This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during January, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard. 

For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for both January and for 2021 as a whole should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread. 

Historic CET summary for January 

1981-2010 4.4C (30 years)  

1991-2020 4.7C (30 years)  

2001-2020 4.7C (last 20 years)  

Last January was very warm with a CET of 6.4C. The previous year was slightly below average at 4.0C. The last very cold January was 2010 with 1.4C. Could we challenge that this year?  

Here is a chart of the January CET for all years since 1961

Direct link to larger version of the chart

Current model output   

First half of January looks cold. Lots of scatter by mid-month but that is quite normal at that range. General prognosis is cold for the foreseeable future.

GFS 850s https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

GFS T2m https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM looks to be similar to GFS - i.e. cold. 

ECM ENS http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

Met Office contingency planners outlook

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-jfm-v1.pdf

Probabilities favour something slightly above average for January. But the likelihood of a cold January is higher than in recent years. Precipitation  outlook is close to the mean - very slightly above average.

Edited by moderator 01 March 2021 10:30:31(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

I've gone cold but not excessively so. Had I gone for a crazy low CET the weather Gods would have seen to an exceptionally mild January because that's how the weather works in this country 😉

It's snowing here (Leyland) as I put my entry in....

Originally Posted by: Col

Is there a period of grace for getting entries in for this month?
If so I will send my prediction in.

Yes. It is absolutely fine to send in predictions during the course of today.

Met Office Hadley       0.5c.      Anomaly     -3.0c Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                    1.23c     Anomaly     -2.92c

Netweather                 1.77c     Anomaly     -2.44c

Peasedown St John    1.4c       Anomaly     -3.5c.  

I've been led astray by cold looking output at the start of winter months that have then gone on to be average to mild too many times to trust this one not to flip in the second half!

Originally Posted by: Col

And I'm surprised I'm so low down with 2.31C. I thought I was steering something of a middle course there, acknowledging the forecasts/models being cold for the reliable timeframe yet not getting away with the idea it would be a bitterly cold month.

I turned it around though to 3.2c and I’m not sure that was wise!  So good luck Col!  

Here is the final prediction table for January plus the annual CET predictions. For the latter I had to make a couple of minor changes to the later predictions where there was a duplication, so we have a unique winner when we get to the end of the year. There are a number of very similar predictions in the high 10.6's

Table 1

Table 2

Ah crud, I forgot about the annual CET.