This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during October, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard.
For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for October should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread.
Historic CET summary for October
1971-2000 10.4C (30 years)
1981-2010 10.7C (30 years)
2000-2019 11.2C (last 20 years)
The warmest October in recent times was 13.3C in 2001, the warmest of record. 13C was also reached in 2005 and 2006. 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2017 all saw the CET close to 12.5C. 2003 was the coldest recent year at 9.2C. 2008 and 2012 were also below 10C. Last year was on the cool side at 10.0C.
Here is a chart of the October CET for all years since 1961
Direct link to larger version of the chart
IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page
Current model output
GFS 850s consistency below average for the whole of the first half of October. Quite a striking trend there. Surface temperatures struggling to reach 14C in London on average.
GFS 850 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=
GFS T2m https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=
ECM looks no better based on the De Bilt data.
ECM ENS http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png
Met Office contingency planners outlook
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-son-v2.pdf
Probability forecast for October suggesting something slightly above average is the most likely scenario but not much above 10C. The three month outlook seems much closer to average suggesting cooler conditions in late Autumn.
Rainfall for October looks average with wetter conditions beyond that.
Edited by moderator
30 November 2020 10:43:29
|
Reason: Not specified