Cup half full for me tonight.  ECM shows promise with some forcing down from the arctic into the beginnings of a Scandi High.

Many many more runs required to see the true development.

Hoping for the first decent dump of snow this weekend - a bit of an upgrade from the models on this but no early warnings from Meto just yet.

 

Back to the drawing board if ECM on the right track!

Not really, that is in the middle of the mild interlude modelled by GFS as well. It’s what happens after that that might (or might not) be of interest. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2021012012/ECH0-0.GIF?20-0

-12C just very close to Cyprus 2 times again on the charts so might be a trend that it will hit that region.  We never had this -12C almost touching UK coast so that would be embarrassing for here if Cyprus do get record -12C uppers over it while here stuck at -5 or -6C at best this winter.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2021012012/ECH0-0.GIF?20-0

-12C just very close to Cyprus 2 times again on the charts so might be a trend that it will hit that region.  We never had this -12C almost touching UK coast so that would be embarrassing for here if Cyprus do get record -12C uppers over it while here stuck at -5 or -6C at best this winter.

I lived in Cyprus for 2 years on the mountain at Troodos. You get heavy snow most winters and the years I was there were no exception. The first heavy snow fell on the 2nd December 92 and didn’t start to thaw until April the following year. 
The village is 5,700ft asl and Mt Olympus is 6,446ft I believe. 
Temperatures often fell to -10 at night and -6 in the day was common. The snow line is usually around 3,000ft.

ECM Looks horrible for cold the UK at 240z but look what's brewing to our north east over Svalbard and Scandinavia?

Watch out for the Faroes finger of cold on the 18z . All to play for !

Looking a bit like that rogue GEFS run that pushed in some cold air from the north a run or two ago.

The difference between the northern hemisphere profile from the 12z to the 18z post t168 is farcical. The para looks as though we will be going into the freezer again.

The difference between the northern hemisphere profile from the 12z to the 18z post t168 is farcical. The para looks as though we will be going into the freezer again.

Not sure about that, even the parallel flattens everything out this evening.

The trend today across the MO is for Atlantic lows to track further South after the initial cold incursion.

The GFS 18z para suggests a succession of lows crossing the middle of the UK in the medium term and disruptive snow to the North for a significant period. The GFS Op has also moved in the same direction but is not as extreme in it's output.

I detest IMBY posts on the model thread though, and so I'd say to those in the South that you could easily be in the firing line if the trend for more Southerly tracking lows continues.

18z mean for London now has 850's down to as low as -6.8C for Sunday on for a couple of days. BBC forecast said we are keeping an eye on the low pressure over Northern France. Beginning of February perhaps showing more promise as mean starts to fall.

GFS Para and 15 other runs show a cold blocked start to Feb, but the op and control are having none of it and maintain a zonal theme with brief cold snap  The para remains as tantalising eye-candy, but this time with a sinking Scandi.

All models show the zonal end to this cold snap, albeit we may get a snowy bonus from some polar lows. This vindicates the GFS and ECM’s showing these trends from over a week ago, but less certain is whether this zonal flow continues into Feb, or if we get a SSW induced block and Beast from the East: Still leaves us aboard the anticipation Rollercoaster.

Jetstream currently running S of UK but moves N to cross the UK and quite strong for the week of Mon 25th, breaking up into a series of quite large amplitude loops in the following week

FAX shows Christoph moving to create problems in Denmark but at the same time (Sat) a small but intense low running across N France with further troughs on Sunday. Meanwhile Scotland has some showery stuff from the N.

GFS has Cristoph decaying off N Norway Mon 25th; following week is mostly W=ly and mild but LpP comes further S later on Sun 31st close to N Scotland and then Thu 4th over Ireland. Sat 6th end of run sees something cold a deep developing Sof Iceland.

GEFS cool to Wed 27th, mild to Sun 31st, after which op and control close to norm but mean dragged down by a collection of cold or v cold runs. Rain throughout. Scotland never quite as mild and dry for a few days to start with.

ECM similar but more disturbances close to the NW in the W-ly flow than GFS

Parallel serves up a proper BFTE this morning albeit a slowly sinking one.

The parallel seems heavily biased in that favour, but I still maintain as I have done for weeks that there is no sign of winter for much of southern England.

I accept the north have had their fair share of snow this winter, but for a large swathe of England and Wales its been rain, rain, rain, and there is STILL absolutely no sign of this changing. Indeed, it's looking increasing like the last month of meteorological winter will be a zonal rain-fest and will maybe rival last year's wettest February.

I am ready to call winter, for what it was, being over for much of England from the Midlands southwards, and as I stated a few week's ago, flooding will be the main headline making news in the coming weeks. That is certainly the case this week, and I see this continuing.

ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Tunbridge Wells District | Meteologix.com

ECM ens broadly similar to GFS FWIW - chilly/cold then noticeably milder down here at least for a few days then a reasonable chance of a cool down as we head in to February. Edit: Forgot to mention whilst it's not a range to take seriously the ECM does have some colder members showing in early Feb, which have been pretty much absent before then, other than the occasional and brief dip towards -10 850s by what was presumably only a few members.

I don't think an awful lot has changed overnight - placement and track of the LPs of course but the general trend and pattern remains largely the same.  The longer term is, as it always is, TBC but at the moment I'd say the models are favouring a cooler early February than a milder one but at that range it can and probably will change quite a few times

Is the GEFS losing the cold February signal? Maybe a little but theres just enough carrot dangling this morning to keep us interested.  Para and Gem both end with easterlies. Ecm still has a snow event here Saturday night we live in hope.

ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Tunbridge Wells District | Meteologix.com

ECM ens broadly similar to GFS FWIW - chilly/cold then noticeably milder down here at least for a few days then a reasonable chance of a cool down as we head in to February. Edit: Forgot to mention whilst it's not a range to take seriously the ECM does have some colder members showing in early Feb, which have been pretty much absent before then, other than the occasional and brief dip towards -10 850s by what was presumably only a few members.

I don't think an awful lot has changed overnight - placement and track of the LPs of course but the general trend and pattern remains largely the same.  The longer term is, as it always is, TBC but at the moment I'd say the models are favouring a cooler early February than a milder one but at that range it can and probably will change quite a few times

Another nice analysis, thanks Dave.