@ Tally - I wouldn't worry too much , just ................yet , these charts changed every single run doing a complete U turn

 

Thanks Marcus, could you send me link to above please? - I have this link you sent - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=0&mode=8&carte=0&run=10

I have found this...?

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JFF - CFS does like the blocking scenario 

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The forecast for the strength of the zonal winds at 10hp are indicative of a negative AO/NAO: - Looks set to last throughout the rest of October all of November and into December as well. - Even with the CFS bias corrected!

http://www.weatheriscool.com/prod/gfs/eps/strat/u10serie_cfsRawCorrGefs.png

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all these LRF are interesting to see. However from memory, Im sure we get similar every year until the Atlantic awakens in November/December? Then all bets are off and its a case of forecasting when will the Atlantic pause

Whats is the basis for thinking this year will be different? (not being argumentative, Im interested on what different)

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all these LRF are interesting to see. However from memory, Im sure we get similar every year until the Atlantic awakens in November/December? Then all bets are off and its a case of forecasting when will the Atlantic pause

Whats is the basis for thinking this year will be different? (not being argumentative, Im interested on what different)

 

The fact the AO/NAO is negative and the strength of zonal winds at 10hpa over Arctic remain weaker on both the CFS Bias corrected and and the CFS for the next two months! - Of course things may change - perhaps like last year on the first day of winter (1st December) the zonal winds will go positive as well the AO and NAO and we could have the Polar vortex of doom - i hope not but it's usually the case and I remember after the cooler snap early December during winter 2019 Brian said something like 'this could well be the last/only cold snap of the winter' - when winter was only days old and I thought he was having a laugh but he was right! However below looks promising doesn't it? It's not unusual to get snow in October or November...!? So who knows...?

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all these LRF are interesting to see. However from memory, Im sure we get similar every year until the Atlantic awakens in November/December? Then all bets are off and its a case of forecasting when will the Atlantic pause

Whats is the basis for thinking this year will be different? (not being argumentative, Im interested on what different)

 

Think you are right blocked October's seem to occur regularly frequently .

 

There is always some hope to grab onto each year , one factor which might be beneficial but whether it makes a difference given how many factors are at play who knows.

This year isn't it Easterly QBO and coming out of a solar minimum? 

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Think you are right blocked October's seem to occur regularly frequently .

 

There is always some hope to grab onto each year , one factor which might be beneficial but whether it makes a difference given how many factors are at play who knows.

This year isn't it Easterly QBO and coming out of a solar minimum? 

Yes that's the other issue is that we are not in an easterly QBO and by now we should be in a mature easterly QBO:

 

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An Easterly QBO guarantees us nothing , I am more interested in the Zonal wind forecast , if that's weak then we have half a chance  , even if from cold NWlies  

Obviously its just a forecast and doesn't mean it will come off 

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That would do me as we approached December 

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Coming as a susprise to nobody, I expect, the ECM has been busy backtracking on its forecast of a sustained weaker-than-normal vortex to end the autumn. It's now pretty much dead on average throughout... what are the odds of it going generally above average in the next update, I wonder?

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202010150000

(Use the dropdown top left to see previous forecasts)

 

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Not sure where this will fit in in terms of topic but it's related to winter' - there has been a rapid increase in snowcover over past week over perhaps 2/3 of Russia/Siberia and into Scandinavia!

 

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

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CFS has flipped cold for November:

 

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CFS has flipped cold for November:

If you're using the NCEP suite I would pay more attention to the GEFS35.

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If you're using the NCEP suite I would pay more attention to the GEFS35.

Thanks Brian - Could you send me the link to this above 850hpa 35 day chart?

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HI Brian

I am not sure if you made changes to the layout but it use to show 'charts' at top - it now shows models so clicked on it and found the long range CFS NECP monthly forecast - however it doesn't show the 850hpa anomaly like it previously did!? Is there a way to display this?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cfs.aspx 

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Oh Dear - The CFS monthly today:

 

November - Mild damp and zonal!

 

December:

Warm and wet - again very zonal!

 

January: - Warm and dry!

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HI Brian

I am not sure if you made changes to the layout but it use to show 'charts' at top - it now shows models so clicked on it and found the long range CFS NECP monthly forecast - however it doesn't show the 850hpa anomaly like it previously did!? Is there a way to display this?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cfs.aspx

 

Just click on the N hemisphere button to see a list of the available charts.

I may add some more soon but TBH I'm not sure how much value the CFS adds (on TWO or any other website TBH)

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Just click on the N hemisphere button to see a list of the available charts.

I may add some more soon but TBH I'm not sure how much value the CFS adds (on TWO or any other website TBH)

Thanks! 

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It's in from AccuWeather (Winter 2020/21 forecast for Europe!) - It's vague from AccuWeather re temperatures but from my understanding a drier winter is on the cards for many northern and western parts of Europe:

Does Infrequent Storms over Scandinavia an indication of blocking there?

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2020-2021-europe-winter-forecast/834961

 

This is interesting re southern Europe and stormier conditions there and not HP to our south..

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“Having a southern storm track at times throughout the winter months will be beneficial for Spain and Portugal as the winter months make up their wet season and help to replenish the reservoirs for the rest of the year,” Roys said.

 

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A month early for my liking from CFS 

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