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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 30 December 2020 12:33:20(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during January, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard. 

For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for both January and for 2021 as a whole should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread. 

Historic CET summary for January 

1981-2010 4.4C (30 years)  

1991-2020 4.7C (30 years)  

2001-2020 4.7C (last 20 years)  

Last January was very warm with a CET of 6.4C. The previous year was slightly below average at 4.0C. The last very cold January was 2010 with 1.4C. Could we challenge that this year?  

Here is a chart of the January CET for all years since 1961

Direct link to larger version of the chart

Current model output   

First half of January looks cold. Lots of scatter by mid-month but that is quite normal at that range. General prognosis is cold for the foreseeable future.

GFS 850s https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

GFS T2m https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM looks to be similar to GFS - i.e. cold. 

ECM ENS http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

Met Office contingency planners outlook

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-jfm-v1.pdf

Probabilities favour something slightly above average for January. But the likelihood of a cold January is higher than in recent years. Precipitation  outlook is close to the mean - very slightly above average.

Edited by moderator 01 March 2021 10:30:31(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

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Offline Global Warming  
#2 Posted : 31 December 2020 11:13:58(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Here is a first look at the January CET tracker

Chart1

Chart2

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline SJV  
#3 Posted : 31 December 2020 14:31:57(UTC)
SJV

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 22/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 19,724
Man
Location: Sheffield, 133m ASL

Tough one really! How cold to go?

I've gone cold but not excessively so. Had I gone for a crazy low CET the weather Gods would have seen to an exceptionally mild January because that's how the weather works in this country 😉

Follow/like Steel City Skies - Sheffield Weather Forecasting on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
Offline Stormchaser  
#4 Posted : 31 December 2020 17:44:46(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,076
Man
Location: West Hants

Liking the lack of comment on that CET tracker .

This certainly is a tricky start to the year for the competitors, with a cold pattern already in place prior to expected influence from a sudden stratospheric warming that will either sustain/intensify the cold setup or cause it to shift away from us.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline kendalian  
#5 Posted : 31 December 2020 23:30:41(UTC)
kendalian

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/12/2006(UTC)
Posts: 81

It's snowing here (Leyland) as I put my entry in....

Offline Col  
#6 Posted : 01 January 2021 07:45:04(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,713
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Is there a period of grace for getting entries in for this month?

If so I will send my prediction in.

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Global Warming  
#7 Posted : 01 January 2021 09:10:52(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post
Is there a period of grace for getting entries in for this month?
If so I will send my prediction in.

Yes. It is absolutely fine to send in predictions during the course of today.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Col  
#8 Posted : 01 January 2021 11:39:49(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,713
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

 

Yes. It is absolutely fine to send in predictions during the course of today.

Thanks!

PM just sent in and it's quite a month to predict No good just going for average plus a degree or so this month that's for sure. I imagine there will be quite a spread of predictions and I look forward to seeing what they are. I wonder if anyone will go for a sub-zero month? Unliikely of course but not completely beyond the bounds of possibilty.

 

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Caz  
#9 Posted : 02 January 2021 06:59:29(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 23,954
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

Liking the lack of comment on that CET tracker .

This certainly is a tricky start to the year for the competitors, with a cold pattern already in place prior to expected influence from a sudden stratospheric warming that will either sustain/intensify the cold setup or cause it to shift away from us.

We’re probably all a bit gobsmacked!  Usually the weather at the turn of the month tricks us with our predictions but it seems a bit different this month.  It’s hard to believe we could get a well below average CET, after months of above average!  
Happy New Year and good luck everyone!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition

Offline Global Warming  
#10 Posted : 02 January 2021 10:46:36(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Happy New Year everyone. Thanks everyone for your lovely comments and for joining the 2021 competition. We have just over 40 entries so far. If anyone would still like to join I will give you until the end of today to send me a PM.

Also if you have not yet made a prediction for the 2021 annual CET and would like to do so, I will keep this open for another couple of days.

Here are the predictions for January. A nice spread to start the year.

Chart 1

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline ARTzeman  
#11 Posted : 02 January 2021 10:51:38(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,253
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       0.5c.      Anomaly     -3.0c Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                    1.23c     Anomaly     -2.92c

Netweather                 1.77c     Anomaly     -2.44c

Peasedown St John    1.4c       Anomaly     -3.5c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Taylor1740  
#12 Posted : 02 January 2021 13:36:46(UTC)
Taylor1740

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/12/2011(UTC)
Posts: 535
Location: Leeds

Sorry GW I actually meant + 2.5c!
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#13 Posted : 02 January 2021 19:14:34(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 243
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Aylesbury, Bucks

I can't believe I'm so high up the table with 3.7C !

I've been led astray by cold looking output at the start of winter months that have then gone on to be average to mild too many times to trust this one not to flip in the second half!

Offline Col  
#14 Posted : 03 January 2021 06:32:15(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,713
Location: Bolton 160m asl

And I'm surprised I'm so low down with 2.31C. I thought I was steering something of a middle course there, acknowledging the forecasts/models being cold for the reliable timeframe yet not getting away with the idea it would be a bitterly cold month.

Edited by user 03 January 2021 06:45:10(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Caz  
#15 Posted : 03 January 2021 10:12:18(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 23,954
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

And I'm surprised I'm so low down with 2.31C. I thought I was steering something of a middle course there, acknowledging the forecasts/models being cold for the reliable timeframe yet not getting away with the idea it would be a bitterly cold month.

I very nearly went for 2.3c, using my usual prediction expertise - gut feeling or lucky numbers - 23rd January is my birthday!   

I turned it around though to 3.2c and I’m not sure that was wise!  So good luck Col!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition

Offline ARTzeman  
#16 Posted : 03 January 2021 11:39:49(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,253
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       0.5c        Anomaly       -3.0c Provisional to 2nd

Metcheck                    1.14c      Anomaly       -3.01c

Netweather                 1.63c      Anomaly       -2.58c

Peasedown St John    1.27c      Anomaly       -3.69c.     

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Global Warming  
#17 Posted : 03 January 2021 21:11:24(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Here is the final prediction table for January plus the annual CET predictions. For the latter I had to make a couple of minor changes to the later predictions where there was a duplication, so we have a unique winner when we get to the end of the year. There are a number of very similar predictions in the high 10.6's

Table 1

Table 2

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Sussex snow magnet  
#18 Posted : 04 January 2021 10:32:39(UTC)
Sussex snow magnet

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 214
Man
Location: Sussex

Thanks for all you efforts GW, have you got the table you posted last year with the cummulative records since the competition began?
Online Bolty  
#19 Posted : 04 January 2021 10:34:31(UTC)
Bolty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 4,906
Man
Location: Blackrod, near Chorley, Lancs - alt: 156m

Ah crud, I forgot about the annual CET.

Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station

Offline ARTzeman  
#20 Posted : 04 January 2021 11:07:50(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,253
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley     1.0c     Anomaly       -2.4c provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                  1.56c   Anomaly       -2.57c

Netweather               2.06c   Anomaly       -2.15c

Peasedown St John   1.5c    Anomaly       -3.4c.   

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

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