As we are now into a new season, I thought that it would be a good idea to start off this thread.

Of course, we could get a cold winter this time in which case there might be more gloats than moans on here but if this winter ends up being anything like the last two winters, I would then expect this thread to become rather busy.

We all know that this is where Richard from Aberdeen excels on this forum and I look forward to seeing his contributions to this thread in due course, although I will also be equally interested to see what others have to say as well.

 

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Met Office CPF really couldn't be worse from a cold winter perspective. I don't think I've EVER seen a lower percentage chance of a cold winter in a forecast before. Could be historic.

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Met Office CPF really couldn't be worse from a cold winter perspective. I don't think I've EVER seen a lower percentage chance of a cold winter in a forecast before. Could be historic.

I hope we see a repeat of the BBQ summer fiasco

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Met Office CPF really couldn't be worse from a cold winter perspective. I don't think I've EVER seen a lower percentage chance of a cold winter in a forecast before. Could be historic.

Although in the short term of course, the outlook is at the very least 'interesting'. So there may well be more gloats than moans in the near future though no doubt some moaning from those who failed to get the snow they were 'promised' :)

 

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Met Office CPF really couldn't be worse from a cold winter perspective. I don't think I've EVER seen a lower percentage chance of a cold winter in a forecast before. Could be historic.

Yes I saw the glosea 5 seasonal model. I think they are over doing the mild zonality really yet, I thought last winter was bad in terms of persistent mild wet weather and whilst last winter the Met forecast a 'slightly milder than average winter' it wasn't forecast to be as mild as this 20/21 winter so I wonder why!? What is this based on? from what source? My guess is that this is based on a Super strong La Nina and the Westerly QBO? - But we all know the easterly QBO is strengthening higher up in stratosphere 10hpa pushing down to 30hpa and what was forecast to be a strong la Nina looks like it will now be a weak to maybe moderate and the most, because the CFSv2 forecast for the ENSO 3.4 region has backed away from a strong La Nina and it may have already reached it's peak back in November yet the eastern Pacific has cooled down further and the NE PACIFIC has cooled too so interesting signs...

All this could increase the chances of a SSW!? We shall see. Plus if we have a SSW then things could well change couldn't they as we all know?

I just don't know how the met are so confident for a warmer than average winter!? 

Back to the moaning - Still no frost here this December and little signs of snow unless you're over the Moors. Looks like cold rain for us here in Exeter during this so called 'cold snap'. 

At least December (Winter) is only 3 days old. Also positives for cold weather fans like myself are - zonal winds weakening and the two index's of the atmosphere (AO & NAO) are going negative simultaneously. 

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Last winter here in Chichester I did not see a single snow flake fall from the sky....the BBC weather app is showing sleet here tomorrow between 7.00am and 9.00am. Based on forecast temperatures and local knowledge, I’d say the chance of seeing a falling snow flake amongst the rain here tomorrow is about 0.5% and that is being generous!

Absolute horror start to winter yet again which suggests this season is just going to go the same way as all the other garbage masquerading as winter over the past decade 

While Edinburgh gets thundersnow and widespread reports of snow across the country all we have here, which used to be the prime location for snow but is now the most boring place on the planet for weather, is the vilest muck imaginable as we mark 22 months since the last lying snow 

Wet, dull, depressing and just about the mildest temperatures in the country at 6.7C. I checked the Isles of Scilly and it's the same there

Absolutely LUDICROUS. Western Isles weather in summer and Scilly Isles weather in winter. Nothing short of an endurance test living here 

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Who writes the Met Office text forecasts?

NW England

A fine and dry day with sunny spells.

Today:

A largely dry morning with early cloud clearing to sunny spells. The dry weather will persist across the region into the afternoon. Light winds. Feeling cold.

This was posted at 4am.

Has no one looked at the radar?

 

Poor

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Met Office CPF really couldn't be worse from a cold winter perspective. I don't think I've EVER seen a lower percentage chance of a cold winter in a forecast before. Could be historic.

Yes, I saw this and wasn't hugely surprised.  Their modelling must be indicating once this tendency for the jet to dip southwards just to our west has been neutralised by the week before Christmas, that the Azores/Euro High will assert its pre-eminence and dominance over our weather, and bowling bowl lows will play off its northern edge, leaving us in an alternating mix of less unsettled HP influence from the S, and more unsettled westerly mild then cool interludes, bringing the prospect of a distinct lack of frost and snow, more perpetual autumn once this early season hiccup has been rectified.   The new normal.

I hope in my heart this is wrong, but get the sense in my head the Met Office CPF  prediction is sniffing the scent of this winter, which would mean that it becomes even more important that our current northern blocking can somehow stubbornly defy the odds through to Christmas, and makes this hope even more important in terms of how the winter will play out. A decline of northern blocking before Christmas could prove calamitous to the prospects of a decent winter season.

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Well well, it's -1.0c here in Exeter with spits of light showery rain!!? - Check the latest rainfall radar. Of course it's below freezing but precipitation falls as rain and falls on frozen frosty cars and grounds. Even a rainbow. Must be due to the high uppers?  How annoying.
Edit* - Sorry, -0.8c here now!

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A horrid day today, with cloud and rain for most of it. It was just 4°C at dinner time today, with rain lashing down, so absolutely awful.

Last night, this was very close to a freezing rain event. Surely some colder areas may have seen this.

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I have a theory that chasing that elusive cold/snowy nirvana in the lead up to Xmas makes the time fly faster than I want it to, diminishing my enjoyment of the lead up to Xmas. This is probably a personal thing that only applies to me, but it would be an awful lot easier if we could just have a repeat of December 10 each year

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It's not a moan as such but it could turn into one eventually. I know snow here is getting to be a rarity so I have a habit of looking at the web cams around the world to see who are the lucky ones that get it all, one in particular is the Michigan snowman cam, I regularly watch this at this time of year because they are always snowed under and I like to see the animals and birds that frequent the spot because of food that is put down for them. The last ten years or so the snow at this time is pretty deep but this year they have had very little, two short falls that have disappeared within a day or two so although coldish there it's a lot dryer than normal. Quite disappointing as it's been a guaranteed snow fix for me up until now. Maybe it's coming later this year, who knows, but it's not normal for that spot as it arrives mid to late November every year.

 

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A horrid day today, with cloud and rain for most of it. It was just 4°C at dinner time today, with rain lashing down, so absolutely awful.

Last night, this was very close to a freezing rain event. Surely some colder areas may have seen this.

Same again today, sans the rain. It's been so dull, it was more or less dark by 16:00. At least Monday sees the earliest sunset here, so we finally start heading in the right direction soon.

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Dull, miserable and damp sums it up here!? - So depressing indeed.

Crazy to think zonal winds at 10hpa are weakening and the fact we are entering an exceptionally negative -AO and -NAO yet still fail to get proper cold wintry weather. :/

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I've got to have a chuckle as the yearly seesaw is in full motion right now, it's great to listen to you guys when the models tip one way or the other and so quick, honestly to us guys that just listen to you boys go from one extreme to the other morning and evening is fascinating and funny at the same time. I know how frustrating it is for you lot but I for one have to find the funny side of things or I'd go mad like some of you.

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Met Office CPF really couldn't be worse from a cold winter perspective. I don't think I've EVER seen a lower percentage chance of a cold winter in a forecast before. Could be historic.

Seems like the norm. Getting snow feels like pulling teeth now and 2018 seems like a blip in an otherwise largely snow-free run of winters since 2013/14.

At this point I feel like you might as well embrace it. Get those hardy palms planted. 

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Embrace the most revolting, soul destroying and repellent conditions to be found anywhere on earth? I think not.

Never mind snow, it's becoming an ordeal to even get a frost. Absolutely unreal for 57 degrees north. The worst winters on earth. Where else is there no hope of getting frost, snow or warm sunshine? Just endless misery.

It's either zonality or the unadultered horror we have at the moment. Nothing else on offer any more. It's the equivalent of having a choice for a meal of either a bowl of gruel , with an accompaniment of stale bread and hard boiled potatoes, or a plate of dog muck laced with strychnine. There really is only one viable option as the other will kill you and this sure as hell is sucking the life out of me.

No words in the English language could do justice to this atrocity of a winter. A league below even the worst of the past 7 years of unprecedented horror. Relentless rain and gloom. It hasn't let up all week. Haven't been able to get outdoors for exercise once. Never in my life have I endured such a horrific week where every lunchtime has been a soggy wet washout 

It's ridiculous beyond words. When I was at school I only recall once when there was even two consecutive wet intervals.  Feels like our weather is now constantly influenced by the North Sea. Everywhere else the rain bands pass through whereas here it stagnates and turns into a relentless onslaught with is no respite. No sooner has one weather warning for rain/floods expired than another one has been put in place 

Feeling tired and lathargic constantly due to the needing the light on all day and being unable to get fresh air which should be considered a basic human right. Had a terrible, disturbed nights sleep due to the rain and vile rattling wind.

It's just unrelenting horror with no end in sight. I predicted a frost-free December and while we did get a frost last week I wouldn't be at all surprised if it's into the new year before there's another one. 

The first five months of the year were the driest in over 160 years but the annual total looks as though it will be close to or even above average. A disgusting reflection of how monumentally vile it has been since June with the very worst saved till last.

Getting even two months as bad as June, August or October would make for a truly terrible period. Add what we endured in mid-November and now this putrid December into the mix and it's off the scale of horrors.

A living hell 

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Embrace the most revolting, soul destroying and repellent conditions to be found anywhere on earth? I think not.

Never mind snow, it's becoming an ordeal to even get a frost. Absolutely unreal for 57 degrees north. The worst winters on earth. Where else is there no hope of getting frost, snow or warm sunshine? Just endless misery.

It's either zonality or the unadultered horror we have at the moment. Nothing else on offer any more. It's the equivalent of having a choice for a meal of either a bowl of gruel , with an accompaniment of stale bread and hard boiled potatoes, or a plate of dog muck laced with strychnine. There really is only one viable option as the other will kill you and this sure as hell is sucking the life out of me.

No words in the English language could do justice to this atrocity of a winter. A league below even the worst of the past 7 years of unprecedented horror. Relentless rain and gloom. It hasn't let up all week. Haven't been able to get outdoors for exercise once. Never in my life have I endured such a horrific week where every lunchtime has been a soggy wet washout 

It's ridiculous beyond words. When I was at school I only recall once when there was even two consecutive wet intervals.  Feels like our weather is now constantly influenced by the North Sea. Everywhere else the rain bands pass through whereas here it stagnates and turns into a relentless onslaught with is no respite. No sooner has one weather warning for rain/floods expired than another one has been put in place 

Feeling tired and lathargic constantly due to the needing the light on all day and being unable to get fresh air which should be considered a basic human right. Had a terrible, disturbed nights sleep due to the rain and vile rattling wind.

It's just unrelenting horror with no end in sight. I predicted a frost-free December and while we did get a frost last week I wouldn't be at all surprised if it's into the new year before there's another one. 

The first five months of the year were the driest in over 160 years but the annual total looks as though it will be close to or even above average. A disgusting reflection of how monumentally vile it has been since June with the very worst saved till last.

Getting even two months as bad as June, August or October would make for a truly terrible period. Add what we endured in mid-November and now this putrid December into the mix and it's off the scale of horrors.

A living hell 

 

Have you ever considered applying for a job with the Aberdeen tourist board? 

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