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September UK Temperature analysis and discussion
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,102  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 15.6c Anomaly 1.6c Metcheck 15.23c Anomaly 1.57c Netweather 15.85c Anomaly 2.16c Peasedown St John 14.84c Anomaly 2.31c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 49,189 Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Stormchaser  Never mind finishing above 15°C, the last GFS run called into question finishing above 14°C! The 12z gives me a final CET estimate in the high 13s - but it's a particularly cool run for next Friday onward. The 06z led to a low 14s estimate and to my eyes, the 12z ECM looks to be headed along a similar path as of day ten. Much like with August, there's a cool-warm-cool shape to the month unfolding. Also like that month, the degree of error for be looks to me mainly down to the magnitude of warmth during the middle phase - though it's not out of the question that something like the GFS 12z unfolds and makes the cool final phase the main source of error instead. We are in a La Nina now, after all - mid-Atlantic ridges have boosted odds. Oh, FFS |
"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 49,189 Location: St Helens
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If the impending cooler spell does drag the CET down into the low-14's it'll be the 3rd or 4th time this year alone where a big change late in the month (that was unforeseen) has stopped me doing better, and allowing others to salvage what would/should have been a bad month for them. I know the CET comp is only a bit of fun, but it's a bit frustrating. I don't mind being way out when I've totally misread it, but to guess the general pattern right (coolish, warming, warm, cooler) and seem to be on the money halfway through the month, only to be undone by some extreme at the end is annoying. |
"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,102 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 15.5c Anomaly 1.5c. Provisional to 18th. Metcheck 15.18c Anomaly 1.46c Netweather 15.76c Anomaly 2.07c Peasedown St John 14.9c Anomaly 2.37c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,102 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley No change 15.5c Anomaly 1.5c Provisional to 19th Metcheck No change 15.18c Anomaly 1.46c Netweather N0 change 15.76c Anomaly 2.07c Peasedown St John 14.91c Anomaly 2.38c |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,102 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 15.5c Anomaly 1.6c. Provisional to 20th. Metcheck 15.11c Anomaly 1.38c Netweather 15.76c Anomaly 2.07c Peasedown St john 15.0c Anomaly 2.47c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 49,189 Location: St Helens
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Amazed the CET actually decreased between the 18th and 20th. Was lovely here. |
"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 35,372 
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Nights have been cooling down Saint.  |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 49,189 Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Gavin P Nights have been cooling down Saint. True, but they've only been getting down to 9/10c, whilst daytime maxes are topping 20-22c I wouldn't have thought that a daily CET of 15-16c would lead to a reduction in a 15.6c rolling CET when we're two-thirds through the month. |
"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,117  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow True, but they've only been getting down to 9/10c, whilst daytime maxes are topping 20-22c I wouldn't have thought that a daily CET of 15-16c would lead to a reduction in a 15.6c rolling CET when we're two-thirds through the month. Been down to 6c here though. |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 49,189 Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Caz Been down to 6c here though. Really?  |
"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,102 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 15.5c Anomaly 1.6c Metcheck 15.43c Anomaly 1.40c Netweather 15.73c Anomaly 2.04c Peasedown St John 15.05c Anomaly 2.5c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 49,189 Location: St Helens
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We could now see 4 of the last 8 days with CET returns below 10c, and the others generally between 10-13c. That's going drag the CET down to around 14.2c to 14.5c. Bugger. |
"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/06/2008(UTC)
Posts: 1,957
Location: Nottinghamshire
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Really? And here.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,117 Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Really? Yes, with very clear nights. It was actually 5.2c on 18th and 5.8c on 21st. |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,102 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 15.5c Anomaly 1.6c. Provisional to 22nd. Metcheck 15.21c Anomaly 1.49c Netweather 15.77c Anomaly 2.08c Peasedown St John 15.01c Anomaly 2.48c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 49,189 Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Caz Yes, with very clear nights. It was actually 5.2c on 18th and 5.8c on 21st. Didn't get into single figures here - indeed earlyish Monday morning (8am) the temp was 12.1c with thin cloud cover (that burnt off by around 10am). Just hoping that nights this week are cloudy to keep the minimums up, whilst the days reach a degree or two higher than forecasted. Would love to have made an 'out on a limb' forecast and been close. |
"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 21,117 Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Thinking of GW today. It’s his dad’s funeral. X |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,102 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 15.4c Anomaly 1.6c. Provisional to 23rd. Metcheck 15.04c Anomaly 1.31c Netweather 15.7c Anomaly 2.01c Peasedown St John 14.88c Anomaly 2.35c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 28,102 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 25.2c Anomaly 1.4c. Provisional to 24th Metcheck 14.80c Anomaly 1.08c Netweather 15.47c Anomaly 1.78c Peasedown St John 14.56c Anomaly 2.03c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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September UK Temperature analysis and discussion
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