Bit miffed at the MJO waking up, against the norm for a La Nina October, so interfering with the pattern... but what can you do?
It's the sort of shorter-timescale variation that will always limit long-range forecasting capabilities beyond the broad direction of travel across 3+ weeks at a time.
The final two days really are looking mild at the moment - GFS 12z for example averages in the mid-teens, raising my rough CET estimate from 10.4 to 10.65°C!
Typical adjustments would then leave us in the ballpark of GW's latest estimate.
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https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On