....

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Do you remember when ECM only started at T+72?

 

Yes, it's been an interesting couple of months.  To be honest anything is better than staring at zonal charts when the only discussion points are how much rain will fall and how windy it might become.

ECM now running into guesswork territory and only developing a weak pressure rise over Scandi.

ECM has taken a step in the same direction as GFS/GEM but, can't quite do the full backtrack from it's overly progressive 00z run. Looks like a partial climbdown and hopefully it will go the whole hog tomorrow. 

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very consistent across all models GFS, ECM, ICON, CMC to see a series of stalled snowy fronts into western england from the weekend onwards. Very good agreement across all beyond Friday. Which is very unusual.

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The phrase meant more in the days when school children learned Latin...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jam_tomorrow 

......... as I did which is why I remember the days when it used to snow - not quite ad infinitum and why I go on about it ad nauseum 

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What is meant by the term JAM?

It's not an acronym. The reference is to the cynical old saying "Jam yesterday, jam tomorrow, but never jam today". So "more jam tomorrow" was, I imagine, suggesting that though the model might be forecasting something good in the future, it's done it before without it actually happening, and this is likely to be another such occasion.

My apologies to the OP if I've totally misinterpreted them!"

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