Many have seen some winter weather so far, some more than others.

What do the remaining 5 weeks have on offer then? 

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2012? Were the last 9 years a bad dream?

Looking at the 6Z GEFS, the uncertainty from Jan 30th (Saturday) is if anything greater than it was yesterday!

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Many have seen some winter weather so far, some more than others.

What do the remaining 5 weeks have on offer then? 

I imagine a bit of everything, models all over the shop, atmosphere behaving erratically due to ssw with yet another weak one possible. All interesting stuff.

 

2012? Were the last 9 years a bad dream?

 

From June 2016 it has 

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If the GEM has the synoptic solution about right then snow is a possibility in the south between Saturday evening and Monday morning.

Something will have to give soon in model land, its usually the coldest option is the one that usually gets booted out when FI is so close at hand but Im sticking my wishful thinking neck out to say that a GEM-ish solution will win out for the weekend.

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If the GEM has the synoptic solution about right then snow is a possibility in the south between Saturday evening and Monday morning.

Something will have to give soon in model land, its usually the coldest option is the one that usually gets booted out when FI is so close at hand but Im sticking my wishful thinking neck out to say that a GEM-ish solution will win out for the weekend.

Scenes like this south of M4 then - yes!? But could be cold rain.

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I remember in 1985 on a saturday in mid February , the night before the BBC forecasted rain and temps min +3 Fri night and +7 day temp and woke up to a snowstorm where everything walls etc were plastered in snow.After a wet snow start by end of day there was a foot level  snow in Hastings. Highly possible a similar situation could arise ?

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I remember in 1985 on a saturday in mid February , the night before the BBC forecasted rain and temps min +3 Fri night and +7 day temp and woke up to a snowstorm where everything walls etc were plastered in snow.After a wet snow start by end of day there was a foot level  snow in Hastings. Highly possible a similar situation could arise ?

Yes the start of half term and I was going on a school ski trip. It took us 8 hours to get from Derbyshire to Luton airport only to find our plane had landed at Gatwick due to the snow. 24 hrs later we arrived at the resort.

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Neil said:

Well according to Matt H we have strengthening MJO into P7 that analogues suggest improves our chances of cold from 7th Feb.
In my humble opinion I’ve got more chance of catching a cold at B&Q than MJO, NAO, COD etc bringing the cold 😉


You have some chance then.... if some of the social distancing around our area is anything to go by!

I really want a nice flip in the 12z ensembles please

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I really want a nice flip in the 12z ensembles please

A flip to a milder weather outlook?

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I remember in 1985 on a saturday in mid February , the night before the BBC forecasted rain and temps min +3 Fri night and +7 day temp and woke up to a snowstorm where everything walls etc were plastered in snow.After a wet snow start by end of day there was a foot level  snow in Hastings. Highly possible a similar situation could arise ?

Sadly not because weather forecasts are far more accurate now than they were 35 years ago. 

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Just 96 hours away this really wouldn't take much of a tweak to bring some surprise snowfall.

 

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Just 96 hours away this really wouldn't take much of a tweak to bring some surprise snowfall.

 

C Fawkes has just said " slight change in wind direction could give us slow "

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Just 96 hours away this really wouldn't take much of a tweak to bring some surprise snowfall.

 

The high res GFS has the rain band turning to snow on it's leading edge before it retreats away south. ICON keeps the precipitation south of the UK.

Sunday afternoon looks more interesting, albeit transient for most.  GFS and ICON both suggest snow moving slowly east followed by rain.

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The high res GFS has the rain band turning to snow on it's leading edge before it retreats away south. ICON keeps the precipitation south of the UK.

Sunday afternoon looks more interesting, albeit transient for most.  GFS and ICON both suggest snow moving slowly east followed by rain.

If it wasn’t for the quasi-permanent high over Spain we’d all be buried by now.

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If it wasn’t for the quasi-permanent high over Spain we’d all be buried by now.

 

I wonder just how far north the battleground has shifted because of that higher pressure?   So many variables involved that it's probably impossible to answer but, as you imply, it can't have helped.

But, glass half full and all that, still over a third of winter to go, plus whatever might be squeezed out of early March.

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GFS cracking run so far is the tide turning and models picking up on some height rises

The current GFS op run is a very good match for the METO longer range forecast today with high pressure to the North
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=222&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3 
Martin

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Slowly, slowly catchy monkey! 

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