I think you're confusing occasional accuracy with reliable medium range forecasting.

If you think back to the old Countryfile forecasts they would only ever look out towards the end of the week, just 4-5 days ahead, and frequently the predctions for end of the week were very vague. Now the forecasters routinely look out a week to 10 days with similar levels of accuracy.

The verification stats show the improvement in model accuracy so my view is backed by the evidence.

 

Little more than 40 years ago there were occasions when the evening forecast was entirely wrong just 12-24 hours later.

15th October 1987 was one very famous occasion when the BBC evening forecast went spectacularly wrong, and less than 12 hours later too.

 

15th October 1987 was one very famous occasion when the BBC evening forecast went spectacularly wrong, and less than 12 hours later too.

But interestingly very nearly correct a week earlier on the 'week ahead' forecast.

FAX - LP 978mb Brittany today, centre moves to Englnd 975mb tomorrow (Sun), 989mb E Scotland Monday (but with a trough running round its southern flank) 987mb Hebrides Tue, 985mb S of Iceland Wed, associated fronts active to Tue

GFS - follows the pattern of Fax to Tue but lp still close to UK Wd and then sudden deepening 975mb E Scotland Fri 9th (GFS has been interested in developing such a storm but it hasn't appeared on every forecast). Ridge of HP on Atlantic Sun 11th toppling across UK and persisting weakly with LP N and S of it to Sat 17th but eventually the Atlantic wins with LP moving towards Ireland Mon 19th

GEFS - temp profile as yestrerday, cool around the 11th, back to norm around 19th (Scotland back to norm earlierbut uncertainly so;  the op has a late burst of warmth for everyone), rain for next few days and another peak on the 9th, various runs have intermittent rain thereafter

ECM matches GFS except that the storm shown by GFS on Fri 9th is a milder affair at 995mb. The ridge later on across the UK is stronger, too

Should dry out the effects of Alex....hope this Azores high migration doesnt verify.....if that moves to Iberia and expands  could be a cruel blow to cold weather lovers.....

Should dry out the effects of Alex....hope this Azores high migration doesnt verify.....if that moves to Iberia and expands  could be a cruel blow to cold weather lovers.....

I'd be more concerned for cold weather fans had this been Dec/Jan/Feb - but this is mid-October so hardly a blow to cold weather fans

 

I'd be more concerned for cold weather fans had this been Dec/Jan/Feb - but this is mid-October so hardly a blow to cold weather fans

 True......

---

Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

Jetstream - current cut-off low breaking up and normal W-E flow but S of UK by Tue 6th; the flow moving N and forming a minor loop Fri 9th but introducing strong N-S stream behind it Sun 11th;; that and further perturbations giving more cut-off lows Balearics Tue 13th and Corsica Fri 16th; at this time the stream in our region is N of the UK but that again buckles and forms a broad loop SW Approaches Tue 20th.

GFS -current LP filling but new one developing and moving NE to Shetland 980mb Fri 9th; followed by ridge of HP mostly out to W until Sat 17th  when it full topples over the UK for a couple of days but displaced by new LP W of Ireland 9985mb Tue 20th

GEFS - temps mostly below norm, notably around Sun 11th rising to norm Wed 14th and mean staying there but wide variation in runs. Rain here and there now and then ; best chance of dry spell around Tue 13th. Scotland with extra rainfall Fri 9th.

ECM - like GFS at first but LP Fri 9th much weaker; and ridge of HP moves from Atlantic more quickly to lie across S of UK Wed 14th

GFS - current LP drifting N and filling 995mb Iceland Thu 8th; instead of yesterday's forecast of a deep depression near Scotland we have a Channel 'runner' on that day (BBC saying exact extent N-wards uncertain). Ridge of HP on Atlantic Sun 11th trying to move over UK in the following week (quite a lot of N-ly source of air) but eventually pushed back by LP developing near Iceland Sun 18th running south over UK down to Biscay Tue 20th. 

GEFS - Apart from brief bump up ca Fri 9th generally cool (ca 7C below norm Sun 11th), mean of runs then back to norm but with enormous variation (on Tue 20th for the S Coast you can pick a run from 8C above norm to 12C below! Other areas not much better) Wet Fri 9th in S (FAX suggests Thu 8th) then dry-ish for a week before pptn increasing again. S Scotland/N England rather dryer throughout.

ECM - similar to GFS but at end of run Thu 15th brings the ridge of HP further E and just about covers the UK

If found it surprising that the broadcast media were touting a potential stormy Thursday this morning when more or less across the board the 00Z output has dropped the idea. The 06Z GFS now only has a shallow wave.

Maybe because a shallow wave feature isn't newsworthy? Plus, people will just blame the forecasters for 'getting it wrong again' instead of the usual suspects in the tabloid media.

😉

Just noticed there are a couple of cold runs in the GEFS 12z tonight.

The wave depression on Thu/Fri giving the models a headache. Now showing as two separate events, much less rain on Thursday than forecast 2 days ago and local to S England anyway; FAX for Friday looking as if the wave will develop further E, in southern N Sea, and be chased out of he way by a cold front from the NW

GFS - wraps both the above up in LP over Denmark by Sun 11th; N-lies to follow but yesterday's ridge of HP now only transient with LP developing on Atlantic and moving to UK Tue 13th 1005mb before another depression sets up W of Scotland Thu 15th and wallows around out there before running S to Biscay Wed 21st

GEFS - normal temp and wet in S) around Thu 9th but cooler and less wet in N; cool and dry for a few days before back to norm Thu 16th with big uncertainties (Brian posted a couple of cold runs above but you could also cherrypick warm ones) and rain intermittently from Tue 13th, no big amounts.

ECM - prolongs the ridge of HP in Atlantic from Sun 11th but places vigorous LP over Belgium Thu 15th (no hint of this on GFS) before agreeing with GFS about LP on Atlantic Fri 16th

The 00z GFS has just p***ed on the idea of a settled mid-October while ECM is hanging onto it, but I expect that model to fall in line with GFS in subsequent runs. 

Let's see what the GFS 06z run has to say.  

The 00z GFS has just p***ed on the idea of a settled mid-October while ECM is hanging onto it, but I expect that model to fall in line with GFS in subsequent runs. 

Let's see what the GFS 06z run has to say.  

The 0z ensembles show three distinct rain spikes in line with upticks in 850's in the next week. 

Still looks quite unsettled to me 

Was that the first snow row for London in the GEFS?

Well spotted - P16, blink and you'll miss it! 

Two months too early for cold fans:

 

Well spotted - P16, blink and you'll miss it! 

No, there was one yesterday too, p17 on the 12 z IIRC.

Just white noise really.